US embassy cable - 05VATICAN463

UNCLAS  VATICAN 000463 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT. FOR EUR/WE (LEVIN) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, VT 
SUBJECT: TOWARD THE CONCLAVE PART I:  THE ELECTION OF A NEW POPE 
 
REF: VATICAN 0367 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (U) On Monday, April 18 following nine days of official 
mourning after the burial of Pope John Paul II, 115 cardinals 
will gather in the Vatican's Sistine Chapel to elect a new pope. 
 This cable -- the first in a series looking toward the conclave 
-- outlines the election procedures and provides some basic 
selection criteria for the next pope.  Post recommends 
preparations be made for a five to ten person Presidential 
delegation to represent the United States at the Mass marking 
the beginning of the new pope's ministry as leader of the 
Catholic Church, which is likely to take place between April 25 
and May 1.  End summary. 
 
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Electing a New Pope:  The Conclave 
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2. (U) The conclave to elect a new pope will begin on April 18 
at 1630 CET (1030 EDT) inside the Sistine Chapel, where the 
cardinals are ceremonially locked in ("conclave" or "with key") 
before each voting session to ensure secrecy and to protect them 
from outside influence.  For the first time in recent history, 
they will no longer reside in the Apostolic Palace adjacent to 
the Sistine Chapel, but will break in more comfortable 
accommodations (the "Domus Sanctae Marthae) that have been 
prepared for them in another part of Vatican City.  The Domus is 
a hotel-like facility normally occupied by a number of the Holy 
See's clergy staff and by official visitors.  While free to move 
about, cardinal electors must stay in Vatican City the entire 
time of the conclave, no one may approach them as they transfer 
between the Sistine Chapel and the residence, and all forms of 
communication with the outside world are banned.  The cardinal 
electors may not read newspapers, listen to the radio or watch 
television.  The cardinals are also forbidden to engage in 
electioneering or deal making.  The Sistine Chapel and other 
areas where the cardinal electors congregate will be swept for 
electronic bugging devices and hidden cameras.  The use by 
cardinals of electronic devices capable of data transmission 
(cellular phones, modems, computers, palm pilots etc.) is 
likewise forbidden. 
 
3. (SBU) Only cardinals under the age of eighty have the right 
to vote for the next pope.  Those eligible are called cardinal 
electors, and, as of the date of this cable, there are 117 
electors; all but three appointed by Pope John Paul II.  The 
Vatican has announced that two of the cardinal electors have 
been excused from participating in this conclave for health 
reasons:  Cardinal Jaime Sin, the retired Archbishop of Manila 
and the retired Archbishop of Monterrey, Mexico, Cardinal Adolfo 
Suarez Rivera.  While current guidelines recommend that there be 
120 electors, there is no firm minimum or maximum number.  The 
geographical demographics of the electors are as follows: 
Europeans make up 50 percent, with 21 percent coming from Latin 
America, 10 percent from Africa, 9 percent from Asia, 9 percent 
from the North America, and 1 percent from Oceania. 
 
4. (U) The first day of the conclave begins with a special 
public Mass in Saint Peter's Basilica to invoke God's blessing 
on the voting process, at which the diplomatic corps will be 
present.  That afternoon at 1630 CET (1030 EDT) the cardinals 
will gather in the Hall of Blessings to spend some time together 
in prayer and reflection.  The cardinals then form a procession 
and, invoking the assistance of the Holy Spirit by chanting an 
ancient Latin hymn -- the Veni Creator Spiritus, they enter the 
Sistine Chapel and take an oath to observe the conclave rules, 
with the emphasis being on secrecy.  They also swear that 
whoever is elected will faithfully carry out the duties of the 
papacy, and "affirm and defend strenuously the spiritual and 
temporal rights and liberty of the Holy See."  Afterwards, all 
unauthorized people are ordered out, the chapel doors are 
sealed, and the cardinals begin the first ballot.  A two-thirds 
majority is necessary for a new pope to be validly elected 
during the initial twelve days of the conclave; thereafter, a 
simple majority suffices.  The conclave lasts until a new pope 
is elected. 
 
5. (U) After the initial afternoon vote, further votes are held 
for three days, with two morning voting sessions and two in the 
afternoon.  If no agreement has been reached at this point, 
there is a one-day break for reflection followed by seven new 
voting sessions.  This pattern can occur three times, or until a 
candidate receives a two-thirds majority.  In his 1996 document 
 
"Universi Dominici Gregis", Pope John Paul II dramatically 
changed the conclave voting rules.  If the three sessions of 
seven consecutive votes do not result in a two-thirds majority, 
the new rule allows a vote by simple majority.  The electors can 
also decide together to choose between the two candidates who, 
in the preceding ballot, received the greatest number of votes. 
 
