US embassy cable - 05BUCHAREST814

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 000814 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, SOCI, ECON, RO, election forecast 
SUBJECT: BUCHAREST HEADS TOWARD MAYORAL ELECTIONS 
 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary:  Bucharest voters vote for a new mayor 
Sunday, April 3, to fill the slot vacated in December by now 
President Traian Basescu.  The two leading candidates in the 
field of 17 contenders are Adriean Videanu, a Vice Premier 
in the center-right government and a Vice President of 
Basescu's Democratic Party (PD) and the former ruling Social 
Democratic Party's (PSD) Marian Vanghelie, the populist and 
reportedly corrupt mayor of a working class Bucharest 
borough.  Each of the principal candidates represents a 
different "face" of the Romanian political class and appeals 
to different constituencies: the polished Videanu attracts 
educated, middle class voters while Vanghelie is an old 
fashioned ward heeler who appeals to blue collar voters.  In 
the view of most analysts, Videanu enjoys a strong lead, 
although the crowded field could force a runoff.  End 
Summary. 
 
So Soon. and Why It's Important 
------------------------------- 
2. (SBU)   Bucharest residents Sunday, April 3, again head 
to the polls to choose a citywide mayor for the second time 
in nine months.  The position is the second most visible 
directly elected job in the nation. In June 2004, popular 
incumbent Traian Basescu trounced than Foreign Minister 
Mircea Geoana in the first round of elections, picking up 
nearly 55 percent of the vote despite a field crowded with 
other contenders.  Basescu resigned from the mayoralty 
following his surprise victory over PSD PM Adrian Nastase in 
the December 2004 presidential contest.  Since his 
departure, the mayor's office has been filled by the low 
profile Deputy Mayor and Democratic Party (PD) politician 
Razvan Murgeanu. 
 
3.  (SBU) With about 1,700,000 voters residing within city 
limits, the capital city's mayoral election is second only 
to the nationwide presidential contest in terms of total 
votes cast.  Additionally, the electoral law provides that 
only two classes of candidates for national or local office 
are subject to direct election: the nation's president and 
mayors.  All other candidates (city and county 
councilpersons and MPs) are chosen by a "party list" system. 
Consequently, political analysts view the Bucharest election 
as a litmus test for a candidate's potential success in 
national politics 
 
4.  (SBU) PSD leaders told us that they had hoped that ex-FM 
Geoana's candidacy last spring would be a springboard toward 
a national leadership role, both within the PSD and as PM 
under Nastase.  In 1996, then Mayor Victor Ciorbea was 
tapped to serve as PM of the center-right Romanian 
Democratic Convention (CDR) government.  The position also 
comes with real perks and powers, as Bucharest's mayor 
presides over a large workforce, has patronage powers, 
access to a sizeable budget from local tax revenue and the 
national government and, like Basescu, can use the office as 
a bully pulpit to weigh in on national political questions. 
 
And the candidates are... 
------------------------- 
5. (SBU) Of the seventeen candidates who have thrown their 
hats into the ring, the two leading contenders are the PNL- 
PD Alliance's candidate, former Vice-Premier and PD Vice- 
President Adriean Videanu, and the former ruling PSD's 
candidate, Mayor of Bucharest's "fifth district" (borough), 
Marian Vanghelie.  A poll conducted by the Social Research 
Bureau, commissioned by the PNL-PD alliance and released 
March 28 shows Videanu leading voters' preferences with 49 
percent and Vanghelie trailing with 28 percent.  Other 
polling tracks with these figures.  Most analysts also give 
the nod to Videanu, noting that Basescu and other key 
Alliance figures, such as popular Culture Minister Mona 
Musca, have enthusiastically endorsed him.  Additionally, 
Videanu's polished image and pro-business stance appeals to 
middle class and educated voters, a significant percentage 
of the city's population.  Despite his lack of experience in 
local government, he reportedly has a close relationship 
with Basescu, even bruited at one point last summer as a 
possible PM pick for a PNL-PD government.  A longstanding PD 
MP, Videanu moved  into the national spotlight in December 
2004 when he became Vice Premier.  Before resigning from 
that position March 18 to run for mayor, he was a lead GOR 
negotiator with the IMF. 
 
6. (SBU)  A wealthy businessman, Videanu has not been free 
from allegations of sharp dealing.  His dominant position in 
Romania's domestic marble industry has led some to accuse 
him of "insider dealing" with influential politicians to 
further his business ambitions.  He has also been linked to 
a scandal involving the collapse of a mutual fund in the 
1990's.  Videanu has categorically denied any wrongdoing and 
the well-spoken, mild-mannered and debonair politician 
generally enjoys a favorable popular image.  Indeed, many 
observers note that the button-down Videanu is the 
antithesis of the rather rumpled, outspoken, even impetuous, 
Basescu. 
 
