US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV2054

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002054 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2015 
TAGS: OREP, PREL, PGOV, IS, GOI EXTERNAL, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, U.S.-ISRAEL RELATIONS 
SUBJECT: FM SHALOM TO CODEL DREIER ON THE PALESTINIANS, 
SYRIA, IRAQ, IRAN, AND THE TRAVEL ADVISORY 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom told CODEL 
Dreier that the situation is better than 3-4 months ago 
because Mahmud Abbas is more moderate than Yasir Arafat.  He 
also opined that "something is happening" in Egypt, Jordan, 
Libya, and Lebanon, and concluded that these countries want 
to be on the side of the United States. Shalom predicted that 
Hizballah will try to paint a picture of a new civil war in 
Lebanon, but said Syria must leave regardless and must disarm 
the group.  On Iraq, he said he hopes the coalition will 
succeed so that democracy will spread to other countries in 
the region.  He warned that Iran will have the knowledge to 
build a nuclear weapon in six months, and must therefore be 
stopped.  Shalom also requested that the U.S. at least change 
the level of its travel advisory to Israel if it is not going 
to cancel it.  End summary. 
 
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Things Are Looking Up 
--------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom told CODEL Dreier on 
March 28 that he believes progress can be made with the 
Palestinians.  He opined that Mahmud Abbas is "much better 
than Arafat" because his statements are more moderate, he has 
reduced incitement on the television and radio, and he has 
stopped the firing of missiles to Israel.  He mentioned, 
however, that Abbas has not yet made a strategic decision to 
dismantle terrorist infrastructure.  Incitement still exists 
in textbooks, and the Palestinian Authority has not shut down 
factories, labs, and tunnels, nor confiscated illegal 
weapons.  Shalom said Abbas can and should fight terrorist 
infrastructure because otherwise he will be putting the 
future of peace "in the hands of terrorists." 
 
3.  (C) Shalom continued that, regardless, things are better 
than 3-4 months ago, and Israel lately has seen visitors it 
had not seen in years.  He explained that at the recent 
opening of Yad Vashem, for example, 41 delegations came from 
all over the world because they believe "something is 
happening."  Shalom said this does not relate to just the 
Israelis and Palestinians, however.  It also relates to 
Saddam Hussein being gone, Muammar Qadhafi changing his 
attitude, Yasir Arafat dying, and the Lebanese asking for 
freedom.  He explained that Egypt and Jordan have returned 
their Ambassadors after four and a half years, that the 
Jordanian Foreign Minister recently visited, and that Israel 
is negotiating with Oman, Qatar, Morocco, and Tunisia to 
normalize relations with the GOI.  Shalom concluded that 
"many want to change to be on the good guy's side, the U.S." 
He cautioned the delegation, however, to be careful with 
extremists like the Palestine Islamic Jihad, Hamas, 
Hizballah, Syrian, and Iran, who will undermine progress with 
the Palestinians and Lebanon. 
 
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Resolution 1559 
--------------- 
 
4.  (C) On Resolution 1559, Shalom opined that Syria will 
have no choice but to disarm groups like Hizballah.  He said 
that although Syria has done bad things, such as helping 
Hamas and Hizballah, undermining stability in Iraq, and 
sheltering Hussein's cronies, the most important thing right 
now is to get it out of Lebanon.  Shalom predicted that 
Hizballah will try to paint a picture of instability and a 
new civil war, but this is because it is afraid to lose 
control and of being disarmed by a new Lebanese government. 
 
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Iraq 
---- 
 
5.  (C) Shalom commented that Iraq looks unstable, but he 
said he hopes that it can overcome the difficulties it faces. 
 He said there are rumors that a Shia regime will bring more 
religion to the people, but he said he believes Iraq and 
Sistani are different from Iran.  Shalom told the CODEL that 
he wants the coalition to succeed in Iraq so that other 
countries in the region will move to democratic systems. 
 
---- 
Iran 
---- 
 
6.  (C) Shalom warned that Iran is "still trying to build its 
bomb," and that it has only agreed to a temporary suspension, 
not a cessation of development.  He explained that September 
11 has shown terrorism is not just a problem in Israel, and 
everyone should be concerned about Iran's weapons with ranges 
capable of reaching Madrid, London, and Moscow.  Shalom said 
Iran must be stopped because it will have the knowledge to 
build a nuclear weapon in six months.  He suggested that the 
IAEA have a special session prior to its scheduled session in 
June, otherwise Iran will not have an incentive to stop its 
weapons development. 
 
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Travel Advisory 
--------------- 
 
7.  (C) Shalom reminded the CODEL that 13 congressmen 
recently wrote a letter to Secretary Rice asking her to 
cancel the travel advisory for Israel.  He said the time had 
come to bring a positive signal to the peace process, and 
canceling the advisory would be such a signal.  Shalom 
requested that if the U.S. does not cancel the travel 
advisory, it should at least change the level. 
 
8.  CODEL Dreier cleared this cable. 
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