US embassy cable - 05HARARE509

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000509 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. NEULING 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ZI, March 05 Elections 
SUBJECT: TAINTED ELECTION GIVES ZANU-PF 2/3 MAJORITY, 
REGIONAL BLESSING 
 
REF: (A) HARARE 502 (B) HARARE 501 (C) HARARE 492 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (U) In the wake of the March 31 elections, Zimbabwe's new 
Parliament will include 108 MPs from ZANU-PF (including 30 
appointees), 41 from the MDC, and one independent, Jonathan 
Moyo.  Despite the MDC,s claims that the results were 
rigged, the South African, SADC and AU observer missions 
have, as expected, blessed the results, casting the election 
as reflective of the "free will of the people," although not 
without caveats and internal dissension.  An initial 
assessment by local non-governmental election watchdog 
Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN), however, has been 
much more critical, highlighting myriad flaws and urging 
serious investigation of discrepancies in the vote tallies. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
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ZANU-PF 78 (plus 30), MDC 41 
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2.  (U) The final polling results released by the Zimbabwe 
Election Commission late on April 1 gave President Robert 
Mugabe's ZANU-PF 78 seats (not including the 30 seats to be 
appointed by Mugabe under the Constitution), the opposition 
MDC 41, and independent candidate Jonathan Moyo one.  The 
results indicate a net loss of 16 seats for the MDC from 
their showing in 2000, five of which had already been lost in 
tainted by-elections since 2000 and three of which were 
effectively lost when the GOZ gerrymandered three urban MDC 
constituencies out of existence before the election.  Moyo's 
seat was also at the MDC's expense.  In one of the more 
surprising results, ZANU-PF took the seat held comfortably by 
ZANU-Ndonga since independence. 
 
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South African Observer Mission Whitewash 
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3.  (U) The weekend saw the initial battery of international 
assessments of Zimbabwe's elections.  In a statement (text 
faxed to AF/S) read on April 2 by delegation leader Minister 
of Labor Membathisi Mdladlana, the South African Observer 
Mission concluded that the elections reflected "the will of 
the people."  Without discussing the pre-election 
environment, the statement described improvements since 2000 
and 2002 elections and concluded that the elections complied 
with the Zimbabwean law, which "by and large" conformed to 
SADC guidelines.  In a combative exchange with the press 
after reading the statement, Mdladlana said that the various 
complaints about the election's conduct either occurred 
outside the observation of his mission or would be for 
relevant Zimbabwean election institutions to address in the 
future. 
 
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SADC Whitewash 
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4.  (C) Echoing the South African Government's assessment, 
the SADC delegation issued a statement on April 3 that also 
concluded that the elections had expressed the will of the 
people.  The statement at least took note of numerous flaws 
in the election environment but the spokesperson of the 
observer mission asserted that they did not prevent voters 
from casting their ballots secretly and freely.  A British 
diplomat told us that the Mauritian Vice-Chair of the 
delegation had told her that he strongly disagreed with the 
mission's assessment but had to go along after conferring 
with President Berenger's office.  At the press conference, 
which had been delayed a day, the SADC spokesperson 
acknowledged MDC complaints but, echoing the South Africans, 
advised that those complaints would have to be pursued by the 
relevant Zimbabwean election institutions. 
 
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African Union Qualified Endorsement 
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5.  In a statement (faxed to AF/S) received by the Embassy 
April 4, the African Union concluded that "at the point of 
the ballot," voters could "freely choose their preferred 
candidates by casting a secret ballot."  The statement 
commended the election's non-violence and GOZ steps toward 
"creating an even playing field" but urged attention to the 
problems of voter turn-away, assisted voting, and the 
passivity of party polling agents.  Finally, it urged the ZEC 
and Electoral Supervisory Commission to investigate MDC 
allegations of serious discrepancies in the official results. 
 
 
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ZESN Highlights Flaws, Urges Further Investigation 
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6.  (U) In a statement released April 4 (e-mailed to AF/S), 
ZESN publicized a host of flaws in the election's conduct, 
including its underlying legal framework, the integrity of 
the ZEC, the electoral court's independence, the poor state 
of the voters' rolls, administration of postal voting, media 
access, and intimidation of voters, and transparency of the 
tabulation process.  ZESN asserted that discrepancies between 
the announced number of ballots cast and the number finally 
recorded (reftels) had "serious implications on the 
credibility of the electoral process" and urged the ZEC to 
investigate.  The statement did close with the observation 
that polling day was calm and peaceful and that citizens "had 
the opportunity to exercise their right to vote and were free 
to do so." 
 
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Comment 
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7.  (C) A 2/3 parliamentary majority, cowed domestic reaction 
(for now), and a regional blessing ) so far this election 
has fulfilled all of the ruling party's principal objectives. 
 Whether it will also lead to renewed international 
legitimacy, however, is much less likely. 
Dell