US embassy cable - 05HARARE501

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000501 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. NEULING 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ZI, March 05 Elections, ZANU-PF, MDC 
SUBJECT: INTERIM RESULTS INDICATE NET SHIFT TO RULING PARTY 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) As of 9:30 p.m. local time, the Zimbabwe Election 
Commission (ZEC) had reported 49 seats won by ZANU-PF and 35 
seats won by the MDC.  More importantly, the results so far 
represent a net shift of ten seats to the ruling party's 
favor from the 2000 election.  The opposition MDC has also 
failed to win a number of seats it expected to take from 
ZANU-PF.  It is increasingly clear that the results are 
fueled by ZANU-PF manipulations of the vote, including: 
sudden large increases in registration in contested 
constituencies, an extremely high rate of voters turned away 
from polling stations on technicalities, and suspicious vote 
counts.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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MDC Early Lead Evaporates 
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2.  (C) Latest ZEC reports indicate that ZANU-PF has taken at 
least eight constituencies from MDC control ) Chimanimani, 
Harare South, Mutare South, Mutasa South, Mutasa North, 
Nyanga, Mhondoro, and Chipinge North, the latter of which the 
opposition had considered a safe seat.  In addition, ZANU-PF 
won Bikita West and Insiza, seats that went MDC in 2000 but 
were reclaimed by ZANU-PF in violent by-electionS in 2001 and 
2003, respectively.  The ruling party also took Masvingo 
North and the newly created (gerrymandered out of Harare) 
Manyame seat in Mashonaland West ) both of which the MDC had 
considered as in play.  ZANU-PF also took Chipinge South from 
ZANU-Ndonga.  For its part, the MDC won the Kadoma seat in 
Mashonaland West from ZANU-PF and reclaimed the Zengeza 
constituency near Harare that it lost in a violent 
by-election last year after winning it in 2000. 
 
3.  (C) An American consultant who has been working with the 
neutral Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network (ZESN), which put 
over 6000 monitors in the field, told us that based on these 
results and other date, ZESN,s current projections were 73 
seats for ZANU-PF, 45 for MDC, and two independents, the 
latter including controversial former Information Minister 
Jonathon Moyo in Tsholotsho.  This plus the 30 seats 
President Mugabe appoints would give ZANU-PF a 2/3 majority 
in Parliament and with it the ability to change the 
Constitution unilaterally. 
 
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Three Ways to Steal an Election 
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High Turn-Away Rate 
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4.  (C) The percentage of voters turned away on a national 
level ) about 10 percent ) is alarmingly high.  The 
consultant noted that in other African elections, where 
voters typically had to vote at a specific polling station 
rather than at any station in a given constituency as in 
Zimbabwe, the rate was 2 or 3 percent.  In some polling 
stations, moreover, the turn-away figure jumped to 20 percent 
or more ) typically in heavily contested constituencies. 
The reasons generally offered by polling station officials to 
Embassy observers ) not being on the voter roll, inadequate 
identification, presence in the wrong constituency ) are 
associated with numerous GOZ manipulations that disfavored 
the opposition: redistricting efforts without informing 
voters, lack of adequate GOZ voter education efforts 
generally, and the effective disenfranchisement of Zimbabwean 
youth (considered likely MDC voters) through onerous proof of 
residency requirements. 
 
5.  (C) Further indicating conscious manipulation, Embassy 
observers found that the turn-away figure jumped in areas 
where the MDC posed the greatest threat.  For example, in 
Gokwe North, a ZANU-PF stronghold in Midlands, no more than 
10 people were turned away at any polling station.  However, 
in the highly contested constituency of Gokwe Central, about 
20 percent were turned away.  Figures from within 
constituencies show a similar pattern.  In Chimanimani, for 
example, Embassy observers found the highest turn-away 
figures in the neighborhood around imprisoned MDC MP Roy 
Bennett's seized farm. 
 
Sudden Increases in Numbers of Voters 
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6.  (C) Vote counts released so far by the ZEC are 
undermining confidence in the integrity of the results.  In 
the wee hours of Friday morning, the ZEC announced total 
votes cast in constituencies for six provinces.  However, the 
announcements suddenly stopped without any explanation, and 
no new numbers were ever released for the remaining four 
provinces.  When official results began to be released later 
in the morning, several constituencies in the six provinces 
showed large, and unexplained, increases in the total number 
of voters.  The four seats with the highest increase were all 
won by ZANU-PF by margins that were less than the additional 
voters.  The newly created Manyame seat in Mashonaland West 
had the highest increase, 72 percent, and has become exhibit 
A in the MDC,s claims of fraud. 
 
Large Increases in Registered Voters 
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7.  (C) Other numbers reflect the impact of GOZ efforts to 
stock the voter rolls with ruling party support.  In several 
key swing constituencies that went to ZANU-PF, there were 
very large increases in the number of voters compared to 
previous elections.  Given the high emigration from these 
areas over the past several years this strains credulity.  In 
Bennet,s Chimanimani seat, for example, the number of 
ballots cast increased from 20,000 in 2000 to 26,000 this 
year.  In a striking coincidence, MDC numbers remained flat 
in Chimanimani while ZANU-PF's increased by 6,000, enough to 
claim the seat.  The sudden increase was reportedly caused in 
large part by 4,000 soldiers registering in the constituency. 
 Other constituencies that experienced inexplicable jumps in 
the number of votes cast were Bikita West, Chipinge North, 
Bindura, and Marondera East ) all MDC prime targets that 
went for the ruling party. 
 
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MDC as Yet Unable to Substantiate Fraud 
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8.  (C) Complicating the MDC,s efforts to substantiate fraud 
is the late start they and ZESN got in conducting parallel 
vote counts.  The U.S. analyst attributed this to 
inexperience and disorganization but said the net result was 
that the MDC, despite having multiple polling agents at 
virtually every polling station, is days away from being able 
to announce alternative vote totals, even for its test case 
of Manyame, where the 72 percent discrepancy between the 
original vote count and the official results should be easily 
exposed by a tallying of all the relevant polling agents' 
figures.  ZESN is similarly behind in its parallel count, 
which would in any event also lack coverage of all polling 
stations. 
 
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Comment 
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9.  (C) The opposition now appears unlikely to win the 51 
seats it will need to thwart the ruling party's targeted 2/3 
parliamentary majority.  The MDC continues to talk bravely of 
plans to take to the streets but we are increasingly 
skeptical that anything will come of it.  As reported 
earlier, at his morning press conference Tsvangirai declined 
an opportunity to call for protests.  Moreover, it will 
unfortunately take time to substantiate the manner of 
ZANU-PF's rigging, by which time the dust may have settled 
politically and left the MDC in a position familiar to it 
after apparently stolen national elections in 2000 and 2002. 
On a bright note, Tsvangirai has said he will not launch 
legal appeals, which should save USAID millions that could be 
better spent supporting Mugabe,s democratic opponents. 
Dell