US embassy cable - 05HARARE502

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000502 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2015 
TAGS: ZI, SF, PGOV, PREL, March 05 Elections, MDC, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: FRAUDULENT LANDSLIDE "WIN" FOR ZANU-PF 
 
REF: HARARE 501 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell 
Reason 1.4(b) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  Nearly complete results show ZANU-PF cruising to an 
overwhelming win in Zimbabwe's parliamentary elections amid 
mounting (and credible) allegations of fraud by the MDC and 
civil society.  With five seats remaining to be announced, 
ZANU-PF has taken 74 and the MDC 40, with one independent 
also winning.  Evidence of electoral fraud is growing, but 
specific evidence is unlikely to come in from the field until 
next week.  Next steps for the MDC and civil society are 
uncertain.  The MDC party leadership is apparently leaning 
toward a conservative approach in confronting the government, 
although senior leaders are meeting the afternoon of April 2 
to discuss other options.  As expected, the SADC and South 
African Government observer missions have blessed the poll. 
End Summary. 
 
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MDC ROBBED AGAIN 
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2.  (SBU)  Zimbabwe Electoral Commission results as of 1300 
local time show that ZANU-PF candidates have won 74 seats 
nationwide and the MDC 40.  Former Information Minister 
turned independent candidate Jonathan Moyo won the 
Matabeleland North seat of Tsholotsho.  Five seats have not 
yet been announced -- four ZANU-PF held seats around Gokwe in 
Midlands, and the MDC seat of Binga in Matabeleland South. 
Curiously, the state-owned Herald newspaper announced in its 
morning edition that ZANU-PF had taken 81 seats to 38 for the 
MDC.  A contact at the Japanese Embassy told Emboffs that the 
Zimbabwean Embassy in Tokyo had relayed their Foreign 
Ministry those numbers last night.  The percentage of the 
vote count nationwide runs 59 percent for ZANU-PF and 40 
percent for the MDC, as compared to roughly 48 percent a 
piece in the badly tainted 2000 elections. 
 
3.  (SBU)  An analysis of the results shows a crushing defeat 
for the opposition, particularly outside its urban bastions. 
Should they win Binga but lose the four Gokwe seats (a likely 
result), they will have lost 16 seats from their 2000 total 
of 57.  More significantly, the party will have been denied 
every rural constituency outside of Matabeleland.  MDC 
candidates won only one seat in the three ZANU-PF-dominated 
Mashonaland provinces, a peri-urban seat, seldom garnering 
more than a third of the vote.  Most disappointingly, the 
party performed poorly in Masvingo and Manicaland provinces, 
where they considered many seats up for grabs.  Furthermore, 
several senior party incumbents lost their seats, including 
Evelyn Masaiti, Renson Gasela, and Paul Themba Nyathi. 
 
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FRAUD ALLEGATIONS MOUNTING 
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4.  (C)  As disappointing as the election results are to the 
MDC what may be worse is how they lost.  This will mark the 
third election in a row that ZANU-PF has stolen.  Allegations 
of electoral misconduct continue to mount, both from the MDC 
and the independent Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN). 
 An American consultant who has been working with ZESN told 
us that the network is likely to make a statement soon about 
the conduct of the polls, which will likely emphasize the 
exceedingly unlevel playing field, the high number of 
rejected voters (noted in Reftel), and in particular the 
opacity of the tabulation process. 
 
5. (C) Early analysis seems to indicate that a great many 
rejected voters were either young (youth heavily supports the 
MDC) or lived in MDC-controlled areas.  In seven 
constituencies thus far, the number of rejected voters is 
higher than the margin of victory.  The American consultant 
said the opacity of the tabulation process appears to have 
been a deliberate attempt by ZEC and the government to 
prevent any sort of parallel vote count from emerging, as 
well as the vehicle for manipulating the official data. 
Contrary to provisions of the Electoral Act, relatively few 
polling stations posted their numbers after the counting was 
complete.  In addition, many observers were not allowed to 
leave their polling stations until very early Friday morning, 
after the official results had been announced, and were not 
allowed to phone in their observations.  Finally, Embassy 
observers have heard several reports of MDC polling agents 
not being allowed to witness the count, and some within the 
MDC believe there may have been ballot stuffing at these 
stations. 
6.  (C)  As reported reftel, in several constituencies, such 
as Manyame, there were turnout numbers announced by the ZEC 
Thursday evening that were much lower than those announced on 
Friday.  Shifting the tabulation paradigm from "flawed" to 
"fraudulent," however, may prove difficult for both ZESN and 
the MDC, absent their own parallel vote counts.  ZEC has been 
slow to release their final results by polling station, but 
neither organization has been able to take advantage and 
counter with their own figures.  In coming days, we expect 
the MDC to produce figures to back up their claims, possibly 
pointing to landslide ZANU-PF results at stations where their 
agents were not allowed to witness the count.  However, the 
delay in getting this information to the public could prove 
fatal to their efforts to spark public outrage. 
 
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NEXT STEPS FOR MDC UNCLEAR 
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7.  (C)  Senior MDC leaders are meeting at the moment to 
discuss the party's next steps in the wake of the result. 
David Coltart, a reelected MP and senior party official, told 
Emboffs in Bulawayo that the senior leadership is leaning 
toward a "conservative" approach to confronting the regime, 
and he noted that some party structures -- and youth in 
particular -- have been held back from protesting by MDC 
leadership.  It is unclear, however, what options the party 
has at its disposal.  Tsvangirai at his press conference 
yesterday ruled out a legalistic approach, but also declined 
to call for mass action.  It appears their "Plan B" was not 
well thought out in advance and that by default the party may 
have to regroup and start planning for 2008, an approach that 
could bring Tsvangirai's leadership into question. 
 
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REGIONAL OBSERVERS ISSUE GLOWING REPORTS 
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8.  (SBU)  As expected, regional observer delegations have so 
far blessed the poll result.  Head of the SAG delegation, 
Labor Minister Membathisi Mdladlana, gave a press conference 
this morning at which he stated that the results reflected 
the will of the people and praised the conduct of the polls. 
The preliminary SADC statement, issued yesterday, also 
blessed the polls, although it did note with concern the 
large numbers of rejected voters and other opposition 
concerns. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9.  (C)  Although many more allegations, facts, and figures 
are likely to keep coming in for several days, it is clear 
that the MDC has again been defrauded in a badly tainted 
election and will have few good options to reclama the 
result.  In fact, it appears that ZANU-PF cheating in this 
election was on an even greater scale than in 2000.  In any 
event, they survived and will remain for the time being the 
strongest opposition voice.  At this point, the focus must 
move to the future, particularly preparing for local council 
elections next year and ultimately the presidential poll in 
2008.  One lesson learned from this election is the 
importance of a parallel vote count. 
 
10.  (C)  For its part, ZANU-PF's strategy was apparently to 
create ballot stuffing and to rely on fraud at higher levels 
in the opaque tabulation process.  This enabled them, with 
the active connivance of the police, to create an orderly, 
calm, transparent process at the polls on voting day.  The 
dirty tricks took place out of sight in the back room 
operation and in the years and months befor the campaign 
began. 
 
11.  (C)  We will be assessing the lessons of this poll in 
more detail later, but it is already clear that the limited 
capacity of ZESN and the MDC to effectively counter ZEC 
figures has drastically limited their ability to challenge 
the legitimacy of the poll.  Preparing polling agents and 
observers for 2006 and 2008 is a process that must start 
immediately, and with sufficient funding, so that the same 
situation does not happen again. 
Dell