US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV2015

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002015 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, KWBG, IS, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS 
SUBJECT: SHALOM TOURGEMAN ON DISENGAGEMENT, ABBAS'S 
CAPABILITIES 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Shalom Tourgeman, foreign policy advisor to 
the Prime Minister, spoke with CoDel Dreier March 29 about 
Israel's preparations for disengagement.  He noted that while 
the GOI expects two thirds of the Gaza settlers to depart 
prior to withdrawal, the ranks of the resisters may swell to 
between 7,000 and 10,000 as anti-disengagement activists 
travel to Gush Katif for "day of" protests.  On coordinating 
disengagement with the Palestinians, Tourgeman explained that 
disengagement had always been a "unilateral decision, not a 
unilateral step."  The GOI is eager to discuss the civil and 
security aspects of withdrawal, he said, but the PA appears 
to be resistant to this.  Tourgeman said that Arafat's death 
and the election of PA President Mahmoud Abbas presented new 
opportunities for forward movement on the peace process. 
Abbas's promises to Hamas and PIJ not to disarm them and to 
bring them into the political system, however, are in direct 
conflict with his roadmap responsibilities to dismantle 
terrorist infrastructure.  End summary. 
 
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GOI Ready For a Fight During Withdrawal 
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2.  (C) Shalom Tourgeman, foreign policy political advisor to 
Prime Minister Sharon, told CoDel Dreier March 29 that while 
many on the Right object to the disengagement, all of the 
parliamentary obstacles to the plan have now been removed and 
the GOI is preparing in earnest for evacuation.  By the end 
of July, he said, some two thirds of Gush Katif's settlers 
will have departed the Gaza Strip.  The third that remains, 
however, could be joined by thousands of West Bank settlers 
and anti-disengagement activists, raising the potential 
number of Gush Katif resistors on the "day of" evacuation to 
between 7,000 and 10,000.  Tourgeman said the IDF will call 
in many of its reserves, and will serve the dual purpose of 
providing security to Israeli National Police (INP) forces 
who will carry out the actual evacuation, and preventing 
possible terrorist attacks during withdrawal.  Israel remains 
determined, he explained, "not to appear as if we are 
evacuating under fire." 
 
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GOI Wants to Coordinate With the PA 
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3.  (C) Tourgeman said that Israel has always seen its 
disengagement plan as "a unilateral decision, not a 
unilateral step."  The GOI is eager to coordinate the 
economic, civil, and security aspects of disengagement with 
the Palestinians.  Israel is especially determined that 
terrorist and extremist groups like Hamas or PIJ not take 
over settlement assets post-withdrawal.  In Tourgeman's view, 
however, the PA "does not seem enthusiastic" about 
negotiating with Israel, something that he said will prove 
detrimental to the post-disengagement Gazan economy. 
 
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GOI Trusts Abbas' Intentions, Not His Abilities 
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4.  (C) The death of Yassir Arafat and the election of 
Mahmoud Abbas as PA President represent an opportunity to 
move forward, Tourgeman said.  Sharon trusts Abbas's own 
views and intentions, and the two leaders enjoy a strong 
personal relationship.  Additionally, the PA has made some 
efforts on terrorism, such as dispatching PA security forces 
to the Gaza Strip in response to the firing of Qassam rockets 
into Sderot.  Abbas does not have the capability to dismantle 
terrorist infrastructure, however, and without this there can 
be no significant progress.  In his view, Abbas's Cairo 
assurances to Hamas and PIJ -- a promise not to disarm them, 
and to bring them into the political arena as legitimate 
parties -- are in direct conflict with PA responsibilities 
under the roadmap. 
 
5.  (C) While Abbas has assured Israel that, given time, he 
will find a means of dismantling terrorist infrastructure and 
that "in the end, there will be no Hamas or PIJ," Tourgeman 
said Israel does not believe this is possible.  Unless Abbas 
acts now to seize weapons and make arrests, he explained, 
terrorist groups will continue to recruit and to smuggle 
weapons.  He noted that militants have managed to smuggle 
five anti-aircraft missiles from Egypt into the Gaza Strip, 
and although Israel has provided the name of the suspected 
smuggler to the PA, the PA security services have taken "no 
action" to find and arrest him.  Tourgeman said the GOI fears 
a "blow up" of terrorism months or years down the road. 
 
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