US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN585

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000585 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR, EUR/PPD, EUR/CACEN, EUR, EUR/ACE, 
EUR/SNEC, EUR/SE 
 
E.O. 12958; N/A 
TAGS: KPAO, KMDR, OPRC, PREL, KG, AM, RU 
SUBJECT: ARMENIA PRESS REACTION: KYRGYZSTAN 
 
REF: YEREVAN 575 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  Colored by Russian President Putin's concurrent 
visit (March 24-25), public comments in Armenia about 
the situation in Kyrgyzstan reject speculation that a 
similar situation exists in Armenia.  Some politicians 
chalked up the change in Bishkek to "Western 
interference."  Even the opposition, once again calling 
for a "pomegranate" revolution this spring, did not 
jump to embrace the Kyrgyz revolt as a model.  The GOAM 
warned that the constant threat of renewed conflict 
with Azerbaijan, recently underscored by an increase in 
cross-border sniper fire, means, "Armenia would face 
destruction in the event of domestic turmoil."  End 
Summary. 
 
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"ARMENIANS ARE NOT KYRGYZ" - NO REVOLUTION HERE 
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2.  As the events in Kyrgyzstan reached a climax, 
public comment in Armenia was colored by Russian 
President Vladimir Putin's concurrent two-day visit to 
Yerevan.  On March 25, MPs from the ruling coalition 
stumbled over themselves to tell the press, "Armenians 
are not Kyrgyz.  The Kyrgyz events cannot be repeated 
in Armenia."  (MP Shahgeldian - Orinats Yerkir) 
"Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are in different regions, the 
political situations are quite different, so the 
repetition of Kyrgyz events in Armenia is practically 
impossible."  (MP Mkrtchian - ARF Dashnak) 
 
3.  Widely reported in the press on March 28, Prime 
Minister Andranik Markarian continued, "There is a huge 
difference between the international political 
situation in Armenia and Kyrgyzstan."  PM Markarian 
went on to refute comparisons not only with Kyrgyzstan, 
but also Georgia and Ukraine, saying, "That kind of 
popular protest...is impossible in Armenia because the 
underlying problems that triggered the unrest do not 
exist [here.]  Democracy continues to develop in 
Armenia; there are no economic problems...There are no 
basic reasons here to ignite revolt against the current 
authorities." 
 
4.  In a statement published on March 25 in every major 
newspaper, Foreign Minister Oskanian was more direct in 
dismissing the prospect of revolution in Armenia. 
After giving a nod to supporting "the will of the 
Kyrgyz people," FM Oskanian said, "the wave of 
revolution came to Armenia back in 1991, and ended 
then." 
 
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"INTERFERENCE OF THE WEST" 
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5.  Some pro-government and opposition voices found 
harmony in dismissing the events in Kyrgyzstan as less 
than homegrown.  On March 24, ARMINFO news agency 
reported comments made by the head of the parliamentary 
caucus of PM Markarian's Republican party, MP Sahakian: 
"The revolution in Kyrgyzstan took place due to the 
interference of the West, which is interested in 
strengthening its position in Central Asia."  The 
ardently oppositionist Secretary of the 'Justice Bloc,' 
Viktor Dallakian, when asked about Kyrgyzstan at a 
press conference on March 25, responded, "Revolutions 
in the post-Soviet republics should come from nation- 
wide movements rather than Western support.  West- 
sponsored revolutionaries form puppet governments." 
 
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OPPOSITION - REVOLUTION COMING 
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6.  At the same press conference Dallakian championed 
political change, but distanced his cause from the 
Kyrgyz and Georgian movements, saying, "I am sure 
Armenia will be the first [country] in the CIS to carry 
out a truly national revolution."  Notably, he tempered 
his rhetoric by ruling out violence, "Let those who 
blame us for indecision lead the people to bloodshed. 
The Justice Bloc will not risk its people for the sake 
of government change." 
 
7.  Aram Karapetian, a leader of the 'New Times Party,' 
was not as restrained.  On March 30, as reported in all 
of the newspapers, he reaffirmed his call for "the 
civilized handover of power to the 
opposition...dissolving the parliament and dismissing 
the government," and warned, "otherwise there will be a 
revolution from 'the bottom,' which will be tougher and 
more brutal.  The time has come for real action." 
 
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GOAM - REMEMBER NK 
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8.  Challenged by such revolutionary talk, the GOAM's 
rhetoric has returned reflexively to Nagorno Karabakh. 
The Defense Minister, Serzh Sargsyan, warned in an 
interview with RFE/RL on March 31, that the constant 
threat of renewed conflict with Azerbaijan means 
"Armenia would face destruction in the event of 
domestic turmoil."  He continued, "Our victory would 
depend on the extent to which the Armenian people, 
Armenia's political force, will stand with the Army." 
MOD Sargsyan's comments come at a time when incidents 
of sniper fire across the NK line of contact appear in 
the papers daily, and the Foreign Ministers and 
Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan are scheduled to 
meet to discuss the NK conflict before the end of May. 
EVANS