US embassy cable - 02ROME2628

UNCLAS ROME 002628 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, IT, EUN 
SUBJECT: ITALYS LOCAL ELECTION SNOOZE 
 
REF:  FLORENCE 35 
 
1.  CONSULATES NAPLES, MILAN, AND FLORENCE CONTRIBUTED TO 
THIS CABLE. 
 
2.  SUMMARY:  ITALYS LOCAL ELECTIONS WERE OVERSHADOWED BY 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        ROME  02628  310712Z 
ATTENTION TO THE NATO-RUSSIA SUMMIT IN ROME.  ELECTIONS 
WENT SMOOTHLY, WITH INCUMBENTS OR INCUMBENT GOVERNING 
COALITIONS LARGELY RETURNED TO OFFICE.  THERE ARE NO 
NATIONAL-LEVEL GENERALIZATIONS TO BE MADE FROM THE 
AGGREGATE OF HUNDREDS OF ELECTIONS DOMINATED BY LOCAL 
ISSUES.  END SUMMARY. 
 
3.  ITALIANS VOTED MAY 26-27 IN LOCAL ELECTIONS TO CHOOSE 
TEN PROVINCIAL PRESIDENTS AND COUNCILS, 794 MAYORS, AND 749 
CITY COUNCILS.  (NOTE:  ITALY IS DIVIDED INTO TWENTY 
REGIONS, AKIN TO U.S. STATES, WHICH ARE FURTHER DIVIDED 
D 
INTO 100 PROVINCES, SIMILAR TO COUNTIES.)  VOTER TURNOUT, 
AT 75.8%, WAS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE 76.4% TURNOUT AT 
PREVIOUS LOCAL ELECTIONS.  VOTING WAS EXPANDED IN FEBRUARY 
TO OCCUR OVER TWO DAYS, IN A MOVE THE GOVERNMENT INTENDED 
TO STREAMLINE VOTING PROCEDURES AND INCREASE VOTER 
PARTICIPATION.  (LAST MAY'S NATIONAL ELECTIONS WERE MARRED 
BY PROTESTS IN MANY CITIES AS POLLING STATIONS BECAME 
OVERCROWDED AND WERE HELD OPEN HOURS BEYOND THE OFFICIAL 
CLOSING TIME.  ADDITIONALLY, ABSTENTION HAS GROWN IN ITALY, 
IN PART DUE TO APATHY, BUT ALSO BECAUSE MANY ITALIANS GO 
AWAY FOR THE WEEK-END AND ONLY RETURN HOME LATE SUNDAY 
NIGHT.) 
 
4.  THE ELECTIONS ATTRACTED LITTLE NATIONAL OR PARTY 
ATTENTION, WITH NONE OF ITALYS MAJOR CITIES OR MORE 
SIGNIFICANT PROVINCES INVOLVED.  LOCAL ISSUES PREVAILED, 
WITH LITTLE RESORT TO NATIONAL THEMES SUCH AS CONFLICT OF 
INTEREST OR JUDICIAL REFORM, AND CANDIDATES PERSONALITIES 
OFTEN HELD GREATER SWAY THAN THE ISSUES.  WHILE IN SOME 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        ROME  02628  310712Z 
E 
CASES LOCAL RACES WERE HOTLY CONTESTED, THESE DID NOT SPARK 
NATIONAL-LEVEL INTEREST.  PERHAPS AS EXPECTED, THEREFORE, 
THE ELECTIONS BROUGHT LITTLE CHANGE:  IN MOST CITIES AND 
REGIONS, INCUMBENTS OR COALITIONS REFLECTING EXISTING 
GOVERNING COALITIONS WERE RETURNED TO OFFICE.  A FEW 
DISTRICTS WILL HOLD RUN-OFF ELECTIONS ON JUNE 9, WHERE NO 
CANDIDATE GARNERED MORE THAN 50 PERCENT OF THE VOTE. 
REGGIO CALABRIA, ON THE TOE OF ITALYS BOOT, SAW THE ONLY 
TURNOVER IN THE FIRST ROUND.  BOTH THE INCUMBENT CENTER- 
LEFT PROVINCIAL PRESIDENT AND MAYOR WERE DEFEATED BY THEIR 
CENTER-RIGHT OPPONENTS. 
 
5.  COMMENT:  ELECTION RESULTS WERE LARGELY PREDICTABLE ON 
THE BASIS OF PAST VOTING.  EVEN THE REGGIO CALABRIA UPSET 
IS NOT OVERLY SIGNIFICANT; THE CALABRIA REGION VOTED 
CENTER-RIGHT IN LAST YEARS GENERAL ELECTION, AND IT WAS 
NOT SURPRISING THAT ONE OF ITS PROVINCES WOULD FOLLOW SUIT. 
AS ELABORATED REFTEL, THERE WERE REGIONAL NUANCES.  IN 
NORTHERN ITALY, ALSO, FORZA ITALIA'S PERFORMANCE WAS NOT AS 
AS 
STRONG AS SOME OBSERVERS EXPECTED FOR REASONS ATTRIBUTED 
VARIOUSLY TO SILVIO BERLUSCONIS DECISION NOT TO CAMPAIGN 
PERSONALLY, THE "WEAKNESS" OF THE CANDIDATES, OR THE 
FRUSTRATION ON THE PART OF ECONOMIC SECTORS WHICH SUPPORTED 
THE CENTER-RIGHT IN LAST YEAR'S ELECTIONS.  NONETHELESS, 
EVEN FEW PARTY REPRESENTATIVES HAVE TRIED TO IMPUTE 
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE INDIVIDUAL GAINS AND LOSSES; THE WHOLE 
EVENT WAS OVERSHADOWED BY THE NATO-RUSSIA SUMMIT.  SOME 
OBSERVERS HAVE CREDITED THE CENTER-RIGHT WITH HAVING HAD 
MORE TO LOSE FROM THE ELECTION AND THUS WITH A MORE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        ROME  02628  310712Z 
FAVORABLE OUTCOME.  OTHERS SUGGESTED THAT THE LEFT 
REHABILITATED ITS IMAGE DAMAGED IN THE NATIONAL ELECTIONS. 
EITHER INTERPRETATION IS A STRETCH.  TO PARAPHRASE MARK 
TWAIN, ANYONE ATTEMPTING TO FIND A MORAL IN THIS STORY 
WILL BE HUNG. 
POPE 
OPE 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
> 
 2002ROME02628 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED