US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1644

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001644 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Foreign Policy, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. AND CROSS-STRAIT 
RELATIONS, POPE JOHN PAUL II 
 
 
1. Summary:  Coverage of the Taipei dailies April 6 
centered on the cross-Strait relations and local 
politics.  All the major Chinese-language Taipei 
dailies reported on their front pages that President 
Chen Shui-bian decided in a meeting Tuesday that the 
government will utilize laws to deal with any private 
agreement reached with China without proper 
authorization from the Taiwan government.  Taiwan's 
largest daily, the pro-independence "Liberty Times" ran 
a banner headline on its front page that read: 
"Effective management will be reinforced with regard to 
trade across the Taiwan Strait.  Front-page headline of 
the centrist "China Times" also said "The Presidential 
Office, the Executive Yuan and DPP put on the brake 
with regard to mainland China heat."  An editorial of 
the "Liberty Times" continued to slash KMT Vice 
Chairman P.K. Chiang's recent visit to China, citing a 
U.S. official's comment on the inappropriate timing of 
Chiang's visit in order to show that the KMT has 
misinterpreted the United States' cross-Strait policy. 
 
2. The death of Pope John Paul II also triggered 
speculation in Taiwan about whether the Vatican will 
switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.  A 
limited-circulation, conservative English-language 
"China Post" editorial noted that the prospect of any 
renewed Beijing-Vatican talks deserves Taiwan's close 
attention.  End summary. 
 
1. U.S. and Cross-Strait Relations 
 
"KMT's Misjudgment of the Current Situation Brings Harm 
to the Nation and Taiwan's People" 
 
The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 
800,000] editorialized (4/6): 
 
". Second comes the KMT's misinterpretation of the 
United States' cross-Strait policy.  On the surface, 
the framework of Washington's current cross-Strait 
policy is indeed [the bottom line] that `no use of 
force [on Beijing's side] and no independence [on 
Taiwan's side].'  Regarding the move to prevent Beijing 
from using force against Taiwan, the inclusion of the 
Taiwan areas in the U.S.-Japan defense treaty has fully 
indicated the United States' determination to prevent 
China from taking any action rashly.  As for the 
attempt to prevent Taiwan from moving toward 
independence, the United States is playing a more pro- 
active card by using arms sales and diplomatic pressure 
to force the rulers in Taiwan to yield.  All these 
developments made the KMT think that as long as it 
makes great concessions with regard to cross-Strait 
relations or the `one China' principle, it could look 
after the U.S. interests and in the meantime meet 
Washington's unspoken intentions.  But in reality, this 
is not the substance of U.S. cross-Strait policy at 
all.  In terms of Washington's short-term and long-term 
strategic interests, the United States' attitude toward 
Taiwan is to prevent it from moving toward independence 
or unification.  [The purpose of] preventing Taiwan 
from moving toward independence is to secure regional 
stability and peace at the current stage; Washington 
does not want to be dragged into a war across the 
Taiwan Strait, at least not now.  Preventing Taiwan 
from moving toward unification, on the other hand, is 
due to the United States' long-term strategic 
deployment and [the objective] to safeguard the United 
States' defense at the West Pacific.  Once Taiwan moves 
toward unification [with China], the breach created in 
the West Pacific might likely lead to the full collapse 
of Washington and Tokyo's sea dominance in the West 
Pacific.  The KMT's chess move to `move westbound' is a 
result of a gross error in interpreting the U.S. 
policy.  The comment by a U.S. official yesterday which 
said the timing of P.K. Chiang's visit to China was 
`inappropriate' has explained it all. ." 
 
2. Pope John Paul II 
 
"New Pope May Favor PRC Ties at Expense of Taipei" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" [circulation: 30,000] said in an editorial 
(4/6): 
 
"Whoever succeeds the recently deceased Pope John Paul 
II as the next leader of the Catholic Church is likely 
to renew talks with Beijing to establish diplomatic 
relations as one of his priorities.  Should renewed 
talks lead to an exchange of recognition between the 
two sides, it would be a serious political blow to 
Taiwan, as the Vatican is the island's sole diplomatic 
ally in Europe. . 
 
"The Holy See has essentially suspended its efforts 
seeking better Beijing relations in the last two years 
or so due largely to the poor health of the late Pope. 
Now a new pontiff, likely to be elected by the College 
of Cardinals within the next two weeks, may respond to 
Beijing's recent call and resume talks. 
 
"But it might not be that easy for the two governments 
to resolve those basic differences unless they are able 
to work out resolutions or are willing to make mutual 
concessions.  Still, the prospect of any renewed 
Beijing-Vatican talks deserves close attention by 
Taipei.  It may even behoove it to carry out some 
proactive diplomacy." 
 
KEEGAN