US embassy cable - 05QUITO744

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000744 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, ASEC, EC 
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: STAYING THE COURSE 
 
REF: GUAYAQUIL 424 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Kristie A. Kenney.  Reason 1.4 (b&d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Former president Abdala Bucaram's 
precipitous return to Ecuador has brought government 
stability issues again to the fore.  Bucaram remains a 
government ally, but we believe the controversial decision by 
the Supreme Court President will provoke a reaction by the 
opposition aimed (again) at unseating Gutierrez.  As a first 
step, we expect the main opposition to call for a national 
strike after meeting on April 5.  To advance U.S. interests, 
we will use all available opportunities to encourage 
prospects for stability and dialogue.  End Summary. 
 
Bucaram Back; Opposition Reaction Delayed 
----------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) RefTel describes Bucaram's dramatic return to 
Ecuador and his welcome home celebration in the streets of 
Guayaquil.  Political reaction has been delayed, thus far, 
and crowded out by news of the Pope's passing.  The streets 
have been relatively calm, with no major mobilizations except 
Bucaram's raucous reception in Guayaquil.  Opposition groups 
began huddling to plot strategy only on April 4.  President 
Gutierrez has avoided comment on Bucaram's return thus far, 
except to imply that he was not involved.  The independent 
Solicitor General publicly criticized the basis for court 
chief Guillermo Castro's decision absolving Bucaram of 
pending corruption charges, which is likely to generate 
actions to challenge or remove Castro from the court.  (Note: 
 As a result, we have entered a lookout on Castro into the 
visa system as a possible flight risk and will suggest he 
refrain from a planned holiday in the U.S.  End Note.) 
 
3.  (SBU) Obviously taken by surprise by the Bucaram return, 
sierra-based opposition groups have coalesced around the 
Assembly of Quito, an ad-hoc mixture of local government 
leaders and civil society.  They will meet on April 5 to 
discuss launching a national strike.  They reportedly have 
been in contact with key mayors (including Jaime Nebot of 
Guayaquil) to give any strike national scope, and have 
invited all mayors to attend the April 5 session for the same 
reason.  The main indigenous organization, CONAIE, has called 
for an assembly of its own to discuss possible mobilization 
against an FTA and pending economic reform legislation. 
Separately, Quito Mayor Paco Moncayo and Chamber of commerce 
leader Blasco Penaherrera Solah publicly called for 
unspecified civil disobedience against the government. 
Military leaders have denied the existence of any dissension 
on political issues among the officer corps. 
 
US Interests and Action Plan 
---------------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Though himself a Gutierrez ally, Bucaram's return 
could end the government's working alliance with banana 
magnate Alvaro Noboa (PRIAN), putting the government's 
survival at risk.  Noboa's support for the government has 
never been unconditional, and preventing Bucaram's return was 
the presumed condition. 
 
5.  (C) Bucaram's return thus indirectly threatens this 
government's stability, but our core interest in promoting 
stability is not fundamentally changed.  Political stability 
(here understood as preventing the unlawful and premature 
overthrow of a democratically elected president) is necessary 
to consolidate democracy, assure continued economic progress 
and support the rule of law.  With this government newly 
vulnerable to its critics, we are carefully weighing our 
public actions for their likely effects on democratic 
stability. 
 
6.  (C) In coming days we will meet with key political 
players here and in Guayaquil (Minister of Government Ayerve, 
Presidential Secretary Polit, and leaders from the PRIAN, 
PRE, PSC, ID, civil society and indigenous groups) to 
encourage democratic behavior.  The Ambassador has several 
upcoming opportunities to reiterate US stability concerns, 
and the visit by JCS Myers on April 11 offers an opportunity 
to emphasize military respect for civilian authority in a 
democracy.  To all, we will continue to encourage 
strengthening of democratic institutions, including an 
independent and better-functioning judiciary.  In doing so, 
we hope to revive dimmed prospects for dialogue, interrupted 
by Bucaram's return.  To Bucaram, we will make clear (through 
intermediaries) our strong objections to his pro-Chavez, 
anti-U.S. discourse. 
KENNEY