US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV2260

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002260 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2015 
TAGS: IS, KWBG, OREP, PGOV, PREL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, U.S.-ISRAEL RELATIONS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT 
SUBJECT: YOSSI BEILIN DESCRIBES USG ROLE TO CODEL LEVIN: 
NOBODY IS AROUND! 
 
Classified By: Charge d'affaires Gene A. Cretz for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Senator Carl Levin and his delegation met 
on March 31 with Yahad Party Chairman Yossi Beilin.  With 
polite frustration, Beilin repeatedly and in detail expressed 
his view that the U.S. is not doing enough to advance a 
resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  Beilin said 
he was optimistic that the GOI's withdrawal from Gaza will 
proceed smoothly, but remained concerned that the USG, the 
GOI, and the PA are not planning for "the morning after."  In 
particular, Beilin said the USG and the GOI must act now to 
show ordinary Palestinians that, after Gaza withdrawal, 
progress toward a resolution of the conflict is possible. 
Otherwise, he predicted, Palestinian frustrations will turn 
into renewed violence.  Beilin spelled out that, after Gaza 
withdrawal, his party will pull back the "safety net" it now 
provides to Sharon's coalition within the Knesset.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
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PROSPECTS FOR PEACE 
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2.  (C)  Senator Levin, accompanied by staffers, four 
constituents, and Embassy notetaker, met with Yahad Party 
Chairman Yossi Beilin at the latter's offices in Tel Aviv 
March 31.  "I am not sure we are moving ahead" on the 
Israeli-Palestinian conflict despite the present appearance 
of progress, Beilin said.  Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas 
must show that the moderate way is bearing fruit, Beilin 
said, but then questioned Abbas's ability and perhaps even 
willingness to deliver quickly enough.  The Palestinian 
President is "the treasure" of the political moment, but only 
sees himself as a transitional leader and would be happy to 
quit, Beilin said, like last time.  Abbas has even kept his 
"same chauffeur, same secretary, same personal assistant" 
rather than set up the machinery of a presidential office. 
Moreover, Beilin added, the "impossible" relationship between 
Abbas and Prime Minister Ahmad Quraya' is preventing Abbas 
from working with the GOI on disengagement. 
 
3.  (C) The bottom line, according to Beilin, is that the GOI 
and the PA alike are typically not doing enough to meet their 
commitments.  Abbas started down the right path on fugitives 
and security forces reform, but has walked back from his 
initial positions.  The GOI has not met the commitments it 
made to Abbas at the Sharm al-Sheik meeting, releasing too 
few prisoners and dismantling too few checkpoints. 
 
4.  (C) A "referee," which Beilin defined as the USG, and 
monitoring are the missing keys, Beilin said, but he 
complained that "the referee" was dormant.  He said his hope 
that the second Bush administration would engage was proving 
empty, and what he called the now-irrelevant dates in the 
roadmap have not been and will not be changed.  President 
Bush declared he wanted a Palestinian state by 2008, Beilin 
noted, but "nobody is around!" 
 
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GAZA WITHDRAWAL 
---------------- 
5.  (C)  "For me," said the Yahad party chairman, "Gaza is 
the beginning, and a precedent for continuing in the West 
Bank.  For Sharon, Gaza is the beginning and the end."  For 
Sharon to agree to a Geneva-like solution would be out of 
character with his actions over the past 38 years.  Abbas 
rejects an interim solution because he believes it will 
destroy Palestinian leverage by making the unresolved 
conflict just another border dispute in world opinion. 
 
6.  (C)  Right now, Beilin said, Gaza withdrawal provides a 
substitute for a political horizon.  After withdrawal, 
Sharon's preference for a partial and interim solution will 
collide with Abbas's desire for a complete and permanent 
resolution.  Without a political horizon, Beilin predicted, 
Palestinian frustrations will boil over into renewed violence. 
 
7.  (C) Beilin said he was more optimistic about the 
withdrawal itself.  The GOI, which managed to absorb 35,000 
Russian immigrants a month, can move 7,000 settlers without a 
civil war, he said.  Palestinian authorities are sending 
mixed signals on the fate of assets such as housing and 
greenhouses, but the GOI now sees the need to preserve them. 
Beilin predicted that the assets will emerge intact. 
 
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COALITION POLITICS 
------------------- 
8.  (C)  Beilin said that after disengagement Yahad will 
withdraw the "safety net" it is holding under Sharon's 
coalition, and Sharon understands this even though Beilin has 
not said so publicly.  Ticking off the current coalition 
line-up, Beilin explained that, without Yahad's six votes, he 
expects the government will fall, thus leading to early 
elections.  He predicted that Likud will split, putting 
Labor, Yahad, the Arab parties and Shinui in a position to 
win enough seats against the ultra-right parties, the 
national religious parties, and the rightist Likud rump to 
form a new government coalition.  Beilin said he doubts that 
even a wildly successful withdrawal would influence Sharon's 
electoral prospects.  Instead, he noted, polls show 43 
percent of Israelis support Beilin's Geneva solution. 
Moreover, Beilin said, unlike Labor, which is operating 
inside Sharon's coalition, Yahad will benefit from the 
independence it is exercising now.  Beilin cited as examples 
of this independence his party's opposition to Israeli 
construction in the E-1 area between Jerusalem and Ma'aleh 
Adumin, and its refusal to endorse Sharon's latest plethora 
of ministerial nominees. 
 
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