7. (SBU) Marian Vanghelie evokes images of a Southside 
Chicago ward heeler, circa 1925.  Outspoken to the point of 
brash, loudly dressed, but ever conscious of Tip O'Neil's 
axiom that "all politics is local," Vanghelie enjoys 
widespread popularity in his working class neighborhood, the 
densely populated Sector 5.  In stark contrast to the leafy 
suburbs and upscale apartment buildings of Sectors 1 and 2, 
Sector 5 has a unique profile: most of the buildings are run 
down, multi-story apartment blocs; many of its residents 
work in factories or low paying service jobs; unemployment 
is higher than in any other borough; and, it has the highest 
Roma population of any borough.  In June 2004, Vanghelie, 
running as an independent after his suspension from the PSD 
on corruption charges, crushed his challengers, easily 
winning a second mandate in the first round of voting.  In 
Sector 5, his populist, hands-on style wins him kudos from 
the people who count - the voters: he has spearheaded 
renovation of schools and apartment blocs, established 
parks, and has an efficient local machine.  As one Sector 5 
resident observed to Poloff, Vanghelie's son attends a local 
public school rather than the elite private academies where 
most wealthy Romanians (including Videanu) send their school 
age children. 
 
8.  (SBU) Beyond the borders of Sector 5, however, Vanghelie 
is viewed with suspicion and disdain by many, in large part 
because of allegations that he is corrupt, but also because 
of his "unpolished" style.  In a recent conversation with 
PolOff, one member of a civil society organization compared 
him to flamboyant soccer magnate and erstwhile presidential 
candidate Gigi Becali, noting that "he doesn't even speak 
proper Romanian." 
 
9. (SBU) Some national PSD officials cried "foul" at 
Vanghelie's selection as the party's candidate, observing 
that he reinforces the widespread image that the PSD 
countenances, even encourages, corruption within its ranks. 
Some within the party reportedly favored his outright 
expulsion rather than transparent and temporary "suspension" 
in 2004.  Nonetheless, Vanghelie's success in the 2004 
elections - about the only bright news in Bucharest for the 
PSD in that contest - coupled with his willingness to spend 
his own money on the election campaign (which most view as a 
long shot) made him a shoe-in as the PSD mayoral candidate. 
 
The "Also-Rans" 
-------------- 
10. (SBU) The other 15 candidates are mostly newcomers to 
the political scene.  One exception is long shot contender 
and ex-PSD local councilor Cristian Popescu, who decided 
initially to run as an independent, but subsequently 
received the endorsement of the National Trade Union Bloc 
(PBND).  Nicknamed "Piedone" after a rambunctious character 
from Italian cinema, dark horse Popescu paints himself as an 
advocate of the poor and a tough crime fighter.  According 
to the Social Research Bureau poll, Popescu stands at about 
14 percent in the polls. 
 
11. (SBU) The candidate of the extreme nationalist Greater 
Romania Popular Party (PPRM) is new MP Anca Petrescu, best 
known as the architect of the "House of People," the massive 
building constructed under communist dictator Nicolae 
Ceausescu that now hosts the Parliament.  The PNL-PD-allied 
Humanist Party (PUR) has endorsed Radu Opaina, the founder 
and leader of an NGO defending the rights of urban apartment 
dwellers.  Other candidates include independent candidate 
and journalist Ralu Filip and engineers, writers and 
teachers representing tiny parties. 
 
12. (SBU) Comment. Despite the high stakes, the 2005 mayoral 
campaign in Bucharest has been low key, especially compared 
to the hard-hitting contest in June 2004 between then FM 
Geoana and incumbent mayor Basescu.  Observers and pundits 
explain the apathy on the part of both professional 
politicos and ordinary citizens as a symptom of electoral 
"fatigue" following the intense electoral battles of 2004. 
Party coffers are empty and citizens are tired of electoral 
brochures, blackboards and political talk shows. The public 
agenda is also dominated by substantive issues, such as the 
fight against corruption, tax and health system reform.  The 
kidnapping of three Romanian journalists has also kept the 
mayoral race off the front pages.  Finally, despite 
Vanghelie's best efforts, most voters view Videanu's victory 
as a foregone conclusion.  Analysts predict a low turnout, 
less than 30%, which might, however, place the two main 
candidates close enough to make the second round set for 
April 10 somewhat more exciting. End comment. 
 
13. (U) Amembassy Bucharest's reporting telegrams are 
available on the Bucharest SIPRNET Website: 
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/bucharest . 
 
DELARE