US embassy cable - 05DARESSALAAM732

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000732 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E 
 
E.O. 12958: 4/13/15 
TAGS: PGOV, TZ 
SUBJECT: CCM Party Counts Down to Nomination Day 
 
 
Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason 
1.4(b) 
 
REF: A) Dar es Salaam 711,  B) Dar es Salaam 538, C) 
Dar es Salaam 217, D)Dar es Salaam 57 
 
1. (C) Summary: Top leaders in the government and 
the ruling CCM party are converging on the capital 
Dodoma for the events that will determine Tanzania?s 
next President.  Following the regular parliamentary 
session of April 12-22, the CCM Party Congress will 
convene to select the party?s nominees for the 
October general elections.  Because of the CCM?s 
overwhelming dominance on the Tanzanian mainland, 
the CCM candidate for Union President and most of 
the CCM candidates for the national parliament are 
sure to prevail.  During the run-up to the 
announcement of the CCM?s nominees on May 4, the 
internal party campaigning will be intense, if 
mostly conducted out of public view.  In the 
interim, we do not expect the Government of Tanzania 
to get much else done.  Unfortunately, while the CCM 
is fully engaged in this intense, intra-party deal- 
making, top party leaders might be reluctant to rein 
in the CCM?s Zanzibar contingent and prevent the 
Zanzibari government from undermining voter 
registration before it concludes April 22.  End 
Summary. 
 
2. (U) There is little doubt in anybody?s mind that 
CCM nominee who will be announced on May 4 will 
become Tanzania?s next President.  Originally 
Tanzania?s only legal political party, the CCM still 
commands formidable party machinery and dominates 
the Tanzanian mainland.  The CCM is also likely to 
retain its overwhelming majority in the National 
Parliament, where it currently holds 256 out of 295 
seats, after the October elections.  A competitive 
electoral contest is expected only on semi- 
autonomous Zanzibar and in a handful of mostly urban 
districts on the mainland. 
 
3. (U) For now, all of the action ? and the top 
government and party officials ? are shifting to the 
isolated capital city Dodoma.  The April 12-22 
session of Parliament is now underway, and will vote 
on legislation on matters ranging from rural 
electrification to the auditing of cooperatives. 
During this election year, however, the main event 
will begin the last week of April, when the top 
organs of the CCM select the party?s nominees for 
electoral office. 
 
4. (U) The party will tackle one of its hardest 
tasks first.  On April 27, a special committee of 
the CCM?s National Executive Committee (NEC) will 
meet on Zanzibar to chose the party?s nominee for 
the Zanzibar President. (Please note:  the CCM?s 
?NEC,? a party organ, is not to be confused with the 
National Electoral Commission, which is the 
government office that organizes and conducts 
national elections.)  Incumbent President Karume is 
running for a second term, but to the surprise and 
consternation of some in the CCM, Dr. Mohammed 
Gharib Bilal has challenged him for the party 
nomination.  Dr. Bilal represents the faction of 
former Zanzibar President Salmin Amour, who lost the 
party nomination to Karume five years ago. Opinions 
are mixed as to whether the Amour/Bilal faction has 
sufficient strength within the CCM to stage a 
comeback, but the deep split within the Zanzibar 
branch of the CCM can only weaken the ruling party 
as it prepares to face the opposition CUF in the 
October elections. 
 
5. (U) The CCM?s NEC will return to Dodoma for a 
planning session on April 29-30.  The Central 
Committee convenes May 2 to scrutinize the CCM?s 
eleven candidates for the Union Presidency, and will 
winnow their numbers down to five.  On May 3, the 
NEC reconvenes to vote on the top three candidates. 
The big event is set for May 4, when the 1,800 
member strong national party Congress, technically 
the CCM party?s highest organ, convenes to vote for 
the nominee.  Since the regular party Congress 
convenes only once every five years, the party?s day 
to day administration, and the real power, resides 
with the 200 members of the CCM?s NEC, and 
especially with those NEC members who are also on 
the Central Committee.  Most of the 36 members of 
the Central Committee also hold the top positions in 
the national government.  Five of the CCM candidates 
for President are themselves Central Committee 
members. 
 
