US embassy cable - 05AMMAN2918

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 002918 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR PRM, NEA AND EB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREF, PREL, KPAL, KWBG, IS, JO, UNRWA 
SUBJECT: UNRWA SEEKS DIRECT ROLE IN DISENGAGEMENT PLANNING 
 
REF: AMMAN 2800 
 
This message was prepared by regional refcoord and cleared by 
Embassy Tel Aviv and Consulate General Jerusalem. 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Karen Abu Zayd, Acting Commissioner General 
of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine 
Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), called on Ambassador 
Kurtzer and Consul General David Pearce in separate April 5 
meetings to review the modifications UNRWA is making to both 
its emergency and mid-term development programs to respond to 
Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and parts of the northern West 
Bank.  Although UNRWA is satisfied with the coordination it 
is receiving from the PA point man on disengagement, Minister 
of Civil Affairs Muhammad Dahlan, and from PA Planning 
Minister Ghassan Al-Khatib, Abu Zayd said the agency is 
pressing to join other international players, including 
UNSCO, in the Task Force on Project Implementation (TFPI) to 
ensure that UNRWA can pre-position emergency food aid ahead 
of July.  She also indicated that UNRWA hopes to join the 
next AHLC and World Bank Consultative Group meetings to 
secure funding for its mid-term plan to develop the eight 
refugee camps it operates in Gaza, and to expand its 
vocational training programs, arguing that the PA remains 
firm in its position that UNRWA should address the 
development needs of refugees.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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DAHLAN REAFFIRMS UNRWA'S MANDATE 
-------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Acting UNRWA Commissioner (ComGen) General Karen Abu 
Zayd, accompanied by the agency's External Affairs director, 
Andrew Whitley, made separate April 5 calls on Ambassador 
Kurtzer and Consul General David Pearce to discuss how UNRWA 
is modifying its emergency and development plans in light of 
Israel's withdrawal from Gaza and parts of the northern West 
Bank.  Abu Zayd explained that she had met with PA Minister 
of Civil Affairs Muhammad Dahlan twice since he was appointed 
earlier this month to lead PA disengagement planning, and 
that he had re-affirmed in those meetings the PA's firm 
position that UNRWA's mandate to provide services to 
Palestinian refugees (i.e., education, health, welfare and 
business loans) should remain in effect until a two-state 
solution is achieved.  Abu Zayd added that Dahlan wants to 
issue a joint PA-UNRWA statement clarifying that the current 
division of UNRWA and PA responsibilities for the refugee and 
non-refugee populations will continue after disengagement. 
 
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UNRWA SEEKS TFPI SEAT TO MAINTAIN EMERGENCY AID 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
3. (SBU) In addition to its interaction with the PA, Abu Zayd 
said UNRWA is using World Bank projections to shape its 
short-term response.  She noted that the World Bank's "best 
case" post-disengagement economic recovery scenarios suggest 
that poverty would only be reduced by a couple of percentage 
points in 2005 and that strong demand exists for UNRWA's 
relatively low-paid, short-term job creation programs. 
Accordingly, Abu Zayd said UNRWA is planning to maintain its 
emergency aid program through 2005, while modifying its 
temporary job creation program in Gaza to target unemployed 
youth (aged 16-18), rather than heads of households.  Abu 
Zayd said that UNRWA might also consider phasing out 
emergency food aid post-disengagement.  In the near term, 
however, she said securing access to pre-positioned emergency 
food stocks remains the agency's primary concern. 
 
4. (SBU) Abu Zayd said she was concerned about the 
"inconsistent messages" various UN, PA and Israeli sources 
are offering on the timing of disengagement, and on the 
severity of the closures the GOI will enforce to facilitate 
the departure of settlers and the IDF.  Given that consistent 
access for its humanitarian goods and personnel is critical 
to sustain UNRWA's emergency aid programs, she explained that 
UNRWA is renewing its long-standing effort to secure a seat 
in the TFPI.  (NOTE: The UN Special Coordinator (UNSCO) is a 
member of the TFPI and represents the UN family of agencies. 
END NOTE.)  As an example of the impact closures can have, 
Abu Zayd said that movement of several hundred shipping 
containers of humanitarian aid from Ashdod Port into Gaza had 
been slowed in the last two weeks by the unanticipated 
cessation of a temporary agreement to use the Sufa border 
crossing vice the Karni cargo terminal after the latter had 
been heavily damaged in a terrorist attack in January.  Abu 
Zayd added that UNRWA,s West Bank staff continues to be 
denied access to refugees in seam zone areas on a frequent 
basis. 
 
