US embassy cable - 05SOFIA623

UNCLAS  SOFIA 000623 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, BU 
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: SOCIALISTS RETAIN STRONG LEAD FOR JUNE 
ELECTION, BUT PM'S PARTY GAINING SLOWLY 
 
Ref: (A) SOFIA 00333, (B) SOFIA 00242, (C) 2004 SOFIA 
002174, 
(D) 2004 SOFIA 00886, (E) 2004 SOFIA 00432 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Support for Prime Minister Simeon Saxe- 
Coburg and his ruling party has slowly but steadily 
increased over the past year, and the former king was named 
by a plurality as the preferred candidate to lead the next 
government, according to a survey by the International 
Republican Institute.  However, poll data indicates that 
time and expected low turnout still favor the better- 
organized Socialists.  The survey, carried out in mid- 
March, showed that although the gap is narrowing, the 
opposition Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) remains the 
frontrunner in the election with a nearly 10-percent lead 
over the ruling National Movement for Simeon II (NMSS). 
The narrowing gap suggests the parliamentary elections will 
be hotly contested, and the race for first place will be 
between the Socialists and the ex-king's movement.  The 
weakened and fractious center-right seems, at least at this 
stage, to be out of the game.  The IRI survey also showed 
falling support for membership in NATO and a lack of public 
support for U.S. bases in Bulgaria, both attributed to 
Bulgaria's unpopular military involvement in Iraq.  END 
SUMMARY 
 
NMSS: IMPROVING YET UNCERTAIN CHANCES 
 
2. (SBU) Simeon Saxe-Coburg's liberal coalition is on its 
way to become only the second post-communist government to 
complete its full four-year term in office.  The percentage 
of thos who believe Simeon's team deserves re-election 
ncreased to 25.4 percent in March from 19.1 percen a year 
earlier.  In March 2005, the majority ofBulgarians (58 
percent compared to 27 percent a ear ago) believe hat 
Saxe-Coburg does a good or ery good job as PM, while the 
number of those wh say he does a very bad job fell sharply 
to 4.0 ercent from 20 percent.  The poll also showed the 
former monarch to be the preferred future prime mnister 
with 17.6 percent support, slightly ahead f the young 
Socialist leader, Sergei Stanishev, ith 16.8 percent, and 
well ahead center-right oposition leaders. 
 
WELL-ORGANIZED SOCIALISTS RETAIN LEAD 
 
3. (SBU) If elections were held now, the BSP would win the 
greatest number of seats in the next parliament, although 
falling short of an absolute majority.  The BSP lead over 
the NMSS was 9.2 percent in March, when support for the 
Socialists stood at 23.1 percent against 13.9 percent for 
the NMSS.  The well-organized BSP, the political party with 
the longest tradition and the most developed regional 
structures, has enjoyed consistently high support over the 
past year.  A total of 36 percent say the BSP deserves a 
chance to govern the country, against 27 percent for the 
NMSS and 15 percent for the opposition center-right Union 
of Democratic Forces (UDF).  The BSP has the most 
monolithic electorate, with 91 percent vote retention since 
the 2001 election.  Its support consists predominantly of 
pensioners, people with a high-school education or less, 
and those living in small towns and villages.  In contrast, 
the NMSS enjoys its highest support levels among 23 to 34 
year-olds and high school/college graduates.  Although it 
retains only 32 percent of its 2001 vote, the NMSS has a 
much higher electoral reserve, giving it the potential 
ability to reach out to centrist and undecided voter, as 
well as disillusioned rightwing supporters. 
 
DISTRESSING NEWS FOR THE CENTER-RIGHT 
 
4. (SBU) The weakened center-right continued to lose ground 
as fractious opposition leaders failed to overcome 
political and personal differences. Electoral support for 
the UDF stood at a mere 5.4 percent in March, perhaps the 
lowest levels since it began leading the anti-communist 
opposition in 1989.  Ex-PM Kostov's party, the Democrats 
for Strong Bulgaria, and the party of Sofia Mayor Stefan 
Sofianski (the Union of Free Democrats or UFD) have 
electoral support of 2.6 and 3.3 percent respectively, 
meaning that their chances to cross the four percent 
threshold and enter the next parliament are uncertain.  The 
centrist New Time, a NMSS splinter group that became a 
junior coalition partner following the February cabinet 
reshuffle, has support of 1.5 percent.  Its chances to 
enter the next parliament are minimal unless it strikes a 
pre-election deal with the NMSS or the other governing- 
coalition partner, the ethnic-Turkish Movement for Rights 
and Freedoms (MRF). 
 
LOW TURNOUT FAVORS SOCIALISTS 
 
5. (U) A total of 67 percent say they plan to vote in the 
 
 
June general elections, while 30 percent say they will not 
go to the polls and 3.0 percent don't know.  Low turnout 
will favor the Socialists, who have the most disciplined 
electorate.  Bulgaria's complicated proportional 
representation system gives an additional bonus to the 
winning party, which gets the lion's share of the 
redistributed votes of parties that don't make the four 
percent threshold to enter parliament.  Therefore, the 
possibility that the BSP will win an absolute majority in 
case of low turnout cannot be completely excluded. 
 
SUPPORT FOR NATO AND U.S. BASES SLIPPING 
 
7. (SBU) Support for Bulgaria's membership in the EU rose 
to 77 percent in March, up eight percent from a year ago, 
as Bulgaria prepared to sign its accession treaty on April 
25 and join the Union in 2007.  This rise follows a similar 
trend in other EU aspirant states where support for the EU 
membership peaked on the eve of signing the EU accession 
papers.  Support for Bulgaria's membership in NATO, 
however, dropped to 52 percent in March from 62 percent a 
year ago, when Bulgaria joined the North-Atlantic military 
alliance.  Pollsters linked the drop to the predominantly 
negative attitudes in Bulgaria towards the country's 
military participation in Iraq.  Similarly, the polls 
showed that the majority of Bulgarians now oppose U.S. 
troops using bases in Bulgaria.  A total of 61 percent 
disapprove of U.S. bases in Bulgaria, up from 50 percent a 
year ago.  In addition to the unpopular war in Iraq, much 
of the increased opposition to stationing U.S. forces in 
Bulgaria can be attributed to the government's failure so 
far to explain the issue adequately to the public. 
 
8. (SBU) COMMENT:  While the former king's party is rising 
in the polls, it is still considered the underdog, largely 
because of poorly developed regional structures, lack of 
party organization and weak leadership at the top.  If the 
gap between the Socialists and the NMSS continues to narrow 
the 2005 election could be a hotly contested affair. 
However, if the NMSS makes no further progress against the 
Socialists, the BSP will likely win a plurality of seats 
but fall short of a majority needed to form a government. 
Nearly three months before the elections, two things are 
clear: the next government will likely be a coalition, and 
it will be led by either the BSP or the NMSS, with today's 
smart money being placed on the BSP.  END COMMENT 
 
9. (U) TABLE: If elections were held now, for which party 
would you cast you vote? (respondents answer through secret 
ballot) 
--------------------------------------- 
Party                      March 2005 (%) 
--------------------------------------- 
BSP                           23.1 
NMSS                          13.9 
MRF                            5.8 
UDF-DP-St.George's Day         5.4 
UFD-BANU-IMRO                  3.3 
DSB (Ivan Kostov)              2.6 
Evroroma                       2.0 
New Time                       1.5 
NMRF                           1.3 
Bulgarian Communist Party      1.1 
Other                          3.5 
Have not decided               3.6 
Will not vote                 29.4 
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