US embassy cable - 05ALMATY1508

UNCLAS ALMATY 001508 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CACEN (MUDGE), DRL/PHD (DAVIS) 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, KZ, 2005 Election, POLITICAL 
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN: BAIMENOV WING OF AK ZHOL RE-REGISTERS, 
PLANS TO FIELD PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE 
 
REF: ALMATY 1081 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Alikhan Baimenov has re-registered Ak 
Zhol in a very short time, thereby confirming his status as 
the party's sole leader and giving credence to conventional 
wisdom that the GOK supports him.  He nevertheless appears 
to be taking great pains to underscore the fact that Ak 
Zhol remains an opposition party.  On April 8, Baimenov 
announced that Ak Zhol would field a presidential 
candidate; observers unanimously believe it will be 
Baimenov himself.  Given his popularity in the regions, he 
has the ability to attract significant numbers of 
opposition voters away from "For a Just Kazakhstan" 
candidate Zharmakhan Tuyakbay.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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Baimenov Gains GOK Recognition of "His" Ak Zhol 
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2. (U) In an April 9 roundtable discussion at the Politon 
Dispute Club in Almaty, Ak Zhol chairman Alikhan Baimenov 
announced that his wing of the party had successfully re- 
registered with the Ministry of Justice.  (Reftel described 
split between Baimenov and Abilov, Zhandosov, and 
Sarsenbaiuly.)  Specifically, the MOJ confirmed changes in 
the party's charter providing for a single chairman instead 
of the previous arrangement of five co-chairs.  Baimenov 
claimed that the party had not lost any members due to the 
split, because the other former co-chairs had not organized 
parallel branches in the regions. 
 
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And Announces Plans for Ak Zhol Presidential Candidate 
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3. (SBU) Confirming the predictions of many observers at 
the time of the split (reftel), Baimenov announced that Ak 
Zhol will participate in the upcoming presidential 
elections.  He refused to say whether he himself would be 
the candidate, however, saying only "we'll see."  Baimenov 
also ducked a question about Ak Zhol's attitude toward the 
candidacy of "For a Just Kazakhstan" (FJK) leader 
Zharmakhan Tuyakbay. 
 
4. (U) Baimenov took pains to emphasize that Ak Zhol 
remains an opposition party.  He reaffirmed previous party 
decisions, such as refusal to participate in the National 
Commission on Democracy and Civil Society; demanding the 
release of Galymzhan Zhakiyanov; criticism of the fall 
parliamentary elections; and support for the creation of 
FJK.  Baimenov alleged that he had tried to join FJK but 
was threatened with legal action by Bulat Abilov. 
 
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Release of Critical Analysis of Elections 
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5. (SBU) In an announcement that may have been designed to 
reinforce the party's opposition credibility, the Ak Zhol- 
affiliated National Research Institute (NRI) released on 
March 28 a scathing analysis of the fall parliamentary 
elections.  Based on a study of officially announced 
election results and protocols from approximately 60% of 
polling stations, NRI concluded that Ak Zhol had been 
stripped of "thousands or possibly tens of thousands" of 
votes in two key regions during tabulation.  NRI also noted 
that Dariga Nazarbayeva's Asar party and the Agrarian Party- 
Civic Party bloc (AIST) had also lost significant numbers 
of votes. 
 
6. (SBU) COMMENT:  The ease and speed with which Baimenov 
was able to re-register Ak Zhol, thereby taking full 
control of the party's name and much of the staff, appears 
to validate the conventional wisdom that the GOK has chosen 
Baimenov's side in the party split.  He is the only major 
figure in the new Ak Zhol and thus the presumed 
presidential candidate.  With his popularity in the regions 
and likely access to administrative resources, Baimenov 
could draw significant opposition votes away from Tuyakbay. 
END COMMENT. 
 
7. (U) Minimize considered for Dushanbe. 
 
ORDWAY 
 
 
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