US embassy cable - 05QUITO729

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000729 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, ASEC, EC 
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: EX-PRES BUCARAM CLEARED TO RETURN 
 
 
Classified By: DCM Arnold Chacon.  Reason 1.4 (b&d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Supreme Court President Guillermo Castro 
absolved ex-president Abdala Bucaram of pending corruption 
charges on March 31, paving the way for Bucaram's return from 
self-imposed exile.  Castro's order was immediately 
challenged, and will be appealed.  Bucaram's supporters 
immediately announced his return on April 2, and convoked a 
celebratory reception in the streets of Guayaquil.  Whether 
Bucaram returns is therefore still in question.   Castro's 
controversial ruling will galvanize the opposition, which 
blames Gutierrez' alliance with Bucaram for his return.  He 
now faces a difficult decision--to weather a gathering 
political firestorm, or to move against one of his few 
political allies.  We are refraining from public comment 
until the situation stabilizes.  End Summary. 
 
Supreme Court President Acts, Is Challenged 
------------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) Castro, a political operative who owes his position 
to Bucaram's backing, on March 31 annulled two open criminal 
processes pending against ex-President Bucaram, stemming from 
his responsibility for official corruption in social spending 
and allegations that he robbed the Ecuadorian treasury while 
exiting the country when overthrown in 1997.  Castro's action 
suspended pending orders of preventive detention against 
Bucaram, clearing any legal obstacle to his return from 
Panama, where he has lived since his ouster.  Castro based 
his judgment on the fact that Congress had not approved the 
criminal charges against Bucaram, as required in article 130 
of the constitution.  He also suspended, for the same reason, 
pending corruption charges against ex-president Gustavo Noboa 
(who replaced deposed president Mahuad in 2000) and Alberto 
Dahik (vice president under Sixto Duran Ballen, 1982-86). 
 
3.  (U) Acting Attorney General Cecilia Arias, immediately 
challenged Castro's order, citing the fact that other Supreme 
Court justices had declared the charges valid.  Castro denied 
Arias' motion on April 1.  Arias is reportedly considering an 
appeal to the criminal chamber of the Supreme Court, 
currently controlled by judges allied with PRIAN leader 
Alvaro Noboa. 
 
Political Reaction Building 
--------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) Castro's decision immediately generated calls for 
his resignation by other court justices and political 
leaders, including Alvaro Noboa.  President Gutierrez 
publicly claimed to be unaware of Castro's decision before it 
was announced.  Bucaram's supporters immediately announced 
plans for a celebratory reception for Bucaram's return on 
April 2 in Guayaquil. Gutierrez reportedly convoked his 
security cabinet into emergency session late on March 31; we 
are not aware of any new security measures in place.  Quito 
Mayor Paco Moncayo convoked a meeting of the Assembly of 
Quito for noon on April 1. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
5.  (C) It is unclear to us whether Castro's move was 
coordinated with Gutierrez.  Presidential legal advisor 
Carlos Larrea told us it took the president by surprise.  If 
true, Gutierrez now faces a dilemma:  to prevent a political 
firestorm from threatening his government, he must prevent 
Bucaram's return by threatening his arrest.  Doing so would 
certainly threaten Gutierrez' alliance with Bucaram's PRE, 
and force him to seek an accommodation with the opposition. 
Anything short would galvanize the opposition to again 
challenge Gutierrez' mandate.  Noboa's support would give the 
opposition the numbers to credibly threaten impeachment. 
 
6.  (C) At a minimum, permitting Bucaram to return would 
rupture recent government efforts to dialogue with the 
opposition to resolve the festering controversy over the 
Supreme Court.  Were Bucaram to return to Ecuador, it is 
unclear how long he would stay--he has repeatedly expressed 
fear for his life were he to return.  We are convinced that 
fear is real. 
 
US Interests 
------------ 
 
7.  (C) The USG has no direct stake in Bucaram's legal 
situation, and a great stake in political stability and 
democratic strengthening in Ecuador.  Our ongoing concern 
about the weakness of democratic institutions will only 
increase if Castro's decision stands and Bucaram returns.  To 
avoid compounding the potential for destabilization of the 
government, we will refrain from public comment on Bucaram's 
case beyond reiterating our concern that democratic 
institutions, including the judiciary, require strengthening. 
 
KENNEY