US embassy cable - 02HARARE1307

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001307 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR AF SENIOR DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER 
LONDON FOR CGURNEY 
PARIS FOR CNEARY 
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ASEC, ZI 
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI DISCUSSES ZIMBABWE'S CHALLENGES WITH 
STAFFDEL 
 
REF: A) HARARE 1219 B) HARARE 1151 
 
Classified By: political section chief Matt Harrington. 
Reasons: 1.5 (B) and (D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C) MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai told a visiting staffdel 
that the MDC was pursuing its legal challenge of the election 
result, had embarked on a campaign to sensitize African 
governments to the situation in Zimbabwe, and welcomed 
dialogue with ZANU-PF, so long as the ruling party did not 
insist on preconditions.  He gave the impression that 
organized mass action remained likely but was not imminent. 
The MDC leader advocated the formation of a bipartisan 
national committee, perhaps based in Parliament, to ensure 
fair distribution of food assistance.  His delegation 
cautioned the West to handle the NEPAD/Zimbabwe linkage very 
carefully --  some in the region believe Mbeki's advocacy of 
this initiative is a sign that he has sold out to the West. 
Excluding Zimbabwe from NEPAD, therefore, could ironically 
strengthen Mugabe's hand with key players on the continent. 
End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) HIRC staff members Malik Chaka and Pearl Alice Marsh, 
accompanied by the Ambassador and political section chief, 
met on May 29 with Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) 
leader Morgan Tsvangirai.  Tsvangirai was joined by MDC 
Members of Parliament Priscilla Misihairabwi and Trudy 
Stevenson, and special advisor Gandi Mudzingwa. 
 
MDC's Next steps 
---------------- 
 
3.  (C) Tsvangirai noted that the staffdel was visiting 
Zimbabwe at a time of deepening political, social, and 
economic crisis.  The current regime's lack of political 
legitimacy was exacerbating the country's other difficulties, 
including  food shortages, a worsening economy, and a 
collapsing health sector.  The MDC, he continued, has decided 
to proceed along several fronts.  First, the party had filed 
a legal challenge of the election results, although it 
recognized that the judiciary has been subverted.  Second, it 
had embarked on an active diplomatic campaign to sensitize 
African governments to the deteriorating situation in 
Zimbabwe.  Third, the party had welcomed the initiative by 
Presidents Mbeki and Obasanjo to bring the MDC and ZANU-PF 
together in a formal dialogue.  Tsvangirai expressed his view 
that dialogue is the best option for finding a constructive 
way forward, but said the ruling party was now trying to 
impose all sorts of preconditions for resumption of the 
talks, long after the agenda had been agreed on.  Without 
elaborating, he noted that Nigerian Foreign Minister Lamido 
was in town trying to reconvene this process (Note: 
Tsvangirai's advisor Gandi Mudzingwa later told us that 
 
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Lamido had advised the MDC he was working to convince Mugabe 
to rejoin the talks.  End Note.) 
 
4.  (C) The MDC leader said there has been significant 
pressure on the party leadership to craft a firm response to 
the stolen election, as Zimbabweans are angry and do not 
accept the status quo.  The party has had to work very hard 
to restrain the public reaction, as the GOZ response to 
demonstrations would certainly be brutal and bloody. 
Tsvangirai mentioned three crises that need to be addressed 
 
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urgently.  First, the food shortage could lead to a 
"catastrophic situation," and a bipartisan national committee 
ought to be established to devise an effective solution.  In 
addition, the rapid shutting down of companies was causing a 
commensurate -- and alarming -- rise in unemployment and 
poverty rates, and an effective policy must be implemented on 
the AIDS pandemic, a national disaster that goverment had not 
demonstrated the political will to address. 
 
MDC's Africa diplomacy 
---------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Noting the MDC's attempts to build African support, 
Marsh asked whether the West had misplayed its hand by too 
strongly criticizing Mugabe and his policies in advance of 
the election.  Not at all, Tsvangirai replied.  Africa, he 
said, must live up to international human rights norms, and 
cannot continue to insist that it be judged by lower 
standards if it expects the world's respect.  Asked the MDC's 
objectives in lobbying African nations, Tsvangirai said the 
party's approach was to recognize the injustices of the 
colonial past and the contributions made by the liberation 
generation.  At the same time, it is pointing out that, 
instead of contributing to Zimbabwe's prosperity, this 
country's liberation generation is employing organized 
violence to suppress the population.  Africa, he said, is at 
a stage where it must deal with both sides of the political 
divide, and that is how tolerance and democratic values are 
nurtured.  The MDC wants an election rerun "at some point," 
but wants to secure agreement on a transitional mechanism in 
the meantime. 
 
Transitional mechanism 
---------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Chaka inquired what a transitional mechanism would 
look like, and wondered how the MDC would maintain its 
independence while participating in such an arrangement.  The 
MDC, Tsvangirai replied, would not follow (former ZAPU 
leader) Joshua Nkomo's example and allow itself to be 
co-opted.  The transitional mechanism (which might include a 
50-50 sharing of Cabinet posts) should be tasked with laying 
the groundwork for a new election, and should oversee 
implementation of confidence-building measures such as 
disbanding of the militias and de-politicization of the 
police. 
 
