US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV2010

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 002010 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2015 
TAGS: PREL, KWBG, OREP, PGOV, IS, SETTLEMENTS, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, U.S.-ISRAEL RELATIONS 
SUBJECT: GILAD TO CODEL PLATTS:  THE SECRETARY'S MESSAGE 
ABOUT MA'ALE ADUMIM IS LOUD AND CLEAR 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1. (C) Amos Gilad, director of the Political-Security Bureau 
at the Defense Ministry, told Codel Platts that Secretary 
Rice's recent statement on expanding settlements is "clear," 
and he is sure the "policy will be implemented in the most 
efficient way."  Gilad had praise for PA President Abbas, but 
charged that Prime Minister Quraya' is constantly undermining 
Abbas.  Gilad related the GOI's suspicion that the October 
2003 Gaza bombing that killed 3 Embassy Amcit security guards 
was carried out by "elements of Fatah," but said the GOI has 
"no smoking gun."  He expressed concern about an unspecified 
U.S. arms sale to Eygpt, and the possibility that democratic 
reform in Egypt could lead to an Islamic state.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (C) In a March 27 meeting in Tel Aviv, MOD 
Political-Security Director Amos Gilad briefed 
Representatives Todd Platts, Stephen Lynch and Marsha 
Blackburn (Codel Platts), and the Ambassador on GOI views of 
political conditions in the Middle East, and on 
Israeli-Palestinian relations.  Gilad's staff member, 
Danishai Kornbluth, joined the meeting, as did MFA 
representative Eyal Sela, conoff, and military escorts from 
the Codel. 
 
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Worried about Democracy, Eygpt 
------------------------------ 
 
3. (C) Gilad commented that elections would take place in 
every state in the region this year, and that he could 
already sense change in Iraq after a "relatively successful" 
election.  He said he was not as confident about Egypt.  The 
spread of democracy can be good, he said, but it could open 
the door for an Islamic state in Egypt, as in Iran.  Gilad 
subsequently expressed Israel's concern about the U.S. 
transfer of an unspecified weapons system to Egypt: "Mubarak 
is dedicated to peace... but the army can be problematic." 
 
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Syria and Lebanon 
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4. (C) Gilad said that Syria has the capability to deal with 
terror, but chooses instead to support it by allowing 
terrorist organizations to work within, and to transit, its 
territory.  He expressed skepticism about Syria's intent to 
withdraw from Lebanon, predicting that Syria would "leave 
Lebanon without leaving."  Gilad said he believes Syria was 
responsible for "the recent bombing" in Lebanon. (COMMENT: 
Gilad was unclear to which "bombing" he was referring. END 
COMMENT.) 
 
5. (C) Gilad described southern Lebanon as basically an 
independent state, which he called "Hizbollistan," with a 
talented leader (an apparent reference to Nasrallah).  He 
decried Hizbollah support for terror in Israel and cited the 
example of an IDF officer that Hizbollah recruited to kidnap 
a high GOI official.  He called for political and 
international pressure on Syria and Hizbollah. 
 
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Palestinian Authority 
--------------------- 
 
6. (C) Gilad praised PA President Abbas for his sincere 
belief that the use of violence has harmed Palestinian 
interests.  While expressing concern that Abbas, in his view, 
is more an analyst than a leader, Gilad said that Abbas 
enjoys the support of 70 percent of Palestinians and has 
changed the Palestinian popular mood.  Before Abbas came to 
power, he said, terrorist organizations would compete over 
claiming credit for terrorist acts; now, however, the groups 
try to find out whom to blame for the attacks. 
 
7. (C) Gilad said Abbas faces three major challenges: the 
municipal, PLC, and Fatah elections due to take place close 
to or during disengagement; the struggle to create a unified 
security organization to cope with terror; and PA Prime 
Minister Quraya's "hatred" of Abbas.  Gilad stressed that the 
Palestinians need more than one leader, as under Arafat, but 
that their leaders must work together, a goal that he said 
Quraya' is undermining.  Compounding Abbas' difficulties, he 
said, are efforts by Iran and Hezbollah to undercut chances 
for the roadmap to succeed. 
 
8. (C) Stressing that the United States and Congress support 
Israel, Rep. Platts asked Gilad if he thought Palestinian 
security forces would be ready for disengagement.  Rep. Lynch 
noted that Quraya' told the Codel that the PA security forces 
are "outgunned by the terrorist organizations."  Gilad called 
Quraya's statement a "total lie."  He said that the PA 
security forces have sufficient power to deal with the 
terrorist groups, but that Quraya' is undermining that power. 
 Quraya', he said, "needs to be fired" because he is 
destructive and weakening Abbas.  Gilad said he does not see 
any reforms of the PA security forces occurring.  He did, 
however, credit General Ward for getting up to speed on the 
issues very quickly. 
 
9. (C) Rep. Blackburn asked if it is possible for Israel to 
work with Abbas in ways that would strengthen him.  Gilad 
contended that Israel's efforts against terrorism help Abbas, 
but noted that Israel must always be careful not to embrace 
Abbas too strongly for fear of undermining him among his own 
people.  He indicated that the international community could 
help Abbas as well by applying pressure on Syria and Iran. 
 
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Settlement Expansion 
-------------------- 
 
10. (C) Rep. Lynch commented that Quraya' expressed 
displeasure with Israeli intentions to expand construction 
around the Ma'ale Adumin settlement, a problem he said 
Quraya' characterized as "backsliding."  Gilad repeatedly 
stated that Secretary Rice was "so clear" in her statement of 
U.S. policy on the issue, that "everything is clear" and that 
he is sure the "policy will be implemented in the most 
efficient way." 
 
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Negotiations with Egypt 
----------------------- 
 
11. (C) Gilad briefly reviewed the negotiations he is leading 
for the GOI with Egypt on the deployment of 750 Egyptian 
border guards along the Egyptian border with Gaza.  The goal 
of the deployment, he said, is for the Egyptians to stop 
smuggling through the Sinai.  The GOI is effective against 
smuggling elsewhere, he claimed, but not in the Sinai.  He 
said that seven anti-aircraft missiles were recently smuggled 
into Gaza from Egypt.  (Comment: Other reports received from 
the GOI speak of five missiles.  End comment.) 
 
---------------------- 
Embassy Convoy Bombing 
---------------------- 
 
12. (C) Rep. Lynch said he understood that Abbas has 
expressed regret over the October 2003 bombing of a U.S. 
embassy convoy in Gaza that killed three embassy Amcit 
security guards.  He told Gilad that the U.S. would 
appreciate any information that Israel can share on the case. 
 Gilad assured the Representatives that any information 
Israel receives would be shared with the U.S.  He said the 
GOI suspects elements of Fatah, but is not sure.  He accused 
Quraya' of doing nothing to discover those responsible. 
 
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Iran 
---- 
 
13. (C) Gilad said that Iran could harm the entire region 
through its support for terror, the Shiites in Iraq, and 
Hezbollah.  He predicted that Iran will increase its presence 
in Lebanon as Syria withdraws.  He said that action would be 
required within three to four months to deter Iran's 
development of nuclear weapons.  Gilad predicted that the 
June elections in Iran would see conservatives defeat the 
last vestiges of moderation in Iran.  He called for greater 
international pressure on Iran. 
 
14. (U) The Codel did not clear this message. 
 
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