US embassy cable - 05PRAGUE469

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000469 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EZ 
SUBJECT: CZECH PM GROSS SURVIVES NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE WITH 
HELP OF COMMUNIST ABSTENTIONS; FUTURE STILL UNCERTAIN 
 
REF: PRAGUE 444 
 
Classified By: Political-Economic Counselor Mike Dodman for reasons 1.4 
 b+d 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Czech PM Gross survived a no-confidence vote 
on April 1 thanks to abstentions from the Communist Party. 
Further resignations from Gross's cabinet are likely, and it 
is possible that the remaining coalition partner, Freedom 
Union, will withdraw.  Despite his victory, there are 
increasing calls for Gross's resignation, and some within his 
own party are even mentioning it as a possibility.  President 
Klaus is likely to be active in the coming days working 
towards this end; after the no-confidence vote he demanded 
that Gross promise to request a vote of confidence for any 
new cabinet.  End summary. 
 
2.  (U) The April 1 vote of no-confidence follows Gross's 
election March 26 as head of the Social Democratic Party, 
CSSD (reftel), and the March 30 decision of the Christian 
Democrats (KDU-CSL) to withdraw from the coalition.  The vote 
of no-confidence was called by the opposition ODS.  Voting in 
the 200-member Chamber of Deputies took place largely along 
party lines:  78 deputies (all of ODS and KDU-CSL) were in 
favor of toppling the government; 76 (CSSD plus 7 deputies 
from the Freedom Union) voted to support the government; and 
44 abstained:  all of the Communists and 3 from Freedom 
Union.   101 votes were needed to vote the government out of 
power. 
 
3.  (U)  In his speech before the no-confidence vote, Gross 
promised to submit a conflict of interest bill, demanded by 
the communists and the Freedom Union, as well as a bill on a 
"reasonable and socially tolerable adjustment of housing 
rents" -- clearly an incentive to the communists.  ODS 
Vice-Chair Vlastimil Tlusty gave an impassioned speech after 
the vote, saying the Prime Minister had lost his mandate and 
adding that the country had become a hostage to the 
communists.  KDU-CSL Vice Chair Jan Kasal also spoke, saying 
that Gross should now submit himself to a vote of confidence, 
a suggestion that received a great deal of applause,  but for 
which there is no constitutional requirement. 
 
4.  (SBU)  The reaction of the remaining government ministers 
and President Klaus will determine the next stage of the 
long-running crisis.  The Freedom Union leadership will meet 
the afternoon of April 1 to decide whether to remain part of 
the governing coalition.  Freedom Union leaders had earlier 
said they would not stay in a government dependent on the 
communists.  Freedom Union has three seats in the cabinet, 
Defense, Justice, and Information.  The Information Minister, 
Mlynar, has already made clear he will resign if his party 
does not withdraw.  In addition, several CSSD ministers 
(including Education Minister Buzkova, Culture Minister 
Dostal, and Trade Minister Urban), as well as independent 
Minister without Portfolio Bures, had earlier said they would 
resign if a communist-supported minority government appeared 
likely. 
 
5. (C) The President will take a leading role in the coming 
days, both publicly and behind the scenes, to create a 
coalition government that does not involve the communists. 
He told visiting Deputy Secretary Zoellick on March 31 that 
he would "test his constitutional authority" in the event 
that a minority government appeared to be likely, as is now 
the case.  Among the duties accorded the President in the 
Czech Constitution is that he "accepts" the resignations of 
ministers.  Gross on March 31 presented Klaus with the 
resignations of the three KDU-CSL ministers (Foreign Minister 
Svoboda, Environment Minister Ambrozek, and Transportation 
Minister Simonovsky).  Klaus has not yet formally "accepted" 
these resignations.  In a meeting with Ambassador on March 
24, KDU-CSL Chairman Kalousek had said that Klaus would 
follow exactly this tactic in order to force negotiations 
with the leading parties. 
 
6. (U) On the afternoon of April 1 Klaus stated publicly that 
he would not act on the resignations until he had a promise 
from Gross that he will seek a vote of confidence in a new 
cabinet. 
 
7. (C) There is increasing talk that pressure from the 
President and across the political spectrum could eventually 
force Gross to resign.  Following the vote of no-confidence 
we heard this for the first time from a CSSD insider.  One 
name in play as a possible replacement is Minister Bures, a 
former judge and Justice Minister, currently Minister for 
Legislative Affairs. 
 
8. (SBU) PM Gross on March 31 announced his nominees to 
replace the three KDU-CSL ministers who have resigned.  Jan 
Kohout, Czech Permanent Representative at the EU and former 
Deputy FM, would replace Svoboda;  the Executive Director of 
the National Transport Fund, Pavel Svagr, would become the 
new Minister of Transportation;  and CSSD parliamentarian 
Radko Martinek would get the Minister of Environment post. 
Kohout is a well respected professional, close to CSSD, who 
would be instrumental in keeping Gross's pledge to maintain 
consistency in Czech foreign and security policies no matter 
what the composition of the government.  The three 
nominations, and any others that may come to replace 
additional resignations, are not formally presented to the 
President until he accepts the resignations of the previous 
ministers. 
 
9. (C) Comment:  Events have moved quickly since the Easter 
weekend CSSD party congress, a reflection that all party and 
government leaders seem to realize the long-running crisis 
needs to come to an end.  We expect a busy weekend of 
negotiations, with the President's active participation. 
There will be increasing pressure for Gross's resignation 
from all quarters.  Other bargaining items on the table 
remain a date for early elections, the conclusion of the 
Cesky Telecom privatization, and the date of a referendum on 
the EU Constitution.  While a Gross-led minority government 
dependent on the communists remains a real possibility, the 
President's opposition to such an arrangement increases the 
chances that a new government will emerge, either recreating 
the previous three-party coalition or taking a more 
technocratic shape (i.e., with the President exerting 
increasing authority). 
CABANISS