US embassy cable - 05LAGOS507

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000507 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PICK ME FOR PRESIDENT, OK HOW ABOUT VICE 
PRESIDENT? 
 
REF: ABUJA 458 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne per 1.4 b and d 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Governors Odili and Alamieyeseigha 
representing Rivers and Bayelsa states respectively, harbor 
unrealistic presidential aspirations, but are contenders for 
the Vice Presidential slot.  Though President Obasanjo has 
cooled somewhat towards Odili following the governor's 
failure to keep violence under control, Odili is still a 
strong presidential ally in the South-South.  Alamieyeseigha, 
the sole Ijaw governor in Nigeria, has been criss-crossing 
the country in a bid to increase his national recognition and 
credibility.  Presidential candidates Atiku Abubabakar 
(Atiku) and Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) are courting 
Alamieyeseigha as a running mate and IBB is also talking to 
Odili.  Neither Odili nor Alamieyeseigha enjoy national 
support and Odili would be hard-pressed to carry even his own 
state, were there fair and transparent elections.  However, 
with their large bankrolls from corruption, both governors 
fit nicely into Nigeria's "selection" paradigm and are 
political actors to watch in the run-up to 2007.  End Summary. 
 
South-South Dreams of President, but VP Slot More Likely 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
2. (C) In a recent meeting, Rivers State Governor Odili 
stressed the South-South was not bound by the "gentlemen's 
agreement" zoning the presidency to the North in 2007 
(reftel).  Odili declared the south-south "deserves" the 
presidency and there is no signed piece of paper ceding the 
top leadership spot to the North. He added that PDP Chair of 
the Board of Trustees Tony Anenih did not have the "right" to 
decide the presidency would go to the North. Odili raised the 
familiar claim of the historical underrepresentation of the 
Niger Delta in senior national politics as justification for 
a south-south president in 2007.  Their absence from national 
politics is particularly "galling", given the economic import 
of the region, Odili opined.  Asked whether the VP slot in 
2007 would suffice, Odili replied negatively, querying, "Why 
should we settle?" 
 
3. (SBU) Bayelsa State government representatives echoed the 
refrain that the South-South would not be appeased by the VP 
nod.  State officials proffered the same reasons Odili did 
and added the ethnic card -- Not only should Nigeria's next 
president be from the South- South, he should be Ijaw, the 
majority ethnic group in the Niger Delta.  Bayelsa State 
Secretary General Steve Azaiki told us Alamieyeseigha was on 
 
SIPDIS 
a campaign to build national credibility.  Azaiki drew our 
attention to Alamieyeseigha's "turbaning" -- the granting of 
an honorific title -- in VP Atiku's northern stronghold, 
Katsina.  (Note: While Atiku is from Adamawa, he considers 
Katsina part of his base because Katsina was the home of the 
late General Shehu Yar Adua from whom Atiku inherited the 
leadership of the PDM faction within the PDP.) 
Alamieyeseigha has also made several recent public speeches, 
emphasizing the need for "true federalism."  Finally the 
governor continues to advance infrastructure projects in 
Bayelsa.  This showed, Azaiki boasted, the governor was 
"serious" about 2007. 
 
Comment:  On March 12, Alamieyeseigha and Governor Orji Kalu 
of Abia state received titles from the Emir of Katsina at a 
ceremony attended by the Vice President and the governors of 
Adamawa, Katsina and Delta states.  The two governors became 
only the second and third southerners to be turbaned; the 
first was the late Chief M.K.O. Abiola.  It is very likely 
that this northern exposure did not come free of charge to 
presidential wanna-be's Alamieyeseigha and Kalu. 
Alamieyeseigha has publicly acknowledged donating computers 
to the Islamic University in Katsina.  We suspect that many 
more "gifts" were proffered.  End Comment. 
 
Possible Match-Ups: IBB -Alamieyeseigha, IBB- Odili, 
Atiku- Alamieyeseigha 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
4. (C) Political insider Professor Ukande Damachi told us IBB 
was looking at Alamieyeseigha as running mate.  IBB is also 
winking at Odili.  He likes both governors because they have 
large coffers with which to fund a national campaign.  Odili 
has the added attraction of being Obasanjo's man.  IBB might 
be calculating that having Odili at his side could make 
Obasanjo less jittery about Babangida's efforts.  On the 
other hand, Alamieyeseigha is not in Obasanjo's good graces. 
He is perceived as an Atiku man; however in the past several 
months he has been somewhat less visible and vocal in support 
of the Vice President. 
 
 
5.  (C) Atiku is "talking with" Alamieyeseigha according to 
Bayelsa state officials. Despite believing the time is nigh 
for an Ijaw president, the governor's chief political adviser 
told us the vice presidency would be a "fine start" for the 
Niger Delta peoples.  In short, Alamieyeseigha may be 
shooting for the top job in hopes of landing the second slot. 
 
Home Support Weak for Odili, 
Somewhat Stronger for Alamieyseigha 
----------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Governor Odili enjoys very little support in Rivers 
(reftel).  He is referred to derisively as "Governor 
Donate-Us" for his penchant of donating lavishly to pet 
projects.  A rabid soccer fan, Odili has donated new cars, 
millions of Niara, and even plots of land to high-performing 
soccer players.  Rivers State residents complain bitterly 
that the governor's "philanthropy" is at odds with the 
state's poor infrastructure, inadequate social services, and 
high unemployment.  Though the governor is widely believed 
among Nigeria's most corrupt public officials, his closeness 
with the President leads most to consider him "untouchable." 
 
7.  (C)  Odili continues to face mini-eruptions from militant 
Ijaw leader Dokobu Asari and other politicized gangs.  This 
week, for example, Asari and his boys staged a small protest 
in Port Harcourt.  Sources tell us Odili has failed to 
implement fully the gun buy-back agreement brokered between 
Asari and Obasanjo last fall.  Under the terms of the 
agreement, the government was to pay an average  of Naira 
200,000 ($1,500) per weapon -- a sum roundly criticized by 
independent observers for being so generous as to encourage 
future armed criminality.  However it seem that Odili has not 
paid in full.  Making matters worse, it appears Asari did not 
share the revenues he did receive from the buy-back program. 
 
8. (C)  By contrast, Alamieyeseigha enjoys some measure of 
popular support.  Bayelsa is an almost ethnically homogenous 
Ijaw state.  State residents support Alamieyeseigha because 
they see him as the premier Ijaw elected political figure in 
Nigeria.  In addition, Alamieyeseigha has successfully 
implemented some infrastructure projects -- though nothing 
commensurate with the scale of oil revenues his state recoups 
from the federal government.  Alamieyeseigha too ranks in the 
top-tier of reportedly corrupt public officials, according to 
many observers. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C) The three main presidential contenders (Obasanjo, 
Atiku and IBB) have promised positions to virtually every 
governor in their efforts to secure support for their 2007 
ambitions.  While Odili and Alamieyeseigha are prominent 
politicians from the increasingly important South-South 
region, neither would garner much national support in a fair, 
transparent, intimidation-free, electoral process.  Both 
governors are viewed as corrupt.  Though there was political 
thuggery throughout the country in the 2003 elections, the 
violence and intimidation in Rivers State was particularly 
bad.  That said, the money hoarded from corruption will stand 
Odili and Alamieyeseigha well if the presidential/vice 
presidential campaign takes place under the Nigerian 
"selection" paradigm. 
 
10.  (U)  This cable has been cleared by Embassy Abuja. 
BROWNE