US embassy cable - 05WELLINGTON284

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000284 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/ANP 
NSC FOR JONES, CHA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NZ 
SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND ELECTION DATE 2005: NOT NOW, I'M 
WATCHING THE RUGBY 
 
REF: WELLINGTON 70 
 
Classified By: ACTING DCM KATHERINE HADDA, FOR REASONS 1.4(B,D) 
 
 1.  (U) Summary: New Zealand's Labour Government is nearing 
the end of its three-year term and speculation is rife among 
the media and policymakers over the yet-to-be-determined 
election date. Many pundits believe Labour will call 
elections early, both in order to throw off the opposition's 
ability to mount an effective campaign and to guard against 
possible negative voter reaction if there is an economic 
downturn or other unforeseen controversy.  Prime Minister 
Clark has indicated that the Party will go "full term," but 
even this could include any date between the Government's 
three-year anniversary in late July and September 24, the 
last Saturday before the September 27 cut-off date mandated 
under NZ's election law (reftel). Factors such as the winter 
rugby schedule, the release of the budget and the Cabinet's 
international political commitments will help determine the 
date. Regardless of the specifics, both Labour and the 
opposition are trying to use the public's increasing focus on 
election timing to highlight their parties' agendas. End 
summary. 
 
Regulations 
----------- 
 
2. (U) Under NZ's electoral system, the Prime Minister 
decides on which date an election will be held.  The 
Governor-General then dissolves Parliament by proclamation, 
and issues a second proclamation summoning Parliament to meet 
again several weeks after the election, although they are not 
bound to actually meet on that date.  On what is known as 
Writ Day the Governor-General tells the Chief Electoral 
Officer to hold a general election, and polling is scheduled 
to occur on a Saturday, 20-27 days after nomination day. 
The day on which individual constituency candidate and party 
list nominations close is declared Nomination Day.  In 2002, 
PM Clark announced the election on June 11, writ day was June 
25, July 2 was nomination day and the election was held on 
July 27, 2002. 
 
Why Wait? Timing Is Everything 
------------------------------ 
 
3. (C) Incumbent politicians have historically been penalized 
for calling an early or snap election, and indications are 
that PM Clark wishes to go "full-term," or between July and 
September.  Ultimately, the decision on timing is Clark's 
alone, and according to members of her staff she has not yet 
chosen a date. Cabinet Ministers Marian Hobbs and Chris 
Carter independently expressed to us their doubts over an 
early election, questioning how Labour could justify the 
decision to voters in the absence of any outside influence. 
They seem to believe such justification is needed in order to 
avoid voter perception that the Government is manipulating 
the process by holding elections when Labour's star is at its 
highest.  Labour currently maintains a comfortable ten point 
polling lead over the Opposition National Party, and our 
contacts argue that there are no indications that their 
party's fortunes will change within the next six months.  In 
addition, the Government's budget will be released on May 
19th and its advertising campaign regarding its milestone 
"Working For Families" social welfare package is scheduled to 
peak in August.  A late (Antipodean) winter election would 
assure Labour that publicity surrounding these financial 
packages impacts the maximum number of voters. 
 
4. (C) The PM's Chief Press Spokesman, Mike Munro, also 
downplayed to us the likelihood of an early election.  "It 
will be some time between July and September, so what's the 
fuss all about?" he said.  Munro added that he did not really 
blame the media for hyping the issue, as the election is 
their biggest story of the year. 
 
5. (U)  Some have seen Labour's  March release of its list of 
party candidates as a sign of an early election, but Labour 
delegates at the Party Congress insisted to us that the 
timing was designed to prevent candidates from focusing on 
their own possible list ranking instead of campaigning for 
the overall party vote.  (Note: The higher the candidate's 
name is on the list, the more likely her or she is to gain a 
seat in Parliament. (reftel))  A number of political parties 
in New Zealand have yet to finalize their Party Lists for the 
upcoming election.  National expects to complete its list in 
June, as do the Greens. 
 
6.  (C) National Party leader Don Brash has publicly cited 
the early election buzz as proof that the Government is 
panicky over a worsening economic situation. (Brash, National 
Foreign Affairs Spokesman Lockwood Smith, and Welfare 
Spokesman Judith Collins have in the past all told us that it 
will be much harder for National to gain votes if the economy 
is doing well.  It's not surprising, therefore, that they 
will use any chance they can to highlight any weakness in the 
system.)  Brash has also used the media's interest in the 
election date to emphasize his party's readiness, publicizing 
National's strong party membership numbers, and point out 
that candidates have been selected in all 62 general 
electorates.  On Party policy, Brash noted that National is 
waiting to "see the shape of the Labour Government's Budget 
on May 19," but indicated that most policy development has 
been completed though not yet revealed. 
 
Can't Vote Now- The Footy's On 
------------------------------ 
 
6. (U) While often referred to jokingly by policymakers, with 
NZ elections held on Saturdays the winter rugby season is a 
major determinant in scheduling an election.  The British 
Lions rugby team will be playing heavily attended matches in 
NZ each weekend in June and early July.  These games are not 
only a distraction from any political campaigning, but 
involve the movement of thousands of voters from their voting 
districts.  August is similarly "full of footy" with 
Tri-Nations matches with Australia and South Africa serving 
as a source of great nationalism, and distracting from 
election year campaigning. 
 
7.  (C) Beyond football, PM Clark's foreign commitments may 
disrupt the September options.  A United Nations Head of 
State or Government meeting in New York September 13 ) 16 is 
a powerful draw for Clark, especially as she has in the past 
expressed a desire to follow her NZ career with a 
high-profile UN position. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7. (C) While speculation is seen by some as a sport to while 
away the hours, Labour is approaching this election with 
great gravity, as noted in this part weekend's Labour Party 
Congress in Wellington.  Complacency was derided by the PM, 
along with its "twin sister ) arrogance."  No Labour party 
has won a third term since the First Labour Government 
(1935-1949,) and economic indicators are increasingly 
pointing to a slowdown at the end of 2005.  Finance Minister 
Michael Cullen, in talks at the Party Congress, repeatedly 
emphasized the impact an economic slowdown would have on 
Labour's ability to implement social policy.  Labour is not 
taking anything for granted, and is weighing a number of 
factors in choosing a date that will optimize its polling 
advantage without allowing the Opposition time to mount a 
sustained attack.  Whatever the date, media focus on this 
issue is a bellwether for increased voter awareness of 
election issues. 
Burnett