US embassy cable - 02HANOI1379

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001379 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, EAP/RSP 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, MARR, PINR, VM, CVR, ASEAN 
SUBJECT:  VIETNAM AND THE SPRATLYS: STRONG TALK, 
--          BUT PLAYING IT SAFE 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HANOI  01379  01 OF 02  300923Z 
REF:  HANOI 431 
 
1.  (U)  SUMMARY.  GVN OFFICIALS CONTINUE TO TAKE A FIRM 
LINE CONCERNING VIETNAM'S SOVEREIGNTY CLAIMS OVER THE 
SPRATLY ISLANDS.  PROVINCIAL CLAIMS CONCERNING CIVILIAN 
INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE SPRATLYS APPEAR EXAGGERATED.  VIETNAM 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SOUTH CHINA SEA CODE OF CONDUCT 
(REFTEL), AN IMPORTANT CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURE. 
DISCUSSIONS AT THE NATIONAL AND PROVINCIAL LEVEL INDICATE 
STRONG SUPPORT FOR MAINTAINING THE STATUS QUO AND SETTLING 
OUTSTANDING ISSUES BY "PEACEFUL MEANS."  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
THE VIEW FROM KHANH HOA--OTHER CLAIMS NOT RELEVANT 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
2.  (U)  KHANH HOA PROVINCE, LOCATED ALONG VIETNAM'S SOUTH 
CENTRAL COAST, HAS ADMINISTRATIVE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE 
SPRATLY CHAIN, KNOWN IN VIETNAMESE AS THE QUAN DAO TRUONG 
SA.  THE ISLANDS FORM A DISTRICT WITHIN THE PROVINCE, AND 
ARE LOCATED ABOUT 200 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE COAST. 
ACCORDING TO TRAN AN KHANH, CHIEF OF THE EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF 
THE KHANH HOA PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S COMMITTEE, "IT IS 
IRRELEVANT WHICH COUNTRIES MAKE CLAIMS-THE SPRATLYS ARE PART 
OF VIETNAM AND ALWAYS WILL BE."  KHANH ADMITTED THAT MOST OF 
THE VIETNAMESE POPULATION IN THE SPRATLYS CONSISTS OF 
MILITARY FORCES, WHILE CLAIMING THAT THERE IS A 
"SIGNIFICANT" CIVILIAN POPULATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE, 
INCLUDING SCHOOLS, BANKS, AND POST OFFICES.  KHANH WAS 
UNABLE TO SAY HOW MANY CIVILIANS LIVE THERE, NOR COULD HE 
PROVIDE DETAILS CONCERNING THE CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.  HE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  01379  01 OF 02  300923Z 
ADDED THAT ONLY DISTRICT OFFICIALS WOULD HAVE "MORE 
INFORMATION."  HOWEVER, WHEN POLOFFS REQUESTED TO MEET WITH 
DISTRICT OFFICIALS, KHANH SAID THIS WAS "IMPOSSIBLE" BECAUSE 
THEY WERE "TOO BUSY."  NEWSPAPER REPORTING ABOUT MAY 19 
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS IN THE SPRATLY DISTRICT 
UNIFORMLY SHOWED MILITARY TROOPS GETTING AND CASTING 
BALLOTS; THEY WERE ALLOWED TO START VOTING EARLY DUE TO THE 
DISTANCES INVOLVED. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
THE VIEW FROM HANOI - STRONG WORDS, BUT . . . 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (U)  ACCORDING TO NGUYEN THI THAN HA, SENIOR EXPERT IN 
THE MFA'S DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL LAW AND TREATIES 
DEPARTMENT, THE "HISTORICAL AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK CLEARLY 
PROVES VIETNAM'S CLAIM."  SHE PROVIDED A LONG AND HIGHLY 
LEGALISTIC 1988 MFA ARTICLE DELINEATING VIETNAM'S CLAIM, 
ADDING THAT, "OUR POSITION HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THIS 
ARTICLE -- THE SPRATLYS ARE VIETNAM."  MFA PUBLIC 
STATEMENTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY REITERATED THAT "VIETNAM 
AFFIRMS ITS INDISPUTABLE SOVEREIGNTY OVER TRUONG SA 
(SPRATLYS)."  DR. NGUYEN QUANG NGOC, VIETNAM HANOI NATIONAL 
UNIVERSITY'S DEAN OF HISTORY, SAID SEPARATELY THAT, WHILE 
VIETNAM UNDERSTANDS OTHER CLAIMS EXIST TO THE SPRATLYS, 
"THERE IS NO DOUBT OUR CLAIM IS HISTORICALLY JUSTIFIED." 
SIMILARLY, LE QUY QUYNH, DEPUTY CHIEF OF THE SOUTHEAST ASIA 
AFFAIRS DIVISION OF THE GVN'S BORDER COMMISSION, SAID 
VIETNAM'S RIGHTS TO THE SPRATLYS "CANNOT BE DISPUTED, 
ALTHOUGH THE PROBLEM IS COMPLEX," HE ADMITTED. 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  01379  01 OF 02  300923Z 
-------------------------------- 
 . . .LET'S BE CAREFUL OUT THERE 
-------------------------------- 
 
