US embassy cable - 05MANAMA501

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 000501 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2015 
TAGS: KDEM, PGOV, BA 
SUBJECT: GOB DECIDES NOT TO PUNISH OPPOSITION SOCIETY 
 
REF: MANAMA 471 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
. 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (SBU) The GOB decided April 5 not to take legal action 
against leading Shi'a opposition political society Al Wifaq 
for its role in organizing a March 25 demonstration that was 
banned by the government.  Minister of Social Affairs Dr. 
Fatima Al Belooshi met with Al Wifaq's leadership and 
reiterated that they should abide by the law (i.e., no more 
unauthorized demonstrations), but did not order a temporary 
closure of the society as some had expected.  The latest 
confrontation between the GOB and the opposition shows that 
the two sides, while maneuvering for tactical advantage, 
recognize the value of pulling back from more serious 
confrontation. 
 
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Peaceful demonstration organized without GOB permission 
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2.  (SBU) On March 25 leading Shi'a opposition political 
society Al Wifaq defied the Ministry of Interior's decision 
to refuse to permit a demonstration and led several thousand 
people in a rally calling for constitutional reforms.   The 
GOB did not prevent the demonstration, but subsequently 
warned that it might take legal action against Al Wifaq, and 
many predicted that the society would be closed for 45 days. 
On March 28, an Al Wifaq representative announced that the 
society removed all of its documents from its premises as a 
precautionary measure. 
 
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GOB decides not to punish Al Wifaq 
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3.  (C) Minister of Social Affairs Dr. Fatima Al Belooshi met 
with four of Al Wifaq's leaders April 5 to discuss the 
society's role in organizing the demonstration.  According to 
Embassy contacts, the tone of the meeting was amicable and 
she told them that no action would be taken against Al Wifaq. 
 She stated, however, that the society should keep a lower 
profile in the coming months and she reiterated to them that 
they should abide by the law and respect government 
decisions. 
 
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Parliament condemns illegal demonstration 
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4.  (SBU) On March 28, the Shura Council issued a statement 
criticizing Al Wifaq for violating the law.  On March 29, the 
Council of Representatives (COR) also issued a statement 
condemning Al Wifaq.  The COR statement was an initiative of 
seven deputies from the Al Asala (Salafi), Al Minbar (Muslim 
Brotherhood), and independent (pro-government) blocs. 
Numerous Shi'a representatives spoke passionately against the 
statement, but they were outnumbered by those who supported 
it. 
 
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Shi'a clerics call for moderation 
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5.  (SBU) In his April 1 Friday prayer sermon, leading Shi'a 
cleric Sheikh Issa Qassem said that both the GOB and the 
opposition should refrain from actions that would escalate 
the tension between them.  He noted that he did not call for 
participation in the rally because he wanted to maintain 
bridges between the government and the people.  He added that 
he did not think the ban on the demonstration was fair and 
warned that closing Al Wifaq would only deepen the political 
crisis in the country.  Al Wifaq President and prominent 
cleric Sheikh Ali Salman confirmed in his Friday prayer 
sermon that the opposition was fully committed to promoting 
goals that everyone shares including stability, security, and 
economic prosperity. 
 
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Iran -- not Al Wifaq -- may be the GOB's concern 
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6.  (C) NDI representative Fawzi Guleid told PolOff that 
several MPs met with the Minister of Interior recently to 
express their concern about the GOB's response to the Al 
Wifaq rally.  The minister replied that, although it may have 
appeared that the government was trying to restrain Al Wifaq, 
it was really targeting a small portion of the protesters 
whose main alliance is with Iran.  Minister of State for 
Foreign Affairs Mohammed Abdul Ghaffar, in a conversation 
with the Ambassador, also linked the decision to deny a 
permit for the demonstration to continuing concerns about 
Iranian links to Shi'a oppositionists in Bahrain. 
 
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Comment 
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7.  (C) We can expect to see more maneuvering between the 
Shi'a oppositionists and the government in the coming months, 
and indeed until the parliamentary elections in 2006.  The 
Shi'a oppositionists, prodded by more extreme elements in the 
ranks, will continue to challenge the government.  The 
government, influenced by traditional concerns about Shi'a 
activism and political instability, will push back.  The 
conciliatory resolution of this case suggests that, for now, 
the leadership on both sides recognizes the advantage of 
pulling back from a more serious confrontation. 
MONROE