US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV2194

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002194 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2010 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KWBG, GZ, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: FATAH ELECTION PREP IN GAZA - IS THE MESSAGE 
GETTING THROUGH? 
 
REF: A. JERUSALEM 0674 
 
     B. TEL AVIV 0595 
 
Classified By: Pol/C Norm Olsen for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary: Fatah's poor showing in Bar Association 
elections in Gaza April 2 is an indication that, despite some 
efforts, the party does not appear to be "getting the 
message" in Gaza.  Fatah Central Committee member Abdullah 
Efrangi, now the newly-appointed Fatah chief in Gaza, 
described Fatah's program of reaching out to grassroots party 
members through a series of public meetings or "primaries," 
involving more members in the development of candidate lists. 
 Skepticism remains, however, about whether these efforts 
will succeed in getting at what some feel is the heart of 
Fatah's problem: Gazans' mounting frustration with tainted 
officials in leadership positions and a lack of visible 
improvements in their daily lives in the post-Arafat era. 
Although Hamas has done well in two sets of elections in 
getting its candidates elected, there is some evidence that 
newly-elected Hamas municipal officials, unable to respond to 
their constituents' concerns through lack of resources, 
experience, or both, may join their Fatah counterparts in 
facing an increasingly discouraged electorate.  End Summary. 
 
-------------------------- 
Fatah's Strategy in Action 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) The newly-appointed Fatah chief in the Gaza Strip, 
Abdullah Efrangi, assured Poloff April 5 that Fatah is indeed 
taking steps to address the voter dissatisfaction displayed 
in victories by Hamas and Hamas-affiliated candidates in 
seven of the ten Gaza municipalities that held municipal 
elections in January (Note: The ten municipalities were all 
relatively small communities.  Elections in the remaining 
larger, urban areas of Rafah, Khan Yunis and Gaza City are to 
take place later this year.  End Note).  Efrangi indicated 
that he is acting with President Abbas' full support, in line 
with plans developed in an early February meeting of the 
Fatah Revolutionary Council (Ref A).  He enthusiastically 
described how the party is now encouraging selection of 
candidates for the municipal elections from the bottom up, 
rather than the top down, as happened in January (Ref B).  As 
an example of this approach, Efrangi described a meeting or 
"primary" Fatah recently held in Rafah, where some 3,000 
party adherents gathered to select 15 candidates for the 
Fatah slate there in the upcoming municipals.  The list of 44 
from which the participants made their choices was itself the 
result of an earlier public meeting in Rafah of 2,800 grass 
roots party members.  Similar meetings have been ongoing or 
are planned for other municipalities where the second of 
three rounds of elections will be held in early May. 
 
---------------- 
Same Old Message 
---------------- 
 
3.  (C) Prominent Gaza attorney and would-be Legislative 
Council candidate Sharhabeel al-Za'eem bemoaned the fact that 
many suggested Fatah candidates are still "connected with 
corruption," in a separate conversation about Fatah's efforts 
to develop lists of electable candidates.  Al-Za'eem said he 
had just attended a session of Fatah party operatives in Dayr 
al-Balah to discuss candidates, lists, and strategy for 
upcoming PLC and municipal elections, and became more 
discouraged than ever after the operatives said they are not 
looking outside Fatah for qualified candidates, as Hamas is 
doing by actively embracing independents.  He said Fatah's 
efforts to generate a new look are being further hampered by 
the ongoing "generational struggle" within the party, which 
detracts from efforts to woo electable candidates to Fatah's 
banner.  Al-Za'eem said that Fatah has consistently failed to 
update its message to the people, trading instead on outdated 
slogans from the 60's and 70's, despite monumental changes in 
the situation on the ground. 
 
------------------- 
Hamas Does it Again 
------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Al-Za'eem described the April 2 elections for 
leadership positions in the Gaza branch of the Palestinian 
Bar Association as a case in point.  Clearly disgusted, 
al-Za'eem said that Hamas-affiliated members won four of the 
six seats, despite the fact that Fatah members comprise 320 
of the 460 branch's members.  Some 105 of the 
Fatah-affiliated members did not show up to vote, al-Za'eem 
said, but that still left 215 Fatah members voting, compared 
with 140 non-Fatah (Hamas plus a small number of 
independents) members.  Nevertheless, he said, Fatah managed 
to elect only two of its members, neither of whom is in any 
way impressive.  Al-Za'eem freely admitted that he was 
discouraged by the entire process, adding that Fatah will 
keep on losing, "until they are the smallest minority party 
in the PLO."  Fatah, he concluded, still does not understand 
what the problem is and, despite some efforts, is not putting 
forward electable candidates. 
----------------------------------- 
Hamas Can Win, But Can They Govern? 
----------------------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Salah Sakka, an appointed member of the Gaza City 
Council since 1994 and head of the Gaza office of ANERA 
(American Near East Refugee Aid), echoed al-Za'eem's 
skepticism that senior Fatah members have "gotten the 
message" of Palestinians' disgruntlement with the party. 
Other factions, such as Hamas, have wisely decided to 
participate in the political process and are well-positioned 
to capitalize on Fatah's weakness in upcoming races, he 
opined.  Sakka also cited continued infighting within the 
party and ongoing generational conflict among the "younger" 
and older party members as reasons why the party remains 
unable to get its act together in Gaza. 
 
6.  (C) Sakka noted, however, that although the ten municipal 
councils elected in January had been in office too short a 
time to definitively gauge performance, their mayors are "not 
doing well."  Sakka ascribed the problem to a lack of 
experience, saying that those elected, while by and large 
"good people," have little or no experience in governing. 
The PA Ministry of Local Government compounds the problem by 
offering little in the way of either training or resources, 
he said.  Demonstrating his point, Sakka said that in recent 
weeks, representatives from the new, non-Fatah councils in 
Dayr al-Balah, al-Masdar, and Bayt Hanoun had been to ANERA's 
offices in search of assistance -- in particular 
infrastructure projects and training. 
 
7.  (C) Sakka's views on the performance of the new mayors 
were echoed a few days later by Ministry of Interior DG for 
Municipal Government Abdulsamia Efrangi (brother of Fatah 
Central Committee member Abdullah), who painted an extremely 
negative view of the voters' mood in Gaza.  Efrangi assessed 
the new municipal leaders as "failures," but added that he 
was still not confident that Fatah could capitalize on the 
perceived poor performance to date of the non-Fatah councils 
elected in January. 
 
 
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