US embassy cable - 05CARACAS1011

C O N F I D E N T I A L  CARACAS 001011 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NSC FOR CBARTON 
HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2014 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, VE 
SUBJECT: ACCION DEMOCRATICA:  LOOKING FOR VOTES IN ALL THE 
WRONG PLACES 
 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR 1.4 (D) 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C)  Accion Democratica (AD), Venezuela's largest 
opposition party, lacks a credible strategy to confront the 
administration of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.  AD does 
not appear to be either revising its platform or attempting 
to build coalitions with other parties.  Instead, the party 
is appealing to governments and political parties abroad, 
banking that they will help it confront Chavez.  AD fears 
that other parties may eclipse it, and this in turn 
conditions its approach towards Chavez.  The party is 
suffering from internal strains over disagreements with the 
party leadership such as whether to boycott this year's 
municipal and National Assembly elections.  AD, which is the 
only opposition party with a link on the electoral council 
(CNE), is likely to compete in upcoming elections, if only to 
keep from losing a place in national politics that is largely 
dependent on its foothold as one of Venezuela's historic 
political parties.  End summary. 
 
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Short on Strategy 
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2.  (C)  Venezuelan opposition party Accion Democratica (AD) 
is doing little to prepare for municipal and National 
Assembly elections scheduled for August and December, 
respectively.  Since President Hugo Chavez's administration 
hammered the opposition in the October 31 regional elections, 
AD has failed to rethink its public platform.  Party first 
vice president Victor Bolivar complained to poloff February 
22 that Chavez's economic policies were unsustainable. 
Asked, however, how the party could communicate such failures 
to the public, Bolivar merely resumed his criticism.  Efforts 
to engage former party president Carlos Canache March 22 also 
fell flat; Canache could only suggest that AD's national 
platform endorse freedom and democracy.  Alfredo Coronil, 
AD's international affairs secretary, pointed to a June party 
congress (originally scheduled for February but postponed 
several times) that would review AD's doctrine. 
 
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We Can At Least Win a State 
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3.  (C)  A member of AD's national secretariat of 
professionals told poloff the party would focus on winning 
the gubernatorial elections in sparsely populated Amazonas 
State, which will take place along with the municipal 
elections August 7.  Winning the state, he said, would carry 
the party into the National Assembly elections with momentum. 
 Party officials told poloff that their candidate, AD 
secretary of organization Bernabe Gutierrez, had a good shot 
 
SIPDIS 
at winning.  (Note:  Press reports from 1998 describe 
Gutierrez, a former Amazonas governor, as a corrupt official 
who shamelessly used state funds in his reelection campaign. 
The National Electoral Council forced Gutierrez, facing 
charges of election fraud, to step down in 2000 after a vote 
recount.) 
 
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Who Needs Allies? 
----------------- 
 
4.  (C)  AD has not sought alliances with other parties. 
Canache said that neither AD nor any other important 
opposition parties were joining forces.  AD secretary general 
Henry Ramos Allup fumed at an internal party meeting in 
November that other opposition parties had nothing to offer 
AD, which he claimed was the only party able to siphon votes 
from Chavez's Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) party.  Echoing 
comments from other opposition parties, Coronil said that his 
party was "talking" with other groups, but he did not predict 
the formation of any new coalitions. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Won't You Please, Please Help Us 
 
 
-------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C)  Most AD officials appear to believe that reaching 
out to sympathetic governments and parties abroad should be 
the party's main focus.  According to press, party president 
Jesus Mendez Quijada listed disseminating among the 
international community an alternative view of Venezuela's 
political situation as one of two party goals.  Bolivar, 
describing AD as the opposition's only hope, made a direct 
pitch to poloff in February for USG resources to help AD 
confront the Chavez administration.  An alternate deputy to 
the National Assembly also protested to poloff that AD was 
facing having to drop out of the Socialist International 
movement because it could not afford its membership dues, 
while the MVR planned to join with the support of some 
European political parties.  AD did not participate in a 
meeting with Spanish President Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero 
March 30 (SEPTEL), reportedly because AD leaders felt that 
the party's historic ties with the Socialist International 
and Zapatero's Socialist Worker's Party warranted a separate 
session. 
 
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Internal Discord 
---------------- 
 
6.  (C)  Disagreement over whether to participate in upcoming 
elections has created tension among the AD faithful.  Former 
party president Canache and former secretary general Octavio 
LePage wrote a letter urging the party to boycott future 
elections unless the GOV provides objective representation on 
the National Electoral Council, cleans up the National 
Electoral Register, and guarantees a manual count of votes. 
Party secretary general Ramos declared he would allow the AD 
grassroots to decide whether to participate in elections, but 
other AD interlocutors suggested the party had already 
decided to compete.  In addition to the party officials' 
admission that the Amazonas election was the party's first 
priority, the AD mayors registered their opposition to a 
boycott in a meeting with the party executive March 7, 
according to press. 
 
7.  (C)  AD also has unresolved leadership issues.  According 
to press reports, former AD secretary general Humberto Celli 
announced his resignation from the party's executive 
committee, which he blasted for what he termed a 
short-sighted strategy that allowed the administration to win 
over voters from social classes who traditionally had 
supported AD.  Coronil complained to poloff and the USAID 
country representative that his party allowed young, creative 
officials no political space.  Coronil said he had aligned 
himself with the youth and women's wings of the party to push 
for reform, but the AD old guard were not interested in 
change.  Naming two AD "youths" over 40 who deserved a chance 
to lead the party, Coronil anticipated the review of most 
party executive positions during internal party elections, 
which could be delayed until after the August municipal 
elections, according to Canache. 
 
8.  (C)  AD leaders have fought to squelch rumors that some 
of them are making backroom deals with the Chavez 
administration.  Ramos vowed in a November party meeting that 
AD would not be co-opted, ruling that no one would talk to 
MVR officials outside of public fora.  According to press 
reports, the executive committee on January 13 suspended from 
party activities former Caracas Mayor Claudio Fermin for 
declaring his opposition to the policy of avoiding the MVR. 
 
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Comment 
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9.  (C)  As AD officials are quick to assert, AD is the 
largest opposition party and the only one with national 
reach.  Nonetheless, it is remarkably ill-prepared to 
confront Chavismo.  AD's custom of harping on Chavez's 
anti-democratic tendencies will not attract votes from a 
movement of former coup-plotters elected on a platform of 
poverty alleviation.  The pursuit of solidarity and resources 
abroad reflects the party's sense of desperation.  Even 
though boycotting elections would generate more international 
 
 
interest in its plight, AD is likely to run candidates this 
year because the alternative would be to risk allowing 
Chavez--along with smaller opposition parties--to absorb much 
of the support it has left.  The suspension of Fermin 
probably is the party's attempt to distance itself from a 
figure widely considered corrupt while tainting him as a 
Chavez sympathizer. 
Brownfield 
 
 
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      2005CARACA01011 - CONFIDENTIAL