4.  (U)  MFA CHINA DESK DIRECTOR TRAN DUY HAI TOLD POLOFF 
THAT, DURING RECENT HIGH LEVEL VISITS BETWEEN VIETNAM AND 
THE PRC, LEADERS HAVE RAISED THE SPRATLYS, BUT ALWAYS 
NOWADAYS WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF PLEDGING TO "MAINTAIN THE 
STATUS QUO, REFRAIN FROM FURTHER COMPLICATIONS, AND SETTLE 
THE DISPUTE THROUGH PEACEFUL MEANS."  HE POINTED TO THE 
JOINT COMMUNIQU ISSUED AFTER PRC PRESIDENT JIANG ZEMIN'S 
VISIT TO VIETNAM LAST FEBRUARY, WHEREBY BOTH SIDES "PLEDGED 
TO EXERT FURTHER EFFORTS TO MAINTAIN PEACE AND STABILITY IN 
THE EAST (SOUTH CHINA) SEA."  AN MFA STATEMENT FOLLOWING 
VIETNAM PRESIDENT TRAN DUC LUONG'S VISIT TO THE PRC IN 
DECEMBER 2000 ALSO REITERATED THE COMMITMENT TO "SEEK AN 
EVERLASTING SOLUTION ACCEPTABLE TO BOTH SIDES THROUGH 
PEACEFUL NEGOTIATIONS."  (NOTE:  THESE STATEMENTS ARE ALL 
SUPPORTIVE OF THE 1995 VIETNAM-PRC AGREEMENT TO ADDRESS THE 
THREE AREAS OF TERRITORIAL DISPUTE SEQUENTIALLY. END NOTE) 
ANOTHER MFA STATEMENT IN MAY 2001 RESTATED VIETNAM'S 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ8973 
 
PAGE 01        HANOI  01379  02 OF 02  300923Z 
ACTION EAP-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AIT-03   ACQ-00   CIAE-00  DOTE-00  DS-00 
      EB-00    FAAE-00  FBIE-00  UTED-00  VC-00    TEDE-00  INR-00 
      VCE-00   NSAE-00  PM-00    TEST-00  EPAE-00  ECA-00   PMB-00 
      DSCC-00  DRL-02   NFAT-00  SAS-00     /005W 
                  ------------------B59480  300923Z /38 
R 300910Z MAY 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6618 
INFO AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 
AMEMBASSY BEIJING 
AIT TAIPEI 0693 
ASEAN COLLECTIVE 
NSC WASHDC 
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//FPA// 
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ABLAGG// 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 HANOI 001379 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV, EAP/RSP 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HANOI  01379  02 OF 02  300923Z 
SOVEREIGNTY OVER THE SPRATLYS, BUT STRESSED THAT "VIETNAM 
INTENDS TO SOLVE ALL DISPUTES THROUGH PEACEFUL NEGOTIATIONS 
BASED ON RESPECT FOR INTERNATIONAL LAWS, PARTICULARLY THE 
1982 UN CONVENTION ON THE LAW OF THE SEA AND THE 1992 MANILA 
DECLARATION ON THE EAST SEA." 
 
5.  (U)  VIETNAM ALSO REMAINS COMMITTED TO THE LONG- 
NEGOTIATED CODE OF CONDUCT FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, 
ACCORDING TO PHAM CAO PHONG, DIRECTOR OF NORTHEAST ASIA 
STUDIES OF THE MFA'S INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 
(IIR), WHO EMPHASIZED THAT VIETNAM IS "FULLY COMMITTED TO 
THE ASEAN INITIATIVE" (SEPTEL). 
 
