US embassy cable - 05QUITO794

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000794 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EC 
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: FACTS ON SUCCESSION AND STATE OF EMERGENCY 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney, Reason 1.4 (b&d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  With political instability a chronic 
problem in Ecuador, and in the face of imminent 
anti-government strike action, we are providing background 
information on constitutional provisions for a presidential 
declaration of a state of emergency and for presidential 
succession.  The GOE appears calm in the face of partial 
protests starting April 13.  We have no information to 
suggest that President Gutierrez is considering declaring an 
emergency or will leave the Presidency.  End Summary. 
 
Presidential Succession Rules 
----------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) The Ecuadorian Constitution (Art. 167-168) states 
that the President will cease his functions under any of the 
following circumstances:  the end of the period for which he 
was elected; death; renunciation accepted by the national 
Congress; physical or mental incapacity (legally proven and 
declared by Congress) that prevents the President from 
carrying out his role; destitution after a political 
impeachment; and by abandonment of his/her post, as declared 
by the national Congress.  Once the President has been 
declared absent, his/her term is to be completed by the Vice 
President.  If neither the President nor Vice President are 
able to finish the term, this role temporarily falls to the 
president of Congress.  The president of Congress must then 
convoke the Congress to elect a new national President within 
ten days. 
 
State of Emergency 
------------------ 
 
3.  (SBU) According to the Constitution (Art. 180-182), the 
President may declare a nationwide or partial state of 
emergency in the case of imminent foreign aggression, 
international war, extreme internal unrest ("grave conmocion 
interna"), or natural disasters.  Once a state of emergency 
has been declared, the President may take all or some of the 
following actions:  call for early collection of taxes and 
other fees; redirect government funds (excluding health and 
educational funds) towards national defense or disaster 
relief efforts; relocate national government headquarters; 
establish a nationwide or local security zone; censor media 
communications; limit the Constitutional rights of freedom of 
expression, freedom of association, home privacy, mail 
correspondence privacy, free transit within Ecuador and 
internationally, and the prohibition against forced testimony 
against relatives or spouses; call up all military reserves 
and deploy police; call for mobilization or demobilization as 
needed; and close or open ports. 
 
4.  (SBU) The President must notify Congress within 48 hours 
of the publication of a state of emergency decree.  The 
Congress has the power to revoke the decree, if it feels 
justified.  The state of emergency decree is valid for a 
maximum of 60 days; however, it can be renewed.  Once the 
causes of the state of emergency have passed, the President 
must decree its end and notify the Congress of this 
immediately. 
 
Both Provisions Tested 
---------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) The current Constitution dates to 1998, and both of 
these provisions were tested when in 1999-2000 President 
Mahuad declared a state of emergency and later left his post 
in face of a coup attempt.  After the withdrawal of military 
support for a brief triumvirate, Mahuad was replaced by 
Congress with his VP, Gustavo Noboa, who served out Mahuad's 
term. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (C) A declaration of a state of emergency would give 
President Gutierrez the power to prevent a national strike by 
calling out the military and suspending rights of expression 
and movement.  However, doing so would be foolish, and would 
clearly heighten the sense of crisis and galvanize 
anti-government opposition.  We have repeatedly counseled 
Gutierrez and his advisors to respect the right of expression 
and dissent, most recently during CJCS General Myers' meeting 
with Gutierrez on April 11 (SepTel).  Gutierrez was quick to 
express commitment to maintaining these freedoms. 
 
7.  (C) The current political crisis over the Supreme Court 
and ex-President Bucaram's return has generated calls by some 
opposition members (including from leaders of the main 
indigenous organization) for Gutierrez to resign and be 
replaced by VP Alfredo Palacios.  Given Ecuador's turbulent 
political situation, we cannot rule out this possibility. 
However, at this time we believe threatened strike action is 
highly unlikely to lead to Gutierrez' resignation. 
KENNEY