6. (SBU) Comment:  The possibility of a pope being elected by a 
simple majority poses a number of new issues for the Catholic 
Church.  For example, a pope elected by only 51 percent of the 
cardinal electors would have to cultivate the faction that voted 
for another candidate or candidates.  While it is unlikely that 
the cardinals who voted for another candidate would publicly 
oppose the new pope, the situation would be without precedent in 
the history of the modern papacy and could emerge as a source of 
instability within the Catholic Church should the voting 
information be leaked into the public forum.  Additionally, the 
new procedure could encourage a small majority faction that 
cannot win support of two-thirds of the electors to wait for the 
12th day rule change rather than seek a compromise candidate. 
This could lead to the election of a Pope with more extreme 
views, rather than one who can bridge divisions.  End comment. 
 
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From Black Smoke to White Smoke: The VOTING PROCEDURE 
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7. (U) Upon entering the Sistine Chapel, the cardinals all take 
seats around the wall of the Chapel and take a ballot paper on 
which is written "Eligo in summum pontificem" ("I elect as 
supreme Pontiff...").  They then write a name on it, fold it, 
and then proceed one by one to approach the altar, where a 
specially designed urn stands.  They hold up their ballot high 
to show that they have voted, place it on a metal plate, and 
then slide it into the urn.  The Cardinal Camerlengo, Cardinal 
Eduardo Martinez Somalo, and three cardinal assistants then 
count the votes.  Each assistant reads the name, reads the name 
aloud, writes it down on a tally sheet and then passes it to the 
next assistant.  The third assistant runs a needle and thread 
through the centre of each ballot to join them all together. 
During the conclave, it is traditional that after each 
inconclusive voting session, the ballots are combined with a 
chemical and burned to release a black smoke.  This indicates to 
the public in St. Peter's Square and to the millions of 
television viewers throughout the world watching live broadcasts 
that a new pope has not been elected. 
 
8. (U) When a candidate is eventually elected, the Cardinal 
Dean, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, asks the newly chosen man if he 
accepts the office.  By accepting, the man immediately becomes 
pope if he is already a Catholic bishop.  If he is not a bishop, 
he will be ordained as such immediately by Cardinal Ratzinger 
and becomes pope as soon as this ordination is completed. 
(Note:  According to Church law, any validly baptized Catholic 
male, cleric or layman, is theoretically eligible for election. 
An individual does not have to be present at the conclave to be 
elected.  It is also possible -- although unlikely -- that one 
of the cardinals over 80 years of age could be elected. End 
note).  The newly elected Pope is then asked by what name he 
wishes to be called.  It is traditional for the new pope to 
choose a saint's name or the name used by one of his 264 
predecessors (except for the name of the first pope, Saint 
Peter).  As in previous votes, the ballots are then burned with 
a chemical, but this time, by tradition, it releases white smoke 
indicating a successful vote.  In addition to the white smoke, 
the bells of St Peter's Basilica will be rung to signal the 
election of the new Pope and avoid any doubt about whether the 
smoke is white or black (a problem during the election of John 
Paul II). 
 
9. (U) Following the election, all the cardinals will then 
approach the new pope and each one makes an act of homage and 
obedience.  The Pope vests in his pontifical clothing (white 
cassock and skull cap).  The Italian family business in Rome 
that makes all the papal vestments has different sizes prepared 
in readiness, no matter what the new pope's shape or size. 
Later, standing on the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica, the 
Cardinal Deacon, Cardinal Jorge Medina Estevez, makes the 
announcement:  Annuntio vobis gaudium magnum.  Habemus Papum. 
(I have news of great joy.  We have a Pope.)  He then announces 
the name of the new pope to the people gathered in the square 
below and the pope addresses the crowd and offers his first 
blessing "Urbi et Orbi" -- to the city and the world. 
 
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PROFILE FOR A NEW POPE 
 
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10. (SBU) While it impossible to guess who will be elected the 
next pope, there are some basic qualifications and personal 
qualities that will be crucial, and some rules of thumb that can 
help narrow the field.  The first factor is age.  The electors 
will be looking for someone not too old and not too young, which 
in Vatican terms would make an ideal candidate between 65 and 75 
years of age.  They will not want to hold another papal funeral 
and conclave anytime soon, as happened with John Paul I in 1978. 
 Cardinals aged 80 and above, who presently cannot vote and are 
kept out of the conclave, are not likely to be considered.  That 
reduces the number of viable candidates to 117.  The next pope 
must be in reasonable health.  The two cardinals excused from 
this conclave for health reasons can probably be ruled out as 
candidates for the next papacy, as well as others who are known 
to have serious health concerns.  Candidates below 65 will also 
face an uphill battle.   Following history's third-longest 
pontificate under John Paul II, the cardinal electors might well 
avoid a candidate who could have another long tenure. 
 