Internal ZANU-PF dynamics 
------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) Chaka expressed surprise that no one in ZANU-PF had 
been willing to confront Mugabe about the damaging 
consequences of his policies.  There are two primary groups 
in the ruling party, Tsvangirai replied, the hardliners and 
the reformers, and Mugabe believes he can control the destiny 
of Zimbabwe using the hardliners, the most prominent of whom 
is Speaker of Parliament and heir apparent Emmerson 
Mnangagwa.  There are many in the ruling party who are 
unhappy with the direction of the country, but they feel 
vulnerable because Mugabe has, over the years, evolved from a 
quasi-democrat to benign dictator to brutal dictator. 
 
Food crisis 
----------- 
 
8.  (C)  Marsh asked what kind of national body Tsvangirai 
envisioned for dealing with the looming food shortages.  War 
veterans nationwide, he replied, are taking over food 
distribution efforts and are denying MDC supporters access. 
A bipartisan committee, perhaps based in Parliament, would 
ensure that food is distributed to all who need it, 
regardless of political affiliation.  The Ambassador noted 
that he had urged the United Nations to establish an 
independent mechanism to monitor food deliveries, and that we 
and other donors would likely support such a body.  He 
informed Tsvangirai that the USG would be announcing that it 
had been forced to divert to Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique 
10,000 metric tons of yellow maize intended for Zimbabwe 
because the GOZ had refused to grant an exemption to its own 
restrictions on grain with Genetically Modified Organisms 
(GMO). 
 
Mass action 
----------- 
 
9.  (C) Chaka said he had read recent press reports quoting 
Tsvangirai's vows to organize mass action.  What precisely 
 
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does the MDC leader mean by mass action, and are there large 
numbers of Zimbabweans prepared to participate in it, 
particularly in light of the failed stayaway shortly after 
the election?  That stayaway had failed, Tsvangirai said, 
because it was organized by the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade 
Unions as a protest of labor conditions, not a demonstration 
of unhappiness with the country's broader political crisis. 
There is no question of numbers or capacity to organize, as 
mass action will happen.  People's anger is deep, and they 
are not prepared to countenance another six years of rule by 
President Mugabe.  The MDC, however, has not yet decided what 
form it will take. 
 
NEPAD and the West's approach 
----------------------------- 
 
10.  (C)  Marsh asked what the West could do to help 
extricate Zimbabwe from its current plight.  The West's 
approach has been constructive, Tsvangirai said, as the 
efforts to isolate the GOZ leadership are having an effect, 
if not on Mugabe at least on those around him.  He urged the 
international community to continue to pressure and isolate 
the Zimbabwean president, and to try to find a dignified exit 
for him.  MP Trudy Stevenson added that it would be useful if 
the G-8 makes it clear at the upcoming summit that the 
continent's approach to Zimbabwe will affect the success of 
NEPAD.  Yes, Tsvangirai agreed, there is no way that Zimbabwe 
can be walled off from the benefits of NEPAD, as if it's an 
island.  If they are to have any credibility, African 
governments must be able to demonstrate that they can police 
themselves effectively.  MP Priscilla Misihairabwi warned 
that the West must be very careful in how it handles the 
NEPAD/Zimbabwe linkage.  Some in the region, she said, are 
deeply suspicious of NEPAD and believe the initiative 
indicates Mbeki has sold out to the West, so excluding 
Zimbabwe could very well strengthen Mugabe's hand in his 
attempts to portray himself as the preeminent defender of the 
continent's interests.  The Ambassador pointed out that, 
although he expected positive statements to be made about 
NEPAD at the G-8 meeting, no checks would be written, and 
there will be plenty of opportunities to shape NEPAD down the 
road. 
 
Continuing Harassment 
--------------------- 
 
11. (C) The Ambassador asked Tsvangirai to comment on press 
reports that police had raided his rural home the night of 
May 26.  According to the MDC leader, a group of heavily 
armed police had entered his home without a warrant in 
Buhera, Manicaland province, saying they were searching for 
arms of war.  They beat up one of the home's caretakers and 
proceeded to arrest 13 MDC supporters in the vicinity, even 
though they had not committed any apparent crime.  Tsvangirai 
expressed relief that his mother, who lives in the house, had 
been elsewhere at the time. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
12.  (C) Tsvangirai was upbeat but did not present a 
particularly focused picture of his party's plans in the 
near-term.  In fact, he concentrated more on describing the 
range of challenges facing Zimbabwe than on proposing 
achievable cures.  Such vagueness likely derives from the 
reality that there is not agreement among senior members of 
the party about the way forward.  Tsvangirai's failure in his 
introductory remarks to mention mass action likely indicates 
that such a step has been put on the back burner for now. 
SULLIVAN