US embassy cable - 05BEIRUT1123

C O N F I D E N T I A L  BEIRUT 001123 
 
 
PARIS FOR ZEYA, LONDON FOR GOLDRICH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2015 
TAGS: KISL, LE, PGOV 
SUBJECT: MGLE01: AMAL SUCCESSION: BERRI'S BITTER, FRUITLESS 
LEGACY 
 
REF: 04 BEIRUT 4941 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Christopher W. Murray.  Reason: Sectio 
n 1.4(d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary.  Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, 67 
years old, has not groomed a credible successor to lead his 
Amal Movement.  Like almost every other Lebanese party, he 
has kept the line of succession murky to avoid threats to his 
own leadership.  Berri expelled a popular Amal leader whom he 
had once considered as a successor.  For now, a party 
official without a popular base is the nominal successor. 
Our Shia contacts consider Berri's son, Abdallah, to be the 
most likely successor-designate, but he has little 
credibility within the party or Shia community.  End summary. 
 
A party with shrinking influence 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri has tightened 
security around his home in Ayn el-Tinneh.  Even his close 
advisers are searched upon entering, according to a Shia 
journalist.  Despite the current instability and Berri's age, 
he has not prepared Amal in case he passes from the scene. 
The absence of a clear successor is a common theme in 
Lebanese politics, as current leaders seek to avoid any 
internal challenges.  For example, Walid Jumblatt appointed a 
Shia as Vice President of his Progressive Socialist Party, 
knowing that a Shia could never lead the Druze community. 
However, given that Amal is structured around the personality 
of Nabih Berri, a succession battle could cripple a party 
already beset with declining popularity and rampant 
corruption (reftel). 
 
A successor without profile 
--------------------------- 
 
3.  (C)  Berri a few years ago appeared to be grooming a 
popular and dynamic young leader, MP Mohammad Baydun of Tyre, 
to assume the reins of Amal.  The two men eventually clashed 
and Berri expelled Baydun from the party.  Berri then pushed 
Politburo Vice President Nassib Ahdad through the ranks to be 
his presumed successor.  Berri selected Ahdad because he does 
not have a strong personality and does not enjoy a popular 
base, according to Shia journalist Abbas Sabbagh who closely 
follows Shia affairs.  Sabbagh described Ahdad as a young 
doctor who allegedly falsified his medical diploma from 
Russia.  Berri can easily remove Ahdad any time he wants, 
according to Sabbagh.  No one would protest his demise. 
 
A son in his father's shadow 
---------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Sabbagh's sources tell him that Berri is trying to 
groom his son, Abdallah, to assume the successor role. 
However, Abdallah is widely disliked in the party because he 
did not rise up through the ranks on his own merit like his 
father.  His bodyguards have a reputation for stealing from 
the houses Abdallah that visits, according to Sabbagh.  Berri 
gave Abdallah the command of Amal military operations in 
southern Lebanon in 1996, but Hizballah told Syrian 
intelligence that Abdallah was collaborating with Israel, 
thus forcing Berri to revoke his command. 
 
5.  (C)  Qassim Daoud, a Tyre businessman with ties to Amal, 
told econoff that Abdallah is not respected in the party. 
Abdallah seems more interested in making money and 
undertaking business ventures rather than party operations. 
Abdallah is like his father in one way:  a widespread 
reputation for corruption.  Senior Amal officials feel they 
must deal with him, but do not believe he has the capability 
to run Amal and do not like him personally, according to 
Daoud.  Daoud pointed out, however, that Abdallah has one key 
advantage:  he is the gateway through which GOL development 
aid to the south must pass. 
 
6.  (C)  Abdallah is not well-liked within the Berri family 
either.  Berri, fed up with the stealing, once told his son 
to go to the Unites States and not come back, according to 
Sabbagh.  Berri's wife, Randa, does not like Abdallah because 
he is a son by a prior marriage.  She prefers her teenage 
son, Basil, according to an AUB professor with ties to the 
family.  Berri's other son, Mustafa, lives in the United 
States and is a non-factor, according to Sabbagh. 
 
7.  (C)  Some of our contacts believe Amal would fall apart 
once Berri dies.  He has so centralized command of the party 
that it will fall apart without him, they argue.  Daoud, who 
is more closely linked to Amal, believes that there would be 
succession contest, but in the end the Amal Politburo would 
select a new, but diminished, leader. 
 
 
MURRAY