US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI2677

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002677 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2015 
TAGS: PREL, ETRD, IN, CN, India-China 
SUBJECT: WEN VISIT PREVIEW: GOOD VIBES, NO BORDER 
BREAKTHROUGHS EXPECTED 
 
REF: BEIJING 5358 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Geoff Pyatt.  Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: High expectations for significant progress 
on the disputed border and other bilateral irritants during 
Premier Wen Jiabao's April 9-12 visit to India have given way 
to realism, although most China experts here expect a very 
successful trip.  The Chinese Ambassador has cautioned that 
it will take some time before a final settlement of the 
boundary is reached, while the MEA has announced a meeting at 
the Special Representative level, probably just before the 
bilaterals.  In the wake of Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran's 
March 30-31 trip to Beijing, an economic cooperation 
agreement is likely to be signed, which some analysts predict 
will be the most significant deliverable for this first 
Summit-level encounter in Delhi since 2002.  Anticipation of 
Wen's arrival has raised the pitch of India-China 
comparisons, much of it fingering New Delhi's lack of 
pragmatism in its approach to Beijing.  The other notable 
aspect of this visit is the US-India relationship looming in 
the background.  End Summary. 
 
Mood Swings 
----------- 
 
2.  (C) Following Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran's trip to 
Beijing for the March 30-31 India-China Joint Working Group 
(JWG), Indian pundits and strategic thinkers evinced high 
expectations for Wen's April 9-12 visit to India, speculating 
that an announcement would be made of guidelines to settle 
the long-running India-China border dispute (reftel).  Some 
well-informed analysts even floated the idea of a land swap 
in which India would give up its claims to China-annexed 
Aksai Chin in the west, and China would recognize India's 
claim to Arunachal Pradesh in the east.  Speaking with Poloff 
on March 31, Chinese Political Attache Wu Jian Jian would not 
confirm this scenario.  Institute for Defense Studies and 
Analyses (IDSA) researcher Deba Mohanty exercised the same 
restraint on April 8, suggesting that while Singh and Wen may 
sign off on "guiding principles" for resolving the boundary 
dispute, this will likely "amount to little more than general 
statements on the need for China and India to discuss the 
issue." 
 
3.  (C) As the visit approaches, the prospect of a major 
breakthrough has begun to fade.  In a April 6 interview in 
the "Indian Express," Chinese Ambassador Sun Yuxi stated that 
"it will take some time before a final settlement is arrived 
at."  Sun suggested there would be "positive discussion," and 
that "some documents could be exchanged, and some principles 
laid out," but "the most important point is to keep the 
border peaceful while we develop border trade and friendly 
exchanges."  Sun was noncommittal about India and the UNSC, 
stating simply that the Council "has to adapt and restructure 
to address the present needs." 
 
4.  (C) Some local pundits have also called for a cooler 
perspective.  BJP columnist Swapan Dasgupta in an April 8 
op-ed in the "Telegraph" criticized the Indian media for 
"over-hyping" the prospect for a border agreement.  He argued 
that Indian sinophiles (such as Jawarhalal Nehru University 
Professor Manmohini Kaul who was enthusiastic about the 
prospect of a major announcement while Wen is in New Delhi, 
highlighting the "benign posture" from Beijing recently) 
"fawn over China."  Citing a lack of realism in the Indian 
approach to China, he warned of less than "benign" intentions 
from Beijing.  "Outlook" Senior Analyst V. Sudarshan opined 
that while four MOUs would be signed, there would not be any 
breakthroughs during Wen's visit. 
 
Eleventh Hour Push? 
------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Echoing the Chinese Embassy's view that there were 
still details to be worked out, the MEA announced on April 1 
that another round of border discussions will be squeezed in 
before Wen arrives in New Delhi.  The Ministry stated that 
while in Beijing, Saran extended an invitation for Special 
Representative Dai Bingguo to meet Indian NSA MK Narayanan 
ahead of Wen's visit.  Political Attache Wu said this meeting 
would focus on drafting political guidelines as opposed to 
the boundary details of the JWG discussions.  IDSA Senior 
Research Fellow Srikanth Kondapalli did not expect "anything 
extraordinary," but noted positively that former Ambassador 
to China VK Nambiar, as Deputy NSA, was likely to accompany 
Naryanan. 
 
Delinking the Boundary from Bilateral Ties 
------------------------------------------ 
 
6.  (C) Stressing that the Wen visit would cover the full 
scope of India-China relations, Ambassador Sun's interview 
asserted that the "border issue should not stand in the way 
of all-round development and our bilateral relations." 
Echoing this view, PM Manmohan Singh told journalists on 
March 30 that Wen's visit would focus on economic cooperation 
(Wen will visit the IT center of Bangalore before his 
official program in New Delhi), and hinted that closer 
economic integration would add momentum to settle the 
boundary issues.  Political Attache Wu added that the PMs 
would announce a five-year plan to increase trade and 
economic linkages, following the periodic meetings of a Joint 
Working Group set up for this purpose during former PM 
Vajpayee's visit to China in 2003.  The IDSA's Mohanty 
considered the economic relationship more significant at this 
point and suspected that this was the focus of Saran's 
discussions in Beijing. 
 
7.  (C) However, some experts here question whether economic 
relations could be delinked from the unresolved border issue. 
 Even the optimistic Professor Kaul told Poloff that the 
India-China relationship cannot grow to its full potential 
without settlement of the border issue, as did JNU Professor 
Swaran Singh who asserted that despite improving ties, the 
boundary issue remains central to the relationship.  This 
Indian impatience contrasts with the studiously aloof PRC 
approach to the border talks. 
 
China On My Mind 
---------------- 
 
8.  (U) Reflecting the relative infrequency of India-China 
summits, New Delhi's China watchers have been intensely 
focused on this visit.  Criticizing both New Delhi and 
Beijing for "lofty words used to drug domestic audiences," 
the "Indian Express" in a March 28 editorial looked forward 
to PM Singh and Wen approaching the relationship with a 
"pragmatic mindset."  Pragmatism was what Center for Policy 
Research's Brahma Chellany commented was lacking in India's 
approach to China, noting Beijing's "strategic clarity" as 
opposed to India's "naive idealism."  Chellany has argued 
forcefully that India's approach of cooperation over 
competition has resulted in a playing field which Beijing has 
unleveled with "hard-nosed realism." 
 
9.  (C) One other notable aspect of this visit -- unmentioned 
but implicit in much India-China diplomacy -- is the 
improving relationship with Washington.  MEA Joint Secretary 
(Americas) S. Jaishankar told us recently that the PRC had 
reacted nervously to the Secretary's speech at Sophia 
University in Tokyo, and had asked the Indians what they 
should make of US declarations that India should be "a major 
power in the 21st century."  Jaishankar indicated that the 
GOI was keenly focused on managing its China relationship in 
a way that did not disrupt ties with the US. 
 
Comment 
------- 
10.  (C) In view of the intensification of ties with the US, 
the Congress government will be under pressure from its Left 
allies to demonstrate momentum with China as well.  Indeed, 
press reports indicate that Sonia Gandhi and the PM met with 
Left leaders to discuss the visit.  Because of the importance 
of the border issue to India-China relations, positive 
signals on that will be necessary for the Wen visit to be 
declared a success, although progress in areas such as trade, 
education and technology could also provide optimism.  That 
said, an announcement of principles by which to settle the 
territorial dispute would be an important step forward. 
MULFORD