11. (U) A second important factor is linguistic ability. 
Although John Paul II broke the centuries-old Italian monopoly 
on the papacy, candidates who are Italian or at least who speak 
Italian may enjoy an early edge.  Whether or not a pope is 
Italian, he is first and foremost the Bishop of Rome and must be 
a credible leader for that flock.  Also, Italian remains the 
working language of the Vatican bureaucracy.  Command of other 
world languages is an obvious plus for the increasingly 
international character of the modern papacy. 
 
12.     (SBU) Geographic and national origins will be a third 
basic factor.  For example, the next pope almost certainly will 
not be a Pole.  Even if there were an outstanding candidate 
among Poland's three cardinals, the conclave would not hand that 
country the papacy twice in a row.  It is possible that John 
Paul II's Slavic roots may even work against other Eastern 
European cardinals.  Likewise, the next pope will likely not be 
an American, as the eleven voting American cardinals would have 
to overcome the disadvantage of coming from the world's 
remaining superpower and concomitant fears of adding religious 
power to our political, economic, and military dominance. 
Memories in the Catholic Church are long, and many recall the 
circumstances of the fourteenth century when French popes were 
suspected of being overly influenced by France's monarchy.  On 
the other hand, given the sizeable number of Latin American 
Catholics, a candidate from South or Central American could 
enjoy an advantage. 
 
13. (SBU) The next pope will also need pastoral experience to 
demonstrate his human and leadership qualities.  While Pope Pius 
XII (1939-63) spent his career as a Vatican diplomat and 
bureaucrat, the four popes since then have had considerable 
experience running a diocese.  If pastoral experience remains an 
important consideration, then a number of Italian cardinals who 
have worked primarily in the Curia may be ruled out.  The 
electors might also look for someone with some element of Roman 
experience.  A successful pope probably needs to have a grasp of 
the Vatican curial subculture.  Although John Paul I and John 
Paul II did not have much experience of the Vatican bureaucracy, 
they both completed post-graduate studies in Rome, had attended 
the Second Vatican Council -- which entailed long months in 
Vatican City State interacting with Holy See officials -- and 
they were regular visitors to curial offices. 
 
14.  (SBU) Given that the next Pope will be the Holy See's face 
to the world and its top diplomat, the next Pope should also 
bring to bear some international experience and a demonstrated 
ability to interact effectively with world leaders to advance 
the Holy See's international views and bring its moral positions 
to bear on the major international issues of our era. 
 
15.  (SBU) A final factor that will inevitably shape the 
election is a candidate's media ability.  While no new Pope is 
expected or would be likely to match John Paul II's media 
facility, the Holy See nevertheless recognizes the importance of 
an effective messenger in today's media-driven world.  While 
some Cardinals believe John Paul II may have been too open with 
the media and may have allowed the media focus to personalize 
the papacy too much, the next Pope must be able to use the tools 
of electronic media to convey the Church's message clearly and 
with power. 
 
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New Pope's Inauguration Mass - Delegations 
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16.     (SBU) The new Pope's election is celebrated by two main 
events.  The first is a solemn but festive "ceremony of 
inauguration" of the new pope's ministry as supreme pastor of 
the Catholic Church at a Mass in Vatican City, usually in St. 
Peter's Square.  This typically takes place 4-7 days after the 
new pope's election, depending in part on the liturgical 
calendar.  For Pope John Paul II this period was 6 days.  Some 
time after the inauguration Mass, the Pope, as the Bishop of 
Rome, takes formal possession of his patriarchal basilica in the 
city: St. John Lateran.  The Vatican would not expect the 
President to attend the Vatican Mass to mark the beginning of 
the new papacy, given the relatively short time between the two 
events.  However, a Presidential delegation would be expected to 
attend.  For the inauguration mass, Post recommends planning for 
a five- to ten-person delegation to be in Rome most likely 
during the week beginning April 25 (if this conclave follows the 
pattern of the last 170 years or so when the longest time for 
choosing a new pope was four days) and led by the 
Vice-President, the Secretary of State, or the First Lady. 
Prior to the ceremony, the Vatican will determine the size of 
official delegations.  As at the papal funeral, dress should be 
sober with men wearing dark business suits and dark ties; and 
women wearing dark suits with skirts at knee or below the knee 
length. 
 
 
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 2005VATICA00463 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED