US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU995

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000995 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SA/INS 
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, NP, Government of Nepal (GON) 
SUBJECT: PM'S PARTY REVOLTS ON EMERGENCY VOTE 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 968 
 
Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI.  REASON:  1.5(B,D). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) At a May 22 Central Working Committee (CWC) meeting, 
members of the ruling Nepali Congress voted to direct Prime 
Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba to withdraw his proposal for a 
six-month extension of the state of national emergency 
(Reftel).  At COB the CWC decision was being debated in a 
Parliamentary Party meeting where Deuba appears to have more 
support.  If Deuba chooses to defy the CWC directive and 
pursue extension of the emergency tomorrow, he (and members 
of his Cabinet) could be expelled from the party.  The move 
prompts a direct and potentially destructive show-down 
between Deuba and his long-time rival, former PM and Nepali 
Congress President G.P. Koirala, one day before debate on the 
extension of the emergency begins in Parliament May 23.  End 
summary. 
 
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CWC MEETING 
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2.  (SBU) At a May 22 meeting chaired by former Prime 
Minister and Party President G.P. Koirala, members of the 
Central Working Committee (CWC) of the ruling Nepali Congress 
Party decided to instruct Prime Minister Deuba to withdraw 
from the Parliamentary Secretariat his Government's proposal 
to extend the state of national emergency for an additional 
six months (Reftel).  Only seven members of the CWC, 
including the PM himself and several Ministers, voted against 
the decision.  Debate on extension of the emergency is set to 
begin May 23.  The emergency will expire May 26 unless a 
two-thirds majority in Parliament votes to extend it. 
 
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PARLIAMENTARY PARTY MEETING 
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3.  (C)  The CWC meeting was immediately followed by a 
Parliamentary Party meeting that was continuing well after 
COB May 22.  According to MP Narayan Singh Pun, support for 
the two rival camps is more evenly balanced in the 
Parliamentary Party Committee; he estimated that Deuba might 
even have a slight edge over Koirala.  Neither side seems 
prepared to back down, Pun said.  If the Parliamentary Party 
meeting is unable to come to a decision about the CWC 
directive, the matter will likely be referred to the Cabinet. 
 
 
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LETTER RILES PM 
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4.  (C) The showdown in the CWC meeting was foreshadowed a 
day previously when Nepali Congress General Secretary Sushil 
Koirala sent Deuba a letter demanding "clarification" of his 
bid to extend the emergency.  Before a May 21 briefing on 
counter-insurgency and conflict mitigation efforts by USAID 
consultants Dr. Scott Palmer and Dr. Tom Marks at the PM's 
residence, Deuba complained indignantly to the Ambassador 
about the letter, which alleged the PM had bypassed the party 
in putting the proposal to extend the emergency before the 
Parliamentary Secretariat.  Such charges were patently false, 
Deuba said, adding that he himself had gone to the Party 
President's house upon his return from the U.S. and the U.K. 
to brief him on his visit and to consult with him about 
extending the emergency.  The former PM had raised no 
objection at the time, according to Deuba, and had even 
seemed sympathetic to the need for the extension.  Deuba 
viewed the letter as just another example of G.P.'s numerous 
attempts to gain political mileage at his rival's expense. 
The letter further annoyed Deuba because it implied that the 
Army Chief "pressured" the PM to call for an extension, he 
noted.  The Chief of Army Staff, present at the Ambassador's 
meeting with the PM, caustically corrected Deuba by saying 
the Nepali word actually translated as "forced."  That was 
not at all true, Deuba maintained; the security chiefs had 
only briefed him on the situation and left him to make his 
own decision. 
 
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COMMENT 
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5.  (C)  If Deuba does indeed have a majority among Nepali 
Congress MPs, the Koirala camp will be unable to bring a vote 
of no confidence against the PM.  At the same time, if Deuba 
defies the CWC and continues pursuing extension of the 
emergency, he (and members of his Cabinet) risk expulsion 
from the party, which could have serious implications for the 
longevity of his government.  With both sides apparently 
unprepared to back down, none of the possible outcomes of 
this grim scenario--the dissolution of Parliament, a split in 
the Party--is particularly appealing.  Just back from highly 
visible visits to the U.S. and U.K., with pledges of 
international support to defeat the Maoists in hand, Deuba 
was riding high and likely anticipated little difficulty in 
getting the emergency--which most sectors of society agree 
has done much to improve security in the country--extended. 
Koirala has been angling to replace his long-time rival 
almost since the day Deuba got the prime ministership from 
him last July.  Why Koirala should pick this particular 
moment to force a confrontation--just as the Government seems 
to be getting on track against the insurgency--might defy 
common logic but makes perfect sense to those who know him. 
Koirala's divisiveness might undermine the national interest 
but serves his personal interest quite well. 
MALINOWSKI