US embassy cable - 05HARARE562

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000562 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF FOR DAS T. WOODS 
AF/S FOR B. NEULING 
OVP FOR NULAND 
NSC FOR DNSA ABRAMS, SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, PINR, ZI, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: A KINDER, GENTLER ZANU-PF? NOT LIKELY 
 
REF: A. HARARE 83 AND PREVIOUS 
 
     B. 04 HARARE 2035 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY:  Speculation that an overwhelming ZANU-PF win 
in the Parliamentary elections, coupled with the recent party 
purges (ref A), would lead ZANU-PF to moderate its stance 
toward the opposition so far appears unfounded.  Mugabe's 
public portrayal of the MDC has returned to a more vitriolic 
tone and the government-controlled press has stepped up 
articles highlighting purported MDC violence and Morgan 
Tsvangirai's ineffectiveness.  Mugabe has stated publicly 
 
SIPDIS 
that repressive legislation will remain in place.  The GOZ 
appears to be moving to take over or close down the Zimbabwe 
Congress of Trade Unions, which has been critical of the 
government.  Violence against MDC supporters appears to be on 
the upswing, and a GOZ-appointed committee of auditors just 
released a report recommending that the MDC-led city council 
of Mutare be dissolved.  END SUMMARY. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Rhetoric Heating Up Against Opposition 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2. (U) In contrast with the immediate pre-election period, 
when Mugabe moderated his rhetoric, he is reverting to 
portraying the MDC as a party of violence.  At a press 
conference on April 2, Mugabe stated that the MDC must accept 
defeat in the parliamentary elections.  Although in his 
post-election press conference he complimented the MDC for 
refraining from violence on the day of the election, saying 
that MDC,s peaceful conduct should form the &basis8 for 
future interactions between the two parties, Mugabe 
nonetheless reacted intemperately to a question on how the 
GOZ would respond to MDC plans to put pressure on the 
Government for a reversal of the elections.  Mugabe said 
&mass action is not the prerogative of one side,8 and would 
be met with a massive response.  He said &peaceful 
demonstrations are welcome8 but &history has shown us that 
they (MDC) are a very violent people.8 
 
3. (U) Emphasizing Mugabe,s remarks about MDC,s violence, 
the government-controlled Herald newspaper has run several 
articles about MDC supporters allegedly going on a &violent 
rampage8 on April 4 following an &illegal demonstration8 
in Harare during which MDC supporters were reportedly handing 
out &Reject Fraud8 flyers.  The Public Affairs Section, 
located in the area where the demonstrations were held, 
reports that they were peaceful demonstrations.  The latest 
Herald article, on April 7, accused the MDC of using the 
flyers to create a panic over fuel and food shortages that 
did not exist.  (COMMENT:  the shortages do exist.)  On April 
6, the Herald ran a front-page headline &Tsvangirai Must Go: 
UK,8 quoting an article in the UK Independent newspaper 
stating that Tsvangirai had proved himself an ineffectual 
leader.  (The article in the Independent actually stated only 
that Tsvangirai &is expected to face calls to step down.8) 
The Herald has subsequently run cartoons depicting Tony Blair 
telling Tsvangirai &Your time,s up!  Get out!!8 
 
------------------------------- 
Repressive Legislation Remains in Place 
------------------------------- 
 
4. (U) In an interview with the South African Broadcasting 
Corporation, Mugabe said that the much criticized Access to 
Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA) would not 
be repealed.  To date, the GOZ has closed four newspapers and 
arrested several journalists under AIPPA.  Two British 
journalists are currently facing charges under AIPPA for 
practicing journalism without accreditation after being 
arrested while one was taking a photograph near a polling 
station during the March 31 elections.  The journalists face 
two years in prison if convicted. 
 
-------------------------- 
Police Actions Against MDC 
-------------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) Reportedly sought for arrest in connection with 
demonstrations by MDC youth in downtown Harare earlier in the 
week, MDC Youth Chairman Nelson Chamisa turned himself in to 
police on April 7.  He has been charged with inciting public 
violence.  He was released on bail on April 9.  The official 
media has reported the arrests of 18 MDC supporters in 
connection with the demonstrations. 
 
------------------------- 
Siege of Cities Continues 
------------------------- 
 
6. (U) Continuing a pattern of harassment against MDC-led 
mayors and city councils (ref B), the Herald reported on 
April 6 the release of a report by a committee of auditors 
appointed by the GOZ to investigate allegations of 
mismanagement and corruption by the MDC-dominated Mutare city 
council.  According to the Herald, the committee recommended 
suspension of the full council and further investigation into 
the allegations. 
 
-------------------- 
Unions Under Attack? 
-------------------- 
 
 
7. (C) Four unions that form part of the Zimbabwe Congress of 
Trade Unions (ZCTU) on April 6 called for a change of 
leadership based on allegations of financial misappropriation 
and objections to ZCTU President Lovemore Matombo and 1st 
Vice President Lucia Matibenga not holding active jobs. 
Raymond Majongwe, Chairperson of Progressive Teachers Union 
of Zimbabwe and a member of the ZCTU General Council, told us 
April 8 that he believes that the complaints are driven by 
ZANU-PF aligned members of the four unions and that this is a 
government plot to cripple the organization.  By law, the 
Labor Minister can investigate claims of financial 
impropriety.  The AFL-CIO,s Solidarity Center representative 
told us he believes that the government will use the internal 
conflict as a pretext to force ZCTU to hold new elections and 
potentially bar particular individuals from holding office. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Violence Reportedly on the Upswing 
---------------------------------- 
 
 
8. (C) In contrast with the period of relatively less 
violence before the elections, there are a growing number of 
reports in the independent media and by the MDC of violence 
by ZANU-PF supporters against MDC supporters.  Most commonly 
the reports are of actions against relatively isolated 
supporters in rural areas where ZANU-PF is in the majority. 
(Morgan Tsvangirai told us last week that ZANU-PF is still 
afraid to use force in areas where it knows it is in a 
minority.)  Zim Online reported on April 7 that 45 MDC 
supporters in Gwanda were beaten and told they would no 
longer be allowed to buy grain from the Grain Marketing 
Board.  The MDC reported that, in one incident in Insiza 
April 3, a police officer arrested supporters of the ZANU-PF 
candidate for attacking MDC supporters; however, when they 
arrived at the police station, the member in charge released 
them.  On April 10, the Zimbabwe Standard reported that 
ZANU-PF supporters burned down the house of the MDC campaign 
manager for Lupane.  The MDC has reported several other 
attacks and of property being burned.  Human Rights NGOs told 
us that they are still trying to confirm and to quantify the 
reported escalation in violence.  The British Embassy told us 
that one of their election-related contacts from a rural area 
was forced to flee to Harare and is in hiding after being 
accused of being a British &spy8 for talking to the Embassy. 
 
9.  (C) COMMENT: ZANU-PF's tough posture in the wake of its 
landslide "victory" reflects the party leadership's 
confidence in regional acquiescence to the electoral results, 
its insecurity toward its domestic public, and its 
traditional methods, as well as Mugabe,s oft-declared 
disdain for and determination to eliminate all forms of 
democratic dissent.  We expect the ruling party to press 
ahead quickly with constitutional amendments but to avoid any 
political or economic reforms that might signal a kinder, 
gentler face to its domestic critics, even if it tries to 
sell a softer image to the international community in an 
effort to secure desperately needed economic support. 
Dell