US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN649

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000649 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AM 
SUBJECT:  NO POMEGRANATE REVOLUTION IN SIGHT 
 
1. (U) Sensitive But Unclassified.  Please protect 
accordingly. 
 
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SUMMARY 
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2. (SBU) One year after an opposition rally was 
forcibly broken up Armenia is decidedly not on the 
verge of a "Pomegranate Revolution."  With a 
fractured opposition, lack of a clear opposition 
leader, a steadily improving economy and a 
government with few fault lines we do not anticipate 
a change of power in Armenia before the next 
scheduled elections in 2007 and 2008.  End Summary. 
 
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PRESIDENT COMMENTS ON ARMENIAN STABILITY 
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3. (SBU) Mindful of the anniversary of last April's 
events, President Kocharian (as well as a number of 
other government officials) commented on the 
unlikely prospects for revolution in Armenia. 
Kocharian noted that the conditions are not ripe for 
a revolution in Armenia, "regardless of what its 
color is."  Speaking to students April 11, Kocharian 
told them that the situations in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan 
and Ukraine "have nothing in common with the 
situation in Armenia where no one doubts the 
authorities' resolve, the change of generations has 
already taken place, there have been no 
oppositionists dismissed from their posts and the 
next elections will be held in Armenia in two 
years."  Throwing a sop to opposition leaders, 
Kocharian insisted that there has been no revolution 
"not because of the fact that our opposition is too 
bad, but because the situation in Armenia is better, 
and state authorities are more effective." 
 
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THINK TANK DOWNPLAYS IMMINENT REVOLUTION 
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4. (SBU) In a late February roundtable on the topic 
"Revolutions in Color: ... Who Comes Next?" 
sponsored by the Caucasus Media Institute the 
organizers (largely distinctly unsympathetic to the 
current government) agreed that revolution in 
Armenia was unlikely.  They noted that a successful 
revolution depends on a number of factors that are 
lacking in Armenia:  a significant triggering event 
(such as elections); a fairly unified opposition 
with a charismatic leader; and a weak government. 
With the military and police unwaveringly supportive 
of the current government, participants noted that 
Kocharian's administration was anything but weak. 
 
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OPPOSITION MEMBERS POINT TO PROBLEMS 
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5. (SBU) In public comments earlier this spring, 
long-time opposition leader and one-time 
presidential candidate Vazgen Manukian blamed the 
opposition itself for its lack of traction with 
ordinary Armenians.  Manukian admitted that as long 
as the opposition had no clear leader, any attempt 
at forced regime change was doomed to fail. 
 
6. (SBU) Stepan demirchian, one of the leaders of 
the opposition Justice Bloc and wanna-be opposition 
leader admitted privately to us that unless the 
government slips up and hands its opponents an 
opportunity the opposition would have to wait until 
elections.  Demirchian hoped that if the GOAM 
managed to come to agreement on proposed changes to 
the Constitution or electoral code, the opposition 
could turn the subsequent referendum into a 
plebiscite on President Kocharian's "legitimacy." 
 
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COMMENT:  NOT IN ARMENIA 
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7. (SBU) Despite persistent discussion of a possible 
"Pomegranate Revolution" we simply see little chance 
of forced regime change in Armenia.  With a steadily 
(albeit slowly) improving economy, a fractured and 
fractious opposition and a president firmly in 
control of key governmental elements we expect to 
see the next regime change only with the next 
elections in 2007 and 2008. 
EVANS