US embassy cable - 05KINSHASA567

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000567 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINS, PREL, CG 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION FIGURE TSHISEKEDI CONTINUES TRYING TO 
KILL THE TRANSITION 
 
Classified By: Poloff Edward Bestic for Reasons 1.4 B and D 
 
1. (U) SUMMARY:  Prominent opposition figure Etienne 
Tshisekedi declared in an April 2 speech that the 
 
SIPDIS 
transitional government's mandate expires June 30, claiming 
that the constitutional provision that allows for two 
six-month extensions is null and void because "the 
people...have systematically rejected it."  After June 30, 
Tshisekedi explained, the political order installed by the 
 
SIPDIS 
National Sovereign Conference of the early 1990s will take 
over.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (U) Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) party 
leader Etienne Tshisekedi gave a speech April 2 at the 
opening of an extraordinary session of the party's "national 
committee."  His main points were (unofficial translation): 
 
--the transitional government's mandate expires June 30; 
"the people" are the ultimate authority, and reject Article 
196 of the constitution (which allows two six-month 
extensions) 
 
--those in power have intentionally delayed adopting a new 
constitution, and lack the will to accelerate restructuring 
of the military, police and security services 
 
--the National Sovereign Conference of the early 1990s 
established a new political order, which was considered 
legitimate by all Congolese and the international community 
 
--Laurent Kabila's seizure of power in 1997 constituted a 
coup d'etat against this established order;  his "repressive 
regime" brought on a murderous war and the death of over 3 
million defenseless citizens 
 
--"The parenthesis opened on May 17, 1997 will therefore 
close on June 30 at midnight and the political order 
installed by the National Sovereign Conference will resume 
functioning."  (Comment:  He reminded the audience that he 
was Prime Minister under this system.  End Comment.) 
 
 
UDPS Says Damn the Risk, Full Speed Ahead 
----------------------------------------- 
3. (C) UDPS secretary-general Remy Masamba told poloff April 
4 Tshisekedi's goal is to force transitional government 
leaders to open a "dialogue" and force them to share power 
with him.  (Comment:  It is unlikely Tshisekedi envisions 
himself joining the government as anything less than 
president or prime minister.  End Comment.)  When asked why 
Tshisekedi chose to focus on June 30, 2005, inflaming public 
 
SIPDIS 
opinion in order to gain a position in government now, rather 
than focus on preparing for elections in the near future, 
Masamba responded that the UDPS leader was old, and 
speculated that Tshisekedi perhaps felt he might not be 
around when elections took place.  Masamba also noted that 
the UDPS had no confidence whatsoever in the justice system, 
that the elections might be rigged against them, and that if 
they were in power, they would be able to compete more 
effectively with those already in the transitional 
government.  Masamba acknowledged the risk that Tshisekedi's 
message could potentially cause widespread civil unrest and 
ultimately spin out of control, and argued gently that 
because Tshisekedi is old (70 ), tired, and "would not last 
two years" in a demanding job, bringing him on board now 
would be the lesser of two evils.  (Comment:  Masamba did not 
mention it, but most observers believe the UDPS will collapse 
when Tshisekedi dies--giving current members powerful 
incentive to get what they can out of the man while he is 
still alive.  End Comment.) 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
4. (C) Far from moderating his tone, Tshisekedi is amplifying 
it and inciting the population to overthrow the transitional 
government.  Although his speech was peppered with references 
to "democracy," "republican values," and "rule of law," the 
UDPS as a party is far from democratic, and its stance is 
anti-constitutional and violates the political accord signed 
by the UDPS itself.  Although Tshisekedi said the UDPS' 
struggle would remain non-violent, and he paid homage to the 
millions of Congolese dead from the war, in reality he 
appears to have few qualms about inciting as many more 
millions as possible to risk their lives to overthrow the 
current government and bring him to power.  Interestingly, 
neither Tshisekedi in his speech nor Masamba in private made 
any mention of actually preparing for elections--whether it 
be the UDPS running a campaign or the nebulous, post-June 30 
government conducting them.  END COMMENT. 
MEECE