US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI2631

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002631 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PGOV, PK, IN, Kashmir 
SUBJECT: HISTORIC SRINAGAR-MUZAFFARABAD "PEACE CARAVAN" 
ROLLS! 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 2604 
 
     B. NEW DELHI 2270 
 
Classified By: A/DCM Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: In an act of personal and political courage, 
the Prime Minister, joined by key cabinet and Congress Party 
colleagues, traveled to Srinagar on April 7 to inaugurate the 
bus service that has captured the imaginations of Kashmiris 
on both sides of the LOC.  Emphasizing that "nothing can stop 
it now," the PM and others went out of their way to thank 
President Musharraf for agreeing to this important CBM.  In 
an April 7 meeting, Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran agreed with 
the Ambassador that the bus is a "dramatic and historic 
event," but advised that its long-term success "depends on 
Pakistan."  Saran reported that two of the four terrorist 
groups that carried out the April 6 attack in Srinagar, are 
linked to Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) and expressed the hope that 
Islamabad would respond by dismantling terrorist 
infrastructure in Pakistan.  As a result of this attack and 
other increasingly brazen threats, 11 of the 30 initial 
passengers dropped out.  The trip otherwise passed without 
incident.  Indian TV carried almost non-stop coverage all 
day, showing emotional scenes of travellers crossing the 
"Peace Bridge" between Indian and Pakistani Kashmir for the 
first time in 58 years.  National Conference President Omar 
Abdullah reflected broad popular sentiment in J&K favoring 
the bus service, saying that terrorists and other separatists 
who oppose it are "out of touch with reality."  It is 
difficult to overstate the importance of the bus as a symbol 
of rapproachement between New Delhi and Islamabad, but it is 
also difficult not to agree with Saran, given the clear and 
continuous attempts by Pakistan-based terrorist groups to 
wreck it.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (C) Demonstrating personal and political courage, the 
Prime Minister, joined by key cabinet and Congress Party 
colleagues Sonia Gandhi, NSA MK Narayanan, Foreign Minister 
Natwar Singh, Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyer, and the 
most important Kashmiri Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad 
traveled to Srinagar on April 7 to inaugurate a bus service. 
Braving increasingly explicit terrorist threats in recent 
days against passengers and the vehicles, including a brazen 
April 6 suicide attack on the J&K state bus company and the 
building complex where passengers were being housed prior to 
their departure (Ref A), the GOI demonstrated that the attack 
had only stiffened its resolve to carry forward and make this 
CBM a success. 
 
PM: "Nothing can Stop it" 
------------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Speaking under heavy security protection to a 
smallish crowd, the PM was gracious, thanking President 
Musharraf for his leadership in this humanitarian 
undertaking: "The bus has opened a new chapter in the 
relations between India and Pakistan.  It will unite brother 
with sister, people who never dreamt of coming together will 
do so.  This is a bus of hope."  The PM went on to sketch his 
desire that the "peace caravan" (as the GOI is calling it) 
will be first step in growing interaction between India and 
Pakistan centered around Kashmir, with the LOC becoming 
increasingly porous and a nexus of trade between India, 
Pakistan and Central Asia, although he also warned that it 
would be a "long journey."  Other speakers echoed these 
themes, with Sonia Gandhi stressing that the peace process 
cannot be derailed, highlighting the opportunity of the bus 
to foster Indo-Pak brotherhood, and saying the GOI is 
prepared to open additional routes between India and Pakistan 
in J&K.  Recalling that her late husband Rajiv Gandhi and 
mother-in-law Indira Gandhi were both Kashmiris, she 
reiterated her commitment to Kashmir as part of their legacy. 
 J&K Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Saeed called the bus 
service "the best thing to have happened to Kashmir in 58 
years." 
 
MEA: Depends on Pakistan 
------------------------ 
4.  (C) In an April 7 meeting, Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran 
agreed with the Ambassador that the bus was a "dramatic and 
historic event."  The passengers had shown great courage in 
the face of the April 6 terrorist attack in Srinagar, and the 
threats against them personally.  Saran advised, however, 
that a "great deal depends on the other side.  If the April 6 
attack provokes a clampdown on the militants, it will have 
served a certain purpose.  We'll see."  The Foreign Secretary 
also reported that at least two of the four groups that 
claimed responsibility for the April 6 attack are front 
groups for LeT, based in Pakistan.  He made clear that the 
GOI will be deeply disappointed if Islamabad does not take 
some concrete action against LeT in response to the attack. 
 
 
Passengers Drop Out 
------------------- 
 
5.  (C) Of the 30 passengers originally booked for the 7-8 
hour journey, only 19 actually travelled, plus PDP President 
Mehbooba Mufti Saeed, whose request to travel across the LOC 
was denied.  Following increasingly personal terrorist 
threats, seven more passengers withdrew on April 6 and April 
7 citing concern for their safety and various (to all 
appearances minor) ailments.  The streets of Srinagar and 
several other larger towns were largely empty on April 7 in 
response to strike calls by terrorist groups and hardline 
separatist elements that oppose the bus service as "a 
diversion from the core Kashmir issue." 
 
No Serious Incidents 
-------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Despite a sharp increase in the number and nature of 
terrorist threats against the buses (dubbed "rolling coffins" 
by the four terrorist groups), the vehicles made their 
journey to the Kaman Bridge without harm.  An incident some 
45 minutes after the buses left Srinagar (under heavy 
security escort on schedule at about 1100 AM local time) was 
not serious.  Reports vary, but terrorists appear to have 
fired two rifle grenades at the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad road 
near Pattan, but they were fired either from beyond range or 
after the buses had passed, and did not come close to hitting 
them.  This was followed by scattered rifle shots.  Security 
sources in Srinagar considered the incident more of a warning 
than a serious attack.  There were no injuries.  Some media 
reported an improvised explosive device (IED) explosion 
shortly after mid-day in Sopore as a bus-related incident; 
the town is located some 27km from the road.  Other reports 
indicated that a GOI Road Opening Party discovered and 
disarmed a large IED on the bus route early on April 7. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C) The bus service is the most concrete evidence to date 
of Manmohan Singh's leadership and willingness to take risks 
for peace.  The buses would never have rolled had the MEA and 
MHA bureaucracies been left in charge of Indo-Pak relations. 
The bus fits in neatly with the PM's vision of borders as 
increasingly irrelevant in a globalized world, and as a means 
to reduce their relevance between India and Pakistan.  While 
some 1/3 of the Indian passengers dropped out, largely 
because of terrorist threats, we hear from Srinagar that the 
reservoir of potential travellers is very large, and that 
they refuse to be deterred.  National Conference President 
Omar Abdullah put it best, when he said on April 6 that the 
militants are "out of touch with reality" in J&K.  The 
popular support for this road in the state is very strong. 
On the Indian side, it is difficult to overstate the 
political importance of the bus as a symbol of falling 
barriers between India and Pakistan, and it cannot but have a 
positive effect on the Kashmir issue.  It is also difficult 
to disagree with Saran that the long-term success of the bus 
service depends on Pakistani efforts to reign in the 
terrorists, who are determined to wreck this major CBM. 
MULFORD