6. (SBU) The real decisions will likely be made 
within the very top echelons of the CCM party:  a 
small, tight circle of individuals who know each 
other very well, and who have been alternately 
forming alliances and betraying each other for 
years.  Information about the decision-making and 
its outcome is under extremely close hold, although 
this doesn?t stop everybody else in the political 
parties, in the press and in the diplomatic 
community from speculating wildly about the identity 
of the nominee who will be announced on May 4. 
 
7. (SBU) Among the CCM?s eleven declared candidates 
for President, Foreign Minister Jakaye Kikwete is 
generally considered the man to beat.  Other front 
runners include the venerable CCM Party Vice 
Chairman John Malecela, representing the party?s Old 
Guard, former OAU Secretary General Salim Salim, and 
possibly the embattled Prime Minister Frederick 
Sumaye, if he can overcome the suspicions that he is 
corrupt.  The remaining seven candidates may hope to 
emerge as a compromise choice (following the pattern 
established in Mkapa?s 1995 nomination).  Some may 
be running to enhance their visibility within the 
party, to gratify their egos, or to position 
themselves for ministerial portfolios in next 
administration.  Occasionally, the rumor mill has 
cited Vice President Mohammed Shein as a hot 
prospect, but Shein has not yet filed his candidacy; 
at this late date, he is probably out of the 
running. (For a complete readout on the candidates 
and their prospects, please see Reftel B.) 
 
8. (C)  For the next few weeks, at least, we expect 
the government to be somewhat distracted.  Foreign 
Ministry officials admitted as much during a recent 
demarche; they reported that Foreign Minister 
Kikwete had turned much of the daily administration 
of foreign affairs over to his deputy. 
 
9. (C) The diplomatic community is increasingly 
concerned that it will be difficult to focus high- 
level government attention on Zanzibar, where the 
CCM government faces a strong electoral challenge 
and where irregularities in voter registration have 
recently turned particularly ugly.  Even if 
Zanzibar?s embattled President Karume succeeds in 
obtaining the CCM party nomination, he stands a good 
chance of losing the presidency to the opposition 
CUF party in the general elections.  Developments in 
recent weeks suggest that that the Isles contingent 
of CCM is running scared, and may not be inclined to 
allow free and fair elections on Zanzibar.  From 
April 2-22, the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) 
is registering voters in the populous Urban West 
Region.  Since April 2, however, evidence has been 
mounting that local government headmen, called 
?shehas,? have received instructions to illegally 
bar CUF supporters from registering. (Please see 
reftel A for a full update.)  Reportedly, the shehas 
are taking their instructions from top officials in 
the Zanzibar Government, such as Chief Minister 
Nahodha, or President Karume himself.  The 
diplomatic community plans to approach leaders in 
both the National and the Zanzibar governments to 
urge them to rein in the shehas and allow the ZEC to 
conduct credible registration. 
 
9. (C) Comment:  In general, major policy decisions 
and initiatives involving the Tanzanian government 
are best put on hold until after the CCM?s 
nomination fever subsides on May 4, and after we 
have a clearer idea about who our long-term 
government interlocutors will be.  The serious 
irregularities in the Zanzibar voter registration 
cannot wait, however.  For better or worse, 
registration on Zanzibar will be completed April 22. 
The voters register, and ultimately the Zanzibar 
elections, will not be fair and credible, unless key 
leaders at the very top levels of the CCM party 
insist that the ZEC be allowed to register voters in 
accordance with legally established procedures.  We 
believe that President Mkapa wants to leave a legacy 
of a peaceful, democratic transition, although he 
may not particularly want to be remembered as the 
politician who ?lost? Zanzibar for the CCM. Mkapa?s 
dilemma may find echoes among other influential 
members of the Central Committee.  We can assume 
that considerable horse-trading is occurring behind 
the scenes in the CCM, as the CCM?s presidential 
hopefuls vie for allies and support.  We can only 
hope that the credibility of the Zanzibari election 
is not one of the items to be traded away in the 
coming days.  End Comment. 
 
STILLMAN