US embassy cable - 05AMMAN2796

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002796 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, IZ, JO 
SUBJECT: AMMAN-BASED IRAQI SUNNIS WORKING ON A NEW IRAQ 
POLITICAL MOVEMENT 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 9672 
     B. 2/25/05 MCCRENSKY-FORD E-MAIL (NOTAL) 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires David Hale for reason 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
Amman-based Efforts at Sunni Political Participation 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
1.  (C) Despite a series of false steps beginning in 2004, 
Jordan-based Iraqi billionaire Talal al-Gaaod and his family 
and associates are continuing to work on schemes for 
promoting an end to the Sunni insurgency and organizing 
future large-scale Sunni Arab political participation in 
Iraq.  Talal was a central figure behind the effort to hold a 
Sunni Arab conference in Amman in mid-November (cancelled due 
to the Fallujah attack and the related State of Emergency). 
Since November, the al-Gaoods, in tandem with other prominent 
Anbar-origin figures such as Sheik Tariq al-Abdullah and Dr. 
Jaber Awad, have established intermittent political contact 
with Prime Minister Allawi and DPM Barham Saleh. 
 
Working on a Massive Sunni Conference... 
---------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Since early February 2005 Talal has been working 
closely with Shammar tribal leader Sheikh Dari Ma,ashan al 
Fassal al Jarba from Mosul and other Sunni notables to hold a 
massive conference of up to 1,000 prominent Iraqi Sunni Arabs 
in Amman as a means for establishing a mandate for 
re-injecting Sunnis into the Iraq political process and 
defanging the insurgency (ref b).  After weekly reports to 
emboff of lengthy meetings and predictions that plans the 
conference would soon be finalized, Talal told emboff on 
March 29 that he and his allies are inclined to put aside for 
now their efforts to put together a large conference.  Talal 
explained that he and his associates have been meeting for 
weeks among themselves and visiting Iraqis, including Hatem 
and Ra'ad al-Mukhlis, representatives of the Islamic scholars 
group, ex-Ba'athis, and a large number "local notables" from 
around Iraq.  These efforts to put a conference together have 
failed because there was no consensus on the goals of a 
conferene.  Talal admitted that they cannot even agree 
decisively on the structure of the conference and the makeup 
of the organizing committee. 
 
...But Getting Nowhere 
---------------------- 
 
3.  (C) Talal said that he has come to the realization that a 
massive political conference may be unworkable and in any 
event may no longer be the best way to achieve what he and 
his allies want to accomplish.  While the original purpose of 
the conference was to elicit a green light for injection of 
Sunni Arabs into the constitution drafting-process and the 
December 2005 elections, in early March several of the 
organizers (including himself) reconceived it as a launching 
pad for a mass-based Sunni political party, complete with a 
manifesto, an organizational political structure down to the 
precinct level, and 15-20 committees responsible for 
establishing policies on issues ranging from federalism and 
the role of religion to youth, sports, and the status of 
tribal leaders.  However, Talal confessed that since this 
refocus the organizational process has become even more 
difficult, as factions among the potential participants 
compete for advantage. 
 
Crawling Towards a New Paradigm 
------------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Meanwhile, Talal commented, "the (political) train is 
leaving the station."  Other Sunni groups inside Iraq are 
already holding or announcing their own conferences, and 
others inside Iraq appear already to have achieved de facto 
acceptance of Sunni political participation by many insurgent 
elements (Talal's original objective).  Given these 
developments, Talal told us his next project will be to 
explore formation sometime next month of a Sunni coalition 
including currently active Sunni figures (Yawwar, Pachachi, 
Sharif Ali, Hatem al-Mukhlis, etc), moderate tribal, 
clerical, and business figures in touch with the al Gaaods 
and Sheikh Dari, and their friends.  Talal indicated that he 
is in touch with PM Allawi (directly and through Allawi 
associate Akram Abdel Sattar Zangenah) who (Talal said) has 
expressed interest in signing a so-called "Iraqi Nation" MOU 
noting common principles and promising to cooperate in 
achieving them.  Instead of his earlier plan for a 
1000-person meeting, Talal is now thinking of a meeting of no 
more than 25 key Sunni Arabs, including those mentioned 
above.  Such a meeting would probably be held inside Iraq. 
 
5.  (C) Talal noted that one complication he faces in putting 
this plan together is the long-standing bad personal 
relationship between Sheikh Dari and his cousin Yawwar. 
Talal said he will lobby Dari to support the plan.  The 
latest development in this ongoing saga was a March 31 
request to Talal from PM Allawi to "stand by" for a 
one-on-one meeting in Amman that never took place due to 
Talal,s departure for a five-day visit to the U.S.  Talal 
stressed that Allawi's request for a meeting was initiated by 
Allawi.  Talal told emboff before departing for the U.S. on 
April 1 that he will probably see Allawi shortly after his 
return to Jordan on April 6. 
 
6. (C) Embassy Baghdad Comment: Talal is a respected and 
dynamic individual, committed to Sunni participation in the 
political process, who has the potential to be at the core of 
a secular Sunni political movement.  Like many Sunni Arabs in 
Iraq, however, he is used to a hierarchical, one-party 
system.  It is only natural that his initial, unsuccessful 
forays into the political arena took the form of 
comprehensive conferences involving all Sunnis.  Iraq,s 
Shia, Kurds, Turkmen and Christians, in contrast, have for 
decades had a small number of competing opposition parties 
with distinct identities inside their communities and clear 
ideological differences.  To form over-arching coalitions 
within their communities, they need only bring on board 3-5 
key party leaders, not hundreds or thousands of individuals. 
Talal,s new, slimmed-down approach is more practical, and he 
is clearly learning that in a free political system, it is 
not possible to get everyone to join a single party - not 
even everyone with the same ethnic/religious background. 
Hopefully, he will follow through to build a coalition with 
those who are willing to join up, rather than worry about 
those who do not. 
HALE