US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1753

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001753 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: CHINA WATCHERS' VIEWS ON KMT-CCP MEETING 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 01436 
     B. TAIPEI 01724 
     C. TAIPEI 01572 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Senior China Watchers and former Taiwan 
government officials met with AIT on April 8 to discuss the 
late March KMT-CCP meeting and "Ten-point consensus." 
Despite the range of political views held by the academics -- 
from deep blue to medium green -- the China Watchers agreed 
that since March 2004 the CCP has been carrying out a new 
approach to cross-Strait relations.  They also concurred that 
Taiwan's fragmented domestic politics was hindering progress 
toward a uniform Taiwan cross-Strait policy and that 
collaboration between the DPP and the KMT would remain 
essential but elusive.  The China Watchers could not imagine 
a scenario where either the DPP or the KMT would be willing 
to compromise on what has become a highly partisan issue in 
order to achieve inter-party cooperation on cross-Strait 
issues.  The PRC's new strategy and the bleak outlook for 
inter-party dialogue in Taiwan on cross-Strait policy pose a 
difficult challenge for President Chen and his plans for 
cross-Strait engagement. 
 
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PRC Translating Ideas into Action 
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2. (C)  A group of Taiwan's senior China Watchers told AIT on 
April 8 that Beijing's cross-Strait policy over the past 
month, exemplified by the passage of the Anti-Secession Law 
and the KMT-CCP meeting and "Ten-point consensus," 
represented a new approach.  Professor Lin Chung-pin of 
Tamkang University, a former Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) 
Vice Chair and Deputy Defense Minister, described the change 
as more sophisticated and complex, but not necessarily more 
moderate than the previous policy.  The other academics 
concurred with this assessment, using the analogy of the game 
Weiqi (Go) to illustrate how the PRC had skillfully 
surrounded and increased pressure on Taipei, especially on 
the diplomatic and political fronts.  The academics agreed 
that PRC cross-Strait policy was changing and that Beijing, 
which had previously implemented its policy in the shadows, 
now had brought its intentions and actions into the open. 
 
3.  (C)  The China Watchers agreed that PRC President Hu 
Jintao was a central figure in the new policy formulation and 
implementation, but disagreed on the degree of control he 
exercised.  Professor Lin Chung-pin argued that Beijing's new 
approach represented a victory by Hu over the more hard-line 
factions within the CCP and the PLA.  The PLA, he added, had 
become a minor player in cross-Strait relations, as its own 
internal issues and quest for modernization dominated its 
agenda.  Conversely, National Taiwan University professor 
(and former Mainland Affairs Council Vice Chairman) Chen 
Ming-tong saw bureaucratic politics, rather than Hu's 
leadership, as the driving force behind the Anti-Secession 
Law. 
 
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The KMT-CCP Agreement: Driving a Wedge into Taipei Politics 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
4.  (C)  The academics concurred that the KMT visit to the 
PRC and the "Ten-point consensus" had exacerbated problems 
between the DPP and KMT. The PRC, they concluded, had 
effectively driven a wedge between the parties.  They also 
agreed that Taiwan political parties should refrain from 
driving the wedge in further.  The DPP threat to pursue 
formal legal action against KMT delegation leader P.K. Chiang 
was one action, they asserted, that could worsen inter-party 
relations.  Professor Alex Huang, Senior Vice President of 
the Foundation on International and Cross-Strait Studies and 
former MAC Vice Chair, told AIT that the DPP conflict with 
the KMT over the visit was "political, not legal" and that it 
was important to resolve political differences without 
involving lawsuits.  Even without legal action, the proposed 
visit to the PRC by KMT Chairman Lien Chan also could drive 
the wedge deeper.  Professor Chen Ming-tong said that if 
Chairman Lien goes to the PRC and formally signs the March 30 
"Ten-point consensus," along with a framework for peaceful 
engagement and a confidence building measure (CBM) agreement, 
this could worsen the political situation in Taiwan.  Chen 
repeated a concern raised by other DPP officials to AIT, that 
a KMT presidential victory in 2008 would further complicate 
the situation because, from their viewpoint, it would 
undermine Taiwan's security as the CCP and KMT moved to 
implement the agreement. 
 
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Creating Challenges for President Chen 
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5.  (C)  The China Watchers told AIT that the current PRC 
cross-Strait policy and the widening chasm between DPP and 
KMT poses difficult challenges for President Chen and his 
plans for cross-Strait engagement.  There was a consensus 
among the academics that President Chen needs inter-party 
cooperation on cross-Strait issues, but disagreement about 
how to accomplish this.  Professor Lin Bih-jaw, a 
Blue-leaning specialist on diplomacy, argued that the most 
important thing for Taiwan politics is to "form a true 
coalition", with which his colleagues agreed.  The question 
remained, however, how such a coalition might be formed -- to 
which none of the academics had an answer.  When AIT pressed 
the issue, remarking that politics is painful and that 
sometimes compromise is necessary to achieve the greater 
good, the China Watchers indicated that compromise is 
unlikely and that it would be difficult for the two political 
parties to set aside partisan differences for the greater 
good in the current heated political situation. 
 
6.  (C)  The academics were also pessimistic on prospects 
that the two voices of moderation, Premier Frank Hsieh and 
KMT Vice Chairman P.K. Chiang, could facilitate inter-party 
dialogue.  Professor Chen Ming-tong told AIT that, despite 
the media photographs of Hsieh and Chiang shaking hands, 
there is "no prospect" for such cross-partisan cooperation, 
nor for a meeting between President Chen and KMT Chairman 
Lien Chan.  The PRC's wedge policy and the deep differences 
and suspicions among Taiwan's political parties, the China 
Watchers agreed, have left Chen with limited means for fixing 
the domestic political situation and for building a viable 
and sustainable cross-Strait policy. 
 
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Comment: A Light But No Tunnel 
------------------------------ 
 
7.  (C)  Chen's original hope that the March 26 rally would 
bring closure to the Anti-Secession Law has been set back, at 
least among politically active circles, by the CCP-KMT 
meeting and "Ten-point consensus," although the public mood 
appears to remain disinterested.  Senior government officials 
told AIT that Chen would probably wait until after the May 14 
National Assembly elections and the proposed Lien Chan visit 
to the PRC before initiating his plans for economic 
liberalization.  (See Reftels).  On April 11, President Chen 
repeated his April 9 offer to endorse Lien's visit if the KMT 
Chairman would first consult with Chen, softening somewhat 
the tone of his previous statement.  Lien, however, has 
continued to reject this gesture as "insincere."  While 
President Chen apparently still wants to move forward with 
his original agenda, his ability to implement this plan has 
been complicated greatly, if not derailed, by the PRC and the 
KMT. 
PAAL