6.  (SBU)  ONE PHILIPPINE EMBOFF DESCRIBED TO POLOFF HOW, 
FOLLOWING SOME VIOLENT CLASHES IN THE MID-1990S BETWEEN 
PHILIPPINE AND VIETNAMESE NAVAL FORCES, MILITARY COMMANDERS 
HAD MET AND DEVELOPED THEIR OWN MILITARY-TO-MILITARY "CODE 
OF CONDUCT" TO PREVENT FUTURE CLASHES.  THE EMBOFF ADDED 
THAT THE PHILIPPINE GOVERNMENT HAS TAKEN THE LEAD IN 
DEVELOPING THE DRAFT CODE OF CONDUCT (NOW IN ITS NINTH 
ITERATION) AND HOPES IT CAN BE ADOPTED "THIS SUMMER IN 
BRUNEI."   ACCORDING TO MALAYSIAN EMBASSY EMBOFFS, MALAYSIA 
IS ENGAGED IN SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH AND TOURISM IN THE FIVE 
ISLANDS IT CLAIMS.  SOLDIERS ARE ALSO STATIONED "TO PROVIDE 
PROTECTION," THEY CLAIMED.  THE MALAYSIAN GOVERNMENT 
"STRONGLY SUPPORTS" THE CODE OF CONDUCT AND AGREES THE 
DISPUTE SHOULD BE SETTLED BY "PEACEFUL MEANS," THE EMBOFFS 
ADDED.  (NOTE:  MFA/ASEAN DEPARTMENT DEPUTY DIRECTOR GENERAL 
PHAM HUU CHI TOLD POLOFFS ON MAY 30 THAT MALAYSIA DOES NOT 
WANT THE ISLANDS IT CLAIMS CONSIDERED WITHIN THE CODE OF 
CONDUCT, WHICH IT HAS SO FAR INSISTED BE LIMITED TO THE 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  01379  02 OF 02  300923Z 
SPRATLY GROUP, HE OBSERVED.  END NOTE) 
 
7.  (SBU)  ACCORDING TO A PRC EMBOFF, THERE IS "NO DOUBT" 
CONCERNING PRC SOVEREIGNTY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTH CHINA SEA 
AREA;  THIS IS A "HISTORICAL FACT," THE EMBOFF EMPHASIZED. 
THE EMBOFF NOTED THAT THE PRC NONETHELESS AGREES WITH 
VIETNAM AND OTHER ASEAN NATIONS THAT THE DISPUTE "SHOULD BE 
SOLVED PEACEFULLY."  THE PROPOSED CODE OF CONDUCT IS AN 
"IMPORTANT CONFIDENCE BUILDING MEASURE THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE 
TO REGIONAL STABILITY," THE EMBOFF OPINED.  SEPARATELY, AN 
OFFICIAL AT THE TAIPEI ECONOMIC AND CULTURAL OFFICE (TECO) 
IN HANOI NOTED THAT TAIWAN CONSIDERS ITS CLAIM TO THE ENTIRE 
ARCHIPELAGO "VALID," BUT IS ALSO COMMITTED TO SOLVING THE 
PROBLEM "PEACEFULLY."  THE OFFICIAL SAID HE "EXPECTED" 
TAIWAN WOULD RESPECT THE CODE OF CONDUCT WHEN/IF IT IS 
ADOPTED. 
 
--------------------------- 
WHERE DO THEY GO FROM HERE? 
--------------------------- 
 
8.  (U)  NGUYEN HUY QUY, DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF CHINA 
STUDIES, CALLED THE CODE OF CONDUCT A "STEP IN THE RIGHT 
DIRECTION," WHILE NOTING THAT IT CAN ONLY BE CONSIDERED A 
"CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURE" AND DOES NOT MEAN THE DISPUTE 
IS ANY CLOSER TO RESOLUTION.  HE OBSERVED THAT, SINCE THE 
DISPUTE INVOLVES SEVERAL COUNTRIES WITH COMPETING CLAIMS, 
ANY POTENTIAL SOLUTION REMAINS "VERY COMPLEX."  HANOI 
UNIVERSITY'S NGOC COMMENTED SEPARATELY THAT THE BASIC 
PROBLEM IS THAT "NO PARTY HAS AN INCENTIVE TO SETTLE THE 
DISPUTE BECAUSE THERE ARE SO MANY COMPETING CLAIMS."  AS A 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  01379  02 OF 02  300923Z 
RESULT, HE OPINED, "I DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE THE PROBLEM 
RESOLVED IN MY LIFETIME."  THE IIR'S PHONG SAID THAT WHILE 
ALL PARTIES "ARE ANXIOUS TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO AND 
PROMOTE REGIONAL STABILITY, NONE IS WILLING TO COMPROMISE ON 
TERRITORIAL CLAIMS," THUS MAKING A PERMANENT AGREEMENT 
"UNLIKELY." 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
9.  (U)  VIETNAM'S SUPPORT FOR THE CODE OF CONDUCT IS AN 
IMPORTANT COMPONENT OF ITS DECADE-LONG STRATEGY OF GETTING 
ALONG WITH ITS NEIGHBORS AND MAKING REGIONAL PEACE AND 
STABILITY A TOP NATIONAL PRIORITY.  WE EXPECT TO SEE 
CONTINUED RESTRAINT BY THE VIETNAMESE MILITARY TO AVOID NEW 
PROVOCATIVE STEPS, BUT ALSO DOUBT THAT THE GVN WOULD 
RENOUNCE OR MODIFY ITS TERRITORIAL CLAIMS IN THE FORESEEABLE 
FUTURE. 
PORTER 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED