US embassy cable - 05PARIS2205

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002205 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, EUR/PPD, AND INR/EUC 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2010 
TAGS: ECON, ELAB, EU, FR, PGOV, PINR, SOCI 
SUBJECT: 'YES' VS. 'NO' -- THE FRENCH REFERENDUM DEBATE 
 
 
Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Josiah Rosenbla 
tt for reason 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
1.  (SBU) The deepening debate in France over the EU 
Constitution has highlighted the divisions within the 
center-right and center-left coalitions that dominate the 
country's political scene.  Overall, to be in favor of the 
proposed Constitution is seen as supporting business-as-usual 
-- to favor taking the next, long-planned step in the 
construction of Europe and to confirm in power the political 
elite (both left and right) that has been nearly unanimous in 
its support for Europe for the last quarter century. 
Overall, to be against the proposed Constitution is seen as 
objecting to both the workability and direction of the EU. 
The EU's continued enlargement is seen as making for a more 
diffuse, less cohesive and effective EU as an international 
political player -- and one in which France will lose its 
pre-eminence.  For many on the center-left, to vote 'no' is 
also to vote against President Chirac, expressing 
dissatisfaction with his and Prime Minister Raffarin's 
economic and social policies.  END SUMMARY. 
 
ULTRA-CONSERVATIVES VS. CONSERVATIVES WITHIN THE CENTER-RIGHT 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------- 
2. (SBU)  The center-right, led by the Union for a Popular 
Movement (UMP) party -- and its electorate -- largely favor 
the proposed Constitution.  Latest polls show that among 
voters who identify themselves as right-of-center, likely 
'yes' voters outnumber likely 'no' voters by about 60 percent 
to 40 percent.  The ultra-conservative fringe of the 
center-right, the traditionalist faction led by Phillippe de 
Villiers, opposes the proposed Constitution and has centered 
its 'vote no' campaign on the issue of Turkey's eventual 
accession to the EU. 
 
3. (SBU) Tellingly, the center right's most popular figure, 
UMP president and former Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, 
has been equally firm in his support for the Constitution and 
in his opposition to Turkey's membership in the EU. 
Sarkozy's position -- 'yes' to the Constitution, 'no' to 
Turkey -- is the same as that of Francois Bayrou, leader of 
the small, centrist Union for French Democracy (UDF) party. 
The factor that energizes the "the question of Turkey," as 
the French refer to the issue, is popular fear of unlimited 
Muslim immigration to France and uneasy coexistence with the 
5 million Muslims already in the country.  A critical mass of 
center-right voters seem to have accepted the position of 
Sarkozy (and Bayrou), and have separated the issue of 
accepting the proposed Constitution from the issue of whether 
or not 69 million Turks should, eventually, become citizens 
of the EU. 
 
RADICALS VS. MODERATES WITHIN THE CENTER-LEFT 
--------------------------------------------- 
4.  (SBU) The center-left Socialist Party (PS) -- and its 
electorate -- is deeply divided.  The socialist moderates, 
led by party National Secretary Francois Hollande and former 
Finance Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn, see the proposed 
Constitution as a necessary, if flawed, platform for pursuing 
social justice and solidarity ("l'Europe sociale") in ways 
that will be binding in all EU member states.  The moderates' 
'vote yes' campaign focuses on this common purpose with 
socialists in the other member states and on those provisions 
of the proposed Constitution (charter of social rights, 
protection of social services, etc.) that are of socialist 
inspiration.  The trend in the polls is that agreement with 
the arguments of center-left moderates have lost considerable 
ground among left-leaning voters. 
 
5.  (SBU) The 'no' sentiment among center-left voters is 
driven by apprehension over diminishing job security and 
social services, compounded by a range of anti-government and 
anti-elite feelings.  The leaders of the 'no' camp on the 
left -- former Budget Minister Henri Emmanuelli and Senator 
Jean-Luc Melenchon -- have succeeded in channeling this 
disquiet over the economic situation and antipathy towards 
corporate interests, Euro-technocrats and globalization into 
opposition to the proposed Constitution, specifically, the 
way -- they allege -- that it establishes unfettered 
"ultra-liberal" capitalism in Europe.  The intensity of the 
'no' versus 'yes' debate among socialist voters stems from 
the way the 'no' camp has made it a showdown between those 
faithful to socialist ideals (themselves) and the moderates 
whom they accuse of selling out. 
 
6.  (C) The 'yes' camp on the left counters that both moving 
forward with a European socialist agenda and normalizing 
center-right/center-left alternation in power in France 
requires abandoning the contestatory, to-the-barricades 
maximalism of 'old left' ideals.  Among the socialists' voter 
base -- many of them union members and government employees 
in the beleaguered public health and education systems -- the 
moderates' realism is emotionally unsatisfying.  However, the 
socialist 'yes' camp arguments did win over, with difficulty, 
59 percent of the 120,000 active members of the Socialist 
Party at the time of the party's internal referendum on the 
proposed Constitution last December.  The most recent polls 
show that over 40 percent of likely voters remain undecided; 
the bulk of these are found among France's 12 million or so 
socialist sympathizers.  It remains to be seen if the 
arguments of the 'yes' supporters on the left -- abetted by 
the intervention of President Chirac -- will again succeed, 
winning over enough left-of-center voters to tip the scales 
in favor of 'yes' on referendum day May 29. 
 
LATEST POLL RESULTS 
------------------- 
7.  (U) An Ifop-Paris Match poll released March 31 shows the 
'no' camp holding its lead over the 'yes' camp, 53 percent 
'no' to 47 percent 'yes'.  This is a slight narrowing -- from 
55/45 percent respectively -- of the 'no' lead registered in 
polls a week before.  The March 31 poll also shows that 54 
percent of respondents say they have decided how they are 
going to vote and 43 percent say they remain undecided (3 
percent have no reply to question).  Among those who say they 
can still change their mind, the bulk are on the center-left 
(Socialist Party and Greens sympathizers). 
 
8.  (U) In addition, the poll shows that on the far left and 
far right ends of the political spectrum (Communist party and 
National Front party sympathizers) the split is 25 percent 
'yes' and 75 percent 'no'.  Within the center-left and center 
(Socialist Party and Union for French Democracy party) the 
split is 55 percent 'yes' and 45 percent 'no'.  On the 
center-right (Union for a Popular Movement party 
sympathizers) the split is 77 percent 'yes' and 23 percent 
'no'.  This poll also shows that the proposed Constitution is 
favored by about three-fifths of old people and young people. 
 Among the thirty-somethings and the middle aged, however, 
'no' sentiment prevails by 56 percent to 44 percent.  This 
poll also confirms what has long been known, that industrial 
workers and service employees at the low end of the wage 
scale, along with rural folk, tend towards 'no' by a 
significant three fifths to two fifths.  Interestingly, among 
those polled, 49 percent say the 'yes' will win and 38 
percent say the 'no' will win (13 percent have no reply to 
the question). 
 
 
 
 
LEACH