US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN593

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 YEREVAN 000593 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/DAS KENNEDY AND EUR/RPM 
DEFENSE FOR DASD MACDOUGALL 
USNATO FOR UNDERWOOD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PARM, MARR, AM 
SUBJECT: GENERAL WALD'S MARCH 30-31 VISIT TO ARMENIA 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John M. Evans for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (C) In meetings with President Kocharian, MOD Sargsian 
and CHOD Harutiunyan, EUCOM's General Charles Wald 
acknowledged steps Armenia had taken in the past year to open 
the way for a closer defense relationship with the U.S. 
General Wald assured President Kocharian that peace and 
stability in the Caucasus was a top priority within EUCOM. 
He expressed concern over the recent increase in cease-fire 
violations along the line of contact with Azerbaijan and 
pressed all of his interlocutors to find political 
resolution; a return to armed conflict would be devastating 
for both sides and would give new advantage to neither.  He 
pressed Kocharian to demonstrate serious political leadership 
on this issue.  Kocharian blamed Azerbaijan for the 
cease-fire violations and warned that an increase in 
bellicose rhetoric from Azerbaijan's leadership suggested 
that they were preparing their population for war.  He showed 
keen interest in developments in Iraq and Afghanistan and 
appreciated General Wald's insights.  End Summary. 
 
General Wald's Warm Welcome in Armenia 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) On March 30-31, EUCOM Deputy Commander General 
Charles Wald visited Armenia and met with President Robert 
Kocharian, Defense Minister Serzh Sargsian and Chief of 
General Staff (and First Deputy Minister of Defense) Mikhael 
Harutiunyan.  With General Wald from EUCOM were Ambassador 
Lloyd Hand and Major General Scott Gration, although only a 
smaller group attended the meeting with President Kocharian. 
Despite other high-profile visitors to Yerevan on the same 
day, General Wald's visit generated significant and generally 
positive press coverage.  General Wald's last visit to 
Armenia was in April of 2004. 
 
"No More Obstacles to Greater Military Cooperation" 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
3.  (C) In all of his meetings, General Wald acknowledged the 
significant steps Armenia had taken in the past year to open 
the way for a more productive defense relationship with the 
U.S. and NATO.  General Wald confirmed that Armenia 
eliminated all of the obstacles to greater military 
cooperation, including agreeing to a Defense Assessment, 
signing and ratifying an Article 98 Agreement, a NATO Status 
of Forces Agreement, and an Acquisition and Cross-Servicing 
Agreement.  Wald noted with satisfaction that Armenia now has 
a contingent in Iraq and intends to create a peacekeeping 
brigade and has offered to host the EUCOM disaster-response 
exercise, Rescuer, in 2006.  The progress in the relationship 
has been dramatic, Wald said, and the U.S. has taken notice. 
 
Afghanistan 
----------- 
 
4.  (C)  President Kocharian asked about the situation in 
Afghanistan and Iraq.  Kocharian remarked that he had heard 
from his Central Asian colleagues that the production of 
drugs in Afghanistan had sharply increased and he recalled 
that about half of the Soviet soldiers returning from 
Afghanistan suffered from drug addictions.  General Wald 
confirmed that drug production had increased in Afghanistan, 
but that the problem would be addressed, adding that NATO and 
UK military forces had joined forces to combat the drug 
problem.  Wald also addressed the growing HIV/AIDS problem in 
Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus and the toll that this pandemic 
may take on these societies. 
 
Iraq and the Middle East 
------------------------ 
 
5.  (C)  On the subject of Iraq, General Wald said he sees 
the glass as half-full rather than half-empty.  Stability has 
been elusive, but progress is being registered.  Wald 
recalled the original reasons for the conflict, noting that 
Saddam had flouted 17 U.N. resolutions.  The day of the Iraqi 
elections, which turned out even better than expected, was a 
great one for Iraq.  Although the insurgency was still 
strong, al-Zarqawi would eventually be caught, and the supply 
of suicide bombers is not infinite.  General Wald thanked 
Armenia for its contribution to the coalition in Iraq and 
expressed the hope that the Armenia would continue to provide 
such support. 
 
6.  (C)  President Kocharian noted that Iraq belongs to a 
different culture and would not be easily integrated into 
Europe or the West.  General Wald noted that the Iraqis are 
educated and capable and the idea of self-governance is 
catching on.  Kocharian added that a settlement of the 
Israeli - Palestinian issue would make a huge difference in 
the region and noted that there are large Armenian 
communities in Lebanon and Jerusalem.  General Wald agreed 
that the Israeli - Palestinian conflict was a central issue 
for the region and added that both sides must take the right 
steps so as to reach the point where they can implement the 
Roadmap. 
 
Nagorno-Karabakh -- Too Much Saber-Rattling from Baku 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
7.  (C)  Prompted by DefMin Sargsian, President Kocharian 
noted that the South Caucasus had its own unresolved 
conflict: Nagorno-Karabakh.  Kocharian claimed that the war 
rhetoric coming from Baku had reached a point where the 
Armenian side felt there was a real possibility of war.  For 
this reason, he had asked his Foreign Minister to write a 
letter to the Minsk Group, and to the Minsk Group co-chairs, 
putting forward the suggestion that something be done to make 
the Line of Contact more secure.  Kocharian said that there 
had been a tendency not to publicize violations of the 
cease-fire, so as not to damage the reputation of the South 
Caucasus, especially with the European Union; however, it was 
now necessary to make the violations public.  Having a 
"watchdog" mechanism in place could help. 
 
8.  (S)  Kocharian said Armenia thought Azerbaijani President 
Aliyev was preparing his society for the possibility of 
military action.  Armenia did not want war because it could 
disrupt positive economic development in the country. 
However, if there ever were a need to mobilize the 
population, it would be necessary to crank up the military 
preparedness rhetoric with the Armenian public.  Kocharian 
noted that both he and DefMin Sargsian were from Karabakh, 
had fought there, and knew what war meant.  General Wald said 
that all of the conflicts, from Nagorno-Karabakh to 
Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia to Kashmir and 
Israel/Palestine needed to be settled by peaceful means.  He 
had read FM Oskanian's letter to Secretary Rice and did not 
doubt that the letter would receive the attention it deserved 
in Washington.  He thought that avoiding public acrimony was 
important, and if it were true that the Azerbaijanis were 
violating the cease-fire agreement, that this was a problem. 
Wald added that great leaders must be prepared to deal with 
great problems.  He thought that perhaps the Russians and 
Americans might find a way to help stabilize the situation, 
but added the caveat that this was a matter primarily for 
Secretary Rice and Ambassador Mann. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
9.  (S)  General Wald assured President Kocharian that peace 
and stability in the Caucasus was a top priority within 
EUCOM.  He asked Kocharian to do what he could to resolve the 
situation and do demonstrate serious leadership.  For his 
part Wald resolved to tell President Aliyev in Baku that it 
would be a terrible mistake to initiate hostilities. 
Kocharian said that he was raising the issue not because 
Armenia was afraid, but because he saw a changing pattern 
that put Armenia at a big disadvantage.  He added that while 
he and DefMin Sargsian had been fighting in Karabakh, "young 
Aliyev had been spending most of his time in Moscow casinos." 
 
10.  (S)  General Wald responded that no one doubted the will 
or the ability of the Armenians to fight and guessed that 
there might be some possibility that President Aliyev did not 
fully understand what a disaster a renewed war would bring. 
He noted that war gamers at EUCOM had studied the potential 
consequences of renewed fighting, and concluded that there 
would be huge losses for both sides, but that the both sides 
would wind up about where they presently were, i.e., the 
conflict would be devastating but inconclusive. 
 
Meeting with DefMin Sargsian 
---------------------------- 
 
11.  (C)  In a separate meeting with DefMin Sargsian, General 
Wald noted the series of important steps Armenia has taken in 
order to strengthen the relationship and thanked Sargsian for 
Armenia's contribution to the coalition in Iraq.  Sargsian 
said that Armenia has nearly completed its IPAP Presentation 
Document, which would be ready by the end of April.  The only 
challenge he saw in the relationship was implementing the 
plan to expand Armenia's peacekeeping unit to a brigade using 
Foreign Military Financing (FMF) funds.  Sargsian expressed 
frustration that this program was moving slowly forward. 
General Wald explained that the U.S. bureaucracy can be tough 
to negotiate, but promised to help expedite Armenia's request 
for assistance. 
 
12.  (C)  On the subject of Nagorno-Karabakh, Sargsian said 
the threats from Baku were becoming "dramatic" and criticized 
President Aliyev's comments that Azerbaijan would never 
compromise over Nagorno-Karabakh.  He noted an increase in 
tension along the front lines.  Sargsian said that Armenia 
had no interest in restarting the conflict, blaming the 
recent cease-fire violations on Azerbaijan.  He offered that 
Azerbaijan is attempting to blackmail Armenia and the Minsk 
Group by threatening war if the peace talks don't bring a 
settlement favorable to Azerbaijan.  Despite these concerns, 
General Wald predicted that in ten years Armenia and 
Azerbaijan would be fighting against terrorism together, 
noting that the new threat environment requires new 
methodologies and new alliances. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
13.  (C)  Both Kocharian and Sargsian were pleased by General 
Wald's recognition of Armenia's steps to improve relations 
with the U.S.  Armenia is clearly concerned about the recent 
increase of tension along the Line of Contact and the 
Azerbaijani initiative has taken outside of the OSCE Minsk 
Group. 
 
14.  (U)  General Wald did not have the opportunity to clear 
this cable. 
EVANS