US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU1037

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001037 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, NP, Government of Nepal (GON) 
SUBJECT: KOIRALA CAMP CLAIMS CONSPIRACY IN DISSOLUTION OF 
PARLIAMENT 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 1008 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI.  REASON:  1.5 (B,D). 
 
-------- 
SUMMARY 
--------- 
 
1.  (C)  Supporters of Nepali Congress Party President and 
former Prime Minister G.P. Koirala are, predictably enough, 
branding Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's unexpected 
decision to dissolve Parliament (Reftels) a threat to 
democracy.  The Koirala camp obviously miscalculated the PM's 
likely response to the President's challenge and is now 
scrambling for recovery.  End summary. 
 
-------------------------------- 
THE SPIN FROM THE KOIRALA CAMP 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  Supporters of Nepali Congress Party President and 
former Prime Minister G.P. Koirala are branding Prime 
Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's move to dissolve Parliament and 
call new elections (Reftels) a threat to democracy, and are 
hinting darkly at behind-the-scenes Palace manipulation of 
events.  The Koirala camp, which obviously miscalculated 
Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's probable response to 
Koirala's challenge to his authority, are now scrambling to 
give the imbroglio an appropriate spin.  Koirala himself told 
the Australian Ambassador May 24 that Deuba's move can only 
be interpreted as a "conspiracy," and charged that the PM is 
a "stooge" of the Army and the Palace.  Koirala claimed that 
Deuba has been threatening the Nepali Congress MPs, saying 
that he will form his own party, Koirala continued.  He asked 
the Ambassador to warn his diplomatic colleagues that Deuba 
will try to steal the elections, if they are held. 
 
3.  (C)  Former Foreign Minister and Party Central Working 
Committee (CWC) Member Chakra Prasad Bastola sounded similar 
themes, if on a somewhat softer note.  The split between 
Deuba and Koirala was really only a trivial, technical matter 
within the party, Bastola said, and should never have been 
allowed to progress to the current state of rupture.  All the 
Nepali Congress MPs were completely "taken aback" by Deuba's 
decision to dissolve Parliament.  (Party General Secretary 
Sushil Koirala told us the same thing, describing the 
membership as "utterly shocked.")  Security in the country 
has deteriorated to such a level that elections cannot be 
held within six months, Bastola predicted.  Since there is no 
constitutional provision for such a contingency, "Deuba has 
facilitated direct action by the King" to fill the void. 
(Note:  According to Bastola's interpretation, the King could 
take such action under Clause 127 of the Constitution, which 
authorizes him to "issue necessary orders" to resolve "any 
difficulty" that might arise "in connection with the 
implementation of this Constitution."  End note.)  When asked 
what the King might possibly gain from such a move, Bastola 
said he has wondered that himself and used to scoff at 
others' dark hints about the Palace. Now, he said, he fears 
the conspiracy theorists may turn out to be right. 
 
------------------------------ 
SPEAKER:  SORROWED BY SPLIT 
------------------------------ 
 
4.  (C) Speaker of the House Taranath Ranabhat sounded a 
sadder, less combative note.  Clearly troubled by the 
"serious conflict" within the Nepali Congress, he retains 
some hope that party patriarch K.P. Bhattarai will be able to 
heal the rift.  None of the party's founding 
fathers--including Koirala--should want it to be split.  The 
confrontation arose because of mistakes on both sides, he 
charged.  Their actions are "just not helpful to the 
(democratic) system, the people, or the integrity of the 
nation."  Because of the irresponsibility of both leaders, 
the nation may face a constitutional crisis if elections are 
not held in six months.  Their actions were motivated solely 
by personal interests, he charged, inappropriate at any time 
but particularly at such a time of crisis.   If Deuba had 
faced a vote of no confidence and lost, it would have been "a 
negative message for just one person."  Instead, by 
dissolving Parliament and calling elections that may never be 
held, Ranabhat said, the PM had done something "negative for 
the whole country."  But he reserved his harshest criticism 
for Koirala, holding him responsible for introducing "every 
bad thing" into the corrupted political culture.  The folly 
and selfishness of these leaders could obviate all the past 
sacrifices of freedom fighters like himself--and, ironically, 
Koirala and Deuba themselves.  "What nonsense,"  he lamented, 
wiping away tears. 
--------- 
COMMENT 
--------- 
 
5.  (C)  After their first miscalculations, the Koirala 
faction is obviously spinning as fast as it can to show that 
Deuba's call for elections--entirely within Constitutional 
guidelines--is only a step in some nefarious, ill-defined 
plot.  The comments of the Speaker, on the other hand, seemed 
refreshingly free of spin and an eloquent, if pained, 
analysis of the political culture.  The language in the 
Constitutional clause cited by Bastola is so vague as to 
have, in our view, no more particular relevance to the 
current situation than to any other.  As reported reftel, the 
King continues to reiterate to us his support for the 
Constitution and the democratic system.  We have seen no 
signs to the contrary. 
MALINOWSKI