5. (SBU) Ambassador Kurtzer cautioned Abu Zayd to prepare for 
a two-stage withdrawal -- settlers first, to be followed by 
the IDF )- based on current GOI thinking.  Given the sheer 
number of trucks required to carry out the evacuation of the 
settlers and their belongings, the Ambassador warned, 
significant closures of either corridors or possibly the 
entire Gaza Strip are likely, based on past IDF practice.  He 
added that Israel has a clear timetable for disengagement 
that calls for all settlers to be out of Gaza ahead of the 
start of the 2005-2006 school year in September. 
 
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UNRWA STARTS JOINT MID-TERM PLANNING WITH PA 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) On UNRWA's post-disengagement planning, Abu Zayd 
said that Whitley and UNRWA Chief of Operations/Gaza Field 
Director Lionel Brisson had met PA Planning Minister Ghassan 
Al-Khatib earlier this month to discuss the implications of 
the PA position that refugees remain the responsibility of 
UNRWA, as stated in the PA's Medium Term Development Plan 
(MTDP).  Abu Zayd said Khatib had agreed to hold a joint 
UNRWA-PA planning session in early May to harmonize the MTDP 
with UNRWA's five-year mid-term plan,  which is focused on 
ensuring that UNRWA hands over "assets, not liabilities" to 
the PA.  Although the two plans were developed independently, 
Abu Zayd thought they could be harmonized quickly, given that 
the MTDP and UNRWA's MTP had adopted virtually the same 
thematic approach.  UNRWA intends to provide a detailed brief 
on the status of joint UNRWA-PA planning to donors at its May 
18-19 Major Donors Meeting (MDM) in Amman. 
 
7. (SBU) Apart from that review, Abu Zayd said, UNRWA is in 
the process of refining its MTP for Gaza, but remains 
convinced that its focus on expanding vocational education 
programs to support youth job creation, alleviating 
over-crowding, and removing open sewers in its eight Gaza 
camps is fundamentally correct.  UNRWA is now determining how 
to upgrade its existing vocational training programs to 
target the job market, as it has done recently in Syria.  On 
camp development, Abu Zayd explained that there has been 
considerable debate within UNRWA over the extent to which the 
agency should replace the 3,000 refugee homes destroyed 
during the Intifada.  (NOTE: UNRWA has built 1,000 homes in 
Rafah and Jenin to date, and has received $35 million from 
Saudia Arabia and Japan to start work on an additional 1,000 
homes in Gaza.  END NOTE.) 
 
8. (SBU) Abu Zayd said she is convinced that upgrading 
refugee living conditions will be critical to counter anxiety 
that she claimed appears to be increasing within the Gaza 
Strip.  Although internal movement will clearly be easier in 
Gaza post-disengagement, Abu Zayd said Palestinians are not 
equating disengagement with liberation.  Instead, they joke 
that Gaza will become ICRC's largest case load of detainees, 
realizing that unemployment will not be alleviated if Gaza is 
forced to rely soley on access to Egyptian markets.  Beyond 
that, Abu Zayd noted that Hamas flags have started to line 
"virtually every street in Gaza" in anticipation of the July 
elections, sparking debate over Abu Mazen's ability to 
control the militants.  Abu Zayd confirmed that UNRWA has 
initiated land access discussions with the PA to support its 
camp development/expansion approach, despite the lack of 
information on the future disposition of Israeli settler 
assets.  Abu Zayd said that UNRWA is assuming that the PA 
municipalities will rely on UNRWA to build related camp 
infrastructure (i.e., water and sewer lines), given that they 
have turned to UNRWA technicians for assistance to develop 
their own water and sewer plans in recent years. 
 
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UNRWA SEEKS SEAT AT NEXT WORLD BANK CG 
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9. (SBU) Acknowledging that the World Bank has reservations 
about convening a consultative group meeting, Abu Zayd said 
that UNRWA is nevertheless using UN and PA channels to try to 
raise the profile of refugees in anticipation of the next 
pledging conference.  She explained that UNRWA was alarmed 
that the London Conference focused exclusively on the PA 
MTDP, asserting that PA planning excludes the almost 
two-thirds of  Gaza's population who are refugees.  Abu Zayd 
added that UNRWA would like to participate in the next AHLC, 
and any future CG, to help generate donor support for its 
MTP.  (COMMENT: UNSCO represents the UN family of agencies in 
all of the local and international donor coordination 
organizations focused on the West Bank and Gaza.  There has 
been a clear divide between UNSCO and UNRWA in the past 
which, perhaps, could now be overcome, given that both are 
experiencing leadership transitions.  END COMMENT.) 
 
HALE