US embassy cable - 05QUITO764

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000764 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, ASEC, EC 
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: POLITICAL TEMPERATURE RISING 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney.  Reason 1.4 (b&d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Anti-government protests flared in Quito on 
April 5, continued on April 6, and are likely to continue 
April 7.  Thus far the GOE has reacted with restraint, using 
tear gas to disperse protesters attempting to forcibly enter 
Congress.  A national strike was convoked by the opposition 
Assembly of Quito for April 12, but its scope is still 
unclear.  Guayaquil leaders have convoked an assembly to 
consider whether to join the strike.  The Ambassador is 
publicly and privately counseling restraint and peaceful 
dialogue on all sides, but the opposition seems intent on 
exploiting national outrage over the return of former 
president Bucaram, to bring down the government.  The main 
indigenous group has announced that it will support 
anti-government protests, but its members are not yet visible 
in the streets.  The military and police remain loyal to 
President Gutierrez, who has canceled his trip to Rome, 
purportedly to preside over definitive resolution of the 
festering court issue.  End Summary. 
 
Clashes Outside Court and Congress 
---------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) On April 5, hundreds of judicial workers protested 
outside the Supreme Court, and were dispersed by tear gas. 
Several protesters were reportedly injured and over 100 
reportedly suffered from effects of the gas.  Later in the 
day, the Assembly of Quito, led by Quito Mayor Paco Moncayo, 
declared a national strike for April 12, and led a march of 
approximately 4,000 on Congress.  There the protesters were 
dispersed by tear gas after attempting to forcibly enter the 
Congress building to pressure legislators to immediately 
vacate the Supreme Court.  President of Congress Omar 
Quintana closed the session without discussing the court 
issue.  Inside the Congress building, several opposition 
legislators temporarily detained and later released the 
police official assigned to Congress. 
 
3.  (SBU) Moncayo later accused the government of talking 
peace but using violence against protesters and publicly 
called for the police and military to cease supporting the 
Gutierrez government and respect the right to peaceful 
protest.  According to an unconfirmed account from 
Presidential Legal Advisor Carlos Larrea, who called us in 
alarm, Moncayo also claimed the USG had withdrawn support for 
the Gutierrez government.  We assured him that there had been 
no change in US policy in support of Ecuadorian democracy. 
Moncayo convoked another meeting for noon on April 6, to be 
followed by another march on Congress.  Mid-morning on April 
6, approximately 4,000 students marched peacefully past the 
Embassy toward Congress, according to media estimates, later 
growing to 6,000 before being dispersed by police.  Congress 
held its session and began to debate the government's court 
reform proposal.  The PSC and Socialists reportedly offered 
to support the bill, but the ID held out for other options. 
 
Indigenous Will Join Protests 
----------------------------- 
 
4.  (U) Indigenous leader Luis Macas declared on April 6 that 
the main indigenous organization (CONAIE) will mobilize to 
support anti-government protests, demanding that President 
Gutierrez leave office, vacate the Supreme Court, annul the 
Manta FOL agreement and Plan Colombia, and reject pending 
economic reforms and an FTA with the U.S.  The timing of the 
indigenous mobilization was unclear.  On April 5, several 
Pachakutik party leaders accompanied the march on Congress, 
but CONAIE's broader membership was not in evidence. 
 
Guayaquil Leaders More Restrained 
--------------------------------- 
 
5.  (U) Guayaquil leaders and coastal PSC mayors met on April 
5 and declared an assembly for April 11, when they will 
determine next steps.  Their focus is reportedly on the local 
issues that featured in their "Marcha Blanca" protest in 
December, in contrast with their counterparts in Quito. 
Mayor Nebot publicly hedged on the date of any mobilization 
in Guayaquil, saying only that he thought it should happen in 
April, but not without sufficient preparation.  In a nod to 
local business interests, Nebot also said any protest should 
seek only to bring people into the streets, but not paralyze 
cities. 
 
Embassy Supporting Dialogue, Stability 
--------------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) The Ambassador met with a key indigenous leader, 
Cotacachi mayor Auki Tituana while visiting Imbabura province 
on April 6.  Tituana told her that Bucaram's return was the 
"last straw" for the indigenous movement, which resented 
Gutierrez' attempts to divide and marginalize it.  Gutierrez 
had to go, he said, and should be replaced by the Vice 
President Palacios.  The Ambassador emphasized the 
development costs of political instability and urged Tituana 
to make another attempt at dialogue with the government.  She 
later told Imbabura press that peaceful dialogue is necessary 
to strengthen democratic institutions and that the USG 
continues to support Ecuadorian democracy and the 
democratically-elected government.  The Ambassador's op-ed 
piece promoting dialogue and judicial strengthening will 
appear in the paper of record on April 7. 
 
7.  (C) The Ambassador spoke with the Chief of National 
Police Jorge Poveda to urge that the police behave 
responsibly in handling street protests, which they did. 
Poveda assured that the police would respect right of protest 
and even try to encourage dialogue.  We are conveying the 
same message to the military.  The DCM met with Minister of 
Government Oscar Ayerve on April 5 to deliver the same 
message, which was well received.  The political and economic 
sections and ConGen Guayaquil are reaching out to political 
leaders across the spectrum to do the same. 
 
8.  (C) Ayerve told the DCM that dialogue with the opposition 
continued, "under the table," but worried that the opposition 
no longer sought resolution of the court issue.  Instead, 
they seek to destabilize the government by exploiting popular 
discontent with the return of controversial former president 
Bucaram.  On April 6, Ayerve publicly announced that further 
dialogue had nearly achieved consensus on a legal reform to 
vacate the Supreme Court.  He welcomed the offer of the 
Episcopal Conference of Bishops to mediate.  The President 
had cancelled his planned trip to Pope John Paul II's funeral 
to achieve this resolution. 
 
9.  (C) PRIAN congressional leader Sylka Sanchez told 
PolChief that the PRIAN's working alliance with the 
government was definitively over.  The PRIAN felt tricked by 
the government for permitting ex-president Bucaram to return. 
 PRIAN leader Alvaro Noboa had refused dialogue with Bucaram 
since his return.  The PRIAN continues to oppose changing the 
Supreme Court through a congressional resolution, which would 
be unconstitutional, she said.  However, the PRIAN would not 
support street protests and had no plans to impeach President 
Gutierrez, according to Sanchez. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
10.  (C) Until now, street protests have mainly featured 
students, judicial and municipal workers, and local leaders 
of the Democratic Left (ID) and Pachakutik political parties. 
 Quito Mayor Moncayo is leading the attack, clearly seeking 
to capitalize on outrage over Bucaram's return here in the 
highlands.  A former military leader himself, he crossed a 
line of restraint by publicly calling on the military to side 
with protesters.  Though ostensibly to pressure Congress to 
action to resolve the court issue, the protesters are also 
calling for Gutierrez' resignation.  There are no signs that 
Gutierrez will comply, nor of shifts in the loyalty of the 
military, the "traditional" arbiter of popular coup attempts 
here.  New involvement by the indigenous movement could 
strengthen the opposition strike next week (the new CONAIE 
leadership is untested in this respect). 
 
11.  (C) Though time is running out, the government could 
still placate the forces gathering before the strike on April 
12.  Despite opposition efforts to convey a common front with 
Guayaquil and other regions, the likely effectiveness of an 
indefinite strike is unclear.  In the interim, the GOE would 
be wise to move to resolve the impasse over the court in 
Congress and heed Guayaquil's local demands to prevent a 
truly debilitating national strike.  We continue to urge 
dialogue and restraint on all sides, in support of democratic 
stability. 
KENNEY