US embassy cable - 05QUITO781

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000781 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, ASEC, EC 
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: DIALOGUE UNDERWAY, STRIKE POSTPONED ONE 
DAY 
 
REF: GUAYAQUIL 424 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney.  Reason 1.4 (b&d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  The government and opposition appear closer 
than ever to resolving the Supreme Court issue.  However, 
they may not achieve congressional passage of a measure to do 
so before April 13, the new start date for an indefinite 
strike in the capital and Azuay province.  Still in play are 
issues of trust and political gamesmanship between the 
Democratic Left (ID) and the government.  Thus far, the 
Ambassador's public call for dialogue has been well-received 
by all.  We continue to urge all toward a durable compromise 
to avert risks to stability.  Returned ex-president Bucaram's 
presence is being felt in various unhelpful ways.  We have 
registered our concern over Bucaram's pro-Chavez homecoming 
remarks through intermediaries, and will delay meeting with 
him directly until the situation here settles.  End Summary. 
 
Dialogue Progress 
----------------- 
 
2.  (C) Press and Embassy political contacts report that the 
government and the opposition (PSC, DP, the socialists, some 
in the ID, independents, and President Gutierrez' PSP, for a 
total of 60 votes in favor) have nearly reached consensus on 
a bill to vacate the current Supreme Court and lay out a new 
process to select a politically-neutral replacement court. 
The government has pledged that the President would not veto 
the bill, provided it meets certain conditions (including 
ratification of the selection procedures in a referendum). 
On April 7, Congress met but did not put the measure to a 
vote.  The next opportunity will be on April 12. 
 
Strike Moved Back 
----------------- 
 
3.  (U) Street protests in Quito tapered off on April 7 and 
are not expected again until April 11 at the earliest.  The 
Assembly of Quito agreed on April 7 to accommodate a request 
from counterparts in Azuay province to shift the date of the 
general strike from April 12 (a holiday in Azuay) to April 
13.  The minister of education subsequently closed all public 
and private schools in Pichincha province from April 8-13. 
Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot and PSC coastal mayors will meet 
to determine their own protest actions on April 11, but Nebot 
has stated that any protest in Guayaquil will not be 
indefinite nor seek to shut down the city.  Apart from the 
Quito Chamber of Commerce, business groups have expressed 
opposition to a strike.  Embassy cultural contacts in Cuenca, 
capital of Azuay province, report that few preparations for a 
strike are apparent and that street action there has been 
limited to candlelight vigils in condolence for the passing 
of the Pope. 
 
4.  (U) Leaders of the main indigenous group (CONAIE) have 
called for their own mobilization next week, and provincial 
indigenous leaders tell us they are putting out the word.  It 
is not clear, however, whether indigenous protests will be 
coordinated with strike leaders in Pichincha or arranged 
independently.  Cesar Montufar, leader of a civil society 
group which has participated in the Assembly of Quito, told 
us he believed mayor Moncayo made a grave tactical error by 
publicly calling on the army to cease supporting the 
government.  Montufar believes the ID would resist any accord 
which would deflate their strike, seeking to deny the 
government a political victory.  He said it was doubtful 
CONAIE could turn out sufficient numbers of indigenous to 
destabilize the government. 
 
Actions by Embassy Quito and CG Guayaquil 
----------------------------------------- 
 
5.  (SBU) The leading daily printed an editorial by the 
Ambassador on April 7, calling on all sides to put aside 
personal and partisan agendas to engage in dialogue on the 
national interest of strengthening Ecuadorian democratic 
institutions.  Reaction to the editorial has been 
overwhelmingly favorable thus far, especially from business 
and Guayaquil leaders.  Embassy and CG Guayaquil have engaged 
in intensive outreach to government, opposition, indigenous 
and civil society groups to reinforce this message. 
 
6.  (C) We have also made clear to the PRE our concern about 
Bucaram's pro-Chavez and anti-FTA homecoming remarks 
(RefTel).  Bucaram intermediaries including his son Jacobo 
have attempted to downplay the remarks, saying "these types 
of (populist) statements are standard fare in Latin American 
politics."  Jacobo also said that President Gutierrez had 
called his father to express concern; he implied that Bucaram 
agreed to refrain from expressions about foreign policy 
issues in the future.  PRE Congressional leader Mario Touma 
essentially told us the same, even adding that Bucaram had 
not decided  to run for president in 2006.  Both said Bucaram 
wished to meet with us to clear the air.  We have put off any 
direct meeting until the reaction generated by his return 
settles further.  Not coincidentally, both also expressed 
concern about our ongoing review of the visa status of 
Supreme Court president Guillermo Castro, a Bucaram ally.  We 
have refused comment on the review (on grounds of potential 
flight risk), citing the privacy of visa matters. 
 
Comment 
------- 
7.  (C) Much of the difficulty of resolving the court issue 
in Congress revolves around Bucaram.  President of Congress 
Quintana, a Bucaram supporter, has repeatedly delayed 
consideration of the current compromise, accused by the 
opposition of buying time for the clock to run out on any 
appeals of his decision.  There are strong rumors that Castro 
will use this extra time to absolve the notorious Isaias 
brothers of pending corruption charges, in return for cash 
and political support for Bucaram.  Furthermore, the 
lingering tussle over language of the congressional measure 
to vacate the current court is really about whether the 
Bucaram decision could be revisited by a future court.  Were 
the congress to rescind the resolution which created the 
current court, Castro's decision on Bucaram would be called 
into question.  The government is therefore highly unlikely 
to concede this point. 
 
8.  (C) The Congress has another opportunity to act to 
resolve the court issue when Congress returns into session on 
April 12.  The hard-core opposition here, led by Mayor 
Moncayo and Pichincha prefect Ramiro Gonzalez and their ID 
allies in Congress, seem intent on blocking an accord until 
after their strike occurs.  We are counseling all sides to 
avoid the political and economic risks of a strike by 
redoubling efforts at dialogue. 
KENNEY