US embassy cable - 05ROME1127

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 001127 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
NOFORN 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/WE AND EUR/ERA, USEU FOR MEZNAR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, IT, EUN, ITALIAN POLITICS, ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS 
SUBJECT: EU COMMISSIONER FRATTINI PREDICTS BIG CABINET 
SHAKEUP (INCLUDING HIS OWN RETURN TO ROME) FOR SECOND 
BERLUSCONI ADMINISTRATION 
 
REF: ROME 1058 
 
Classified By: A/DCM TOM COUNTRYMAN.  REASON:1.4 (B)(D) 
 
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BERLUSCONI II 
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1. (C/NOFORN) During Ambassador Sembler's April 1 farewell 
courtesy call, EU Commissioner for Justice and Home Affairs 
(and former Italian FM) Franco Frattini (strictly protect) 
predicted that PM Berlusconi's program of tax cuts and 
infrastructure improvements would win his center-right 
coalition a second mandate in the spring 2006 elections.  The 
left, and its leader Romano Prodi, represent "old-style 
thinking," are losing popularity, cannot communicate 
effectively, and have neither vision nor enthusiasm. 
Frattini confided that Berlusconi would undertake a "broad 
reshuffle" of his cabinet to "renew" his second government 
and give it "fresh impetus."  Berlusconi may even announce 
some of the changes just prior to the elections. Frattini 
confided that he would return to Rome if Berlusconi wins the 
elections, but that this information was, at the moment, 
secret. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
2. (C) Frattini also predicted that a center-right victory at 
the polls would result in either PM senior advisor Gianni 
Letta or Chamber of Deputies President Pier Fernando Casini 
being selected President of the Republic in May 2006 by the 
next Parliament.  A center-left victory would likely result 
in former PM Giuliano Amato as President.  Frattini noted 
that Letta would win the support of many on the left, and 
that while Berlusconi would be reluctant to give up Letta's 
day-to-day counsel, the PM would value having "such a close 
friend" in the Quirinale.  Frattini was not quite as 
confident about the center-right's results for this weekend's 
regional elections.  He predicted that the right would win 
six or seven of the 14 regions in play, including Piemonte, 
Lombardia, Veneto, Lazio, Puglia and Calabria. (Note: The 
center-right currently holds eight regions.) 
 
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BRUSSELS PRIORITIES - IMMIGRATION 
--------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) In Brussels, he and his Commission will continue to 
focus on issues of critical concern to both the US and EU, 
including transportation security and a visa regime.  On May 
4 his office will release the first ever EU policy paper on 
immigration and border control.  The document will call for 
more north-south cooperation on immigration, refugee and 
asylum issues so that Mediterranean countries do not continue 
to bear a disproportionate share of the burden.  It will also 
outline proposals for more third-country involvement on 
interdiction, as well as repatriation and resettlement of 
illegal immigrants. 
 
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VISA WAIVER-BIOMETRICS 
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4. (SBU) The Ambassador handed Frattini a copy of House 
Judiciary Chairman Sensenbrenner's response to his letter 
asking for a nine month extension of the deadline for 
implementing the USG requirement that passports issued after 
October 26 held by Visa Waiver program travelers must have an 
embedded biometric chip.  Frattini had not seen the response, 
and did not react to Sensenbrenner's view that an extension 
was "unlikely" except to say that many countries are 
experiencing "financial constraints" in their attempts to 
make the deadline.  Frattini plans to travel to the US in 
June, but did not indicate he would meet with US lawmakers to 
discuss this issue.  The details of his visit are being 
worked out by the Italian Embassy, but it will definitely 
include a speech at Georgetown University. 
 
5. (C/NOFORN) Comment:  Frattini's plea for secrecy about his 
planned return to Rome for a second Berlusconi administration 
is probably based on his reluctance to upset his fellow 
Commissioners and Commission President Barroso. If Berlusconi 
happens to lose, Frattini would likely retain his position in 
Brussels.  Frattini did not confide the exact position he 
would hold in Berlusconi II, but if his Presidential 
prediction pans out, he could step into Letta's place as 
Berlusconi's right hand. 
 
SEMBLER 
 
 
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 2005ROME01127 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL