US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI2470

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 002470 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/B 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: "WE ARE COMMUNISTS, BUT WE ARE NOT FOOLS:" CPI(M) 
LEADERSHIP UNLIKELY TO END SUPPORT FOR THE UPA 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 01710 
     B. NEW DELHI 1854 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake, Jr., for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (SBU) Summary: The Communist Party of India-Marxist, the 
CPI(M) or CPM, the most organized and important member of 
India's Left Front (LF), will debate whether to change its 
leadership at its April 6-12 Party Congress.  The CPI (M) 
patriarch, Harkishen Singh Surjeet, who steered the party to 
its pro-Congress stance, is 89 years old and in very poor 
health, and under pressure to step down after 13 years in 
office.  Rumors persist, however, that Surjeet is not yet 
ready to relinquish the mantle, despite being almost totally 
blind and deaf.  Prakesh Karat, the person most likely to 
replace him, is ideologically a Marxist hardliner who 
espouses a more aggressive posture toward the United 
Progressive Alliance (UPA).  Under his leadership, the party 
would likely have a more contentious relationship with the 
Congress leadership.  Despite this, his ascension would not 
significantly alter the party's relatively moderate stance 
and willingness to support the UPA coalition government over 
the near term, as he would be restrained by more moderate, 
experienced party heavyweights.  India's Communist parties 
enjoy newfound power and influence as a result of their 
association with the UPA, and are unlikely to do anything to 
jeopardize it, such as withdrawing support from the UPA, 
which would bring down the government and provide an opening 
for the BJP to return to power.  End Summary. 
 
"We Are Marxists, But We Are Not Fools" 
--------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Front-runner Prakash Karat, despite his opposition to 
direct foreign investment and privatization, is unlikely to 
change the pragmatic, calibrated CPI (M) approach to politics 
that accommodates ideological differences at local, regional, 
and national levels (Ref A).  Recognizing that it cannot at 
present replace capitalism with a socialist or communist 
economic system, the CPI (M) is focusing on more immediate 
goals, such as ensuring that the Center,s reforms do not "go 
to far," and that India's economic development does not 
"leave the poor and powerless behind."  Communist leaders 
with actual governing experience, such as West Bengal,s 
Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, are open to foreign 
and private investment for infrastructure development in the 
state as long as it  "takes care of the working class." 
Bhattacharjee, for example, has in the past asked New Delhi 
to offer special incentives for foreign investment in six 
industrially backwards districts of North Bengal.  His 
government also has worked with industrial houses to support 
the expansion West Bengal's machine tool and electronics 
sectors, and  "joined hands" with foreign investors to 
develop ports, airports, and roads. 
 
3.  (C) Karat, by contrast, is a lifelong CPI (M) functionary 
and has never run for political office -- he has never even 
seen the inside of the "bourgeois Parliament" -- or been 
responsible for the day-to-day functioning of government. 
This increases the likelihood that he will be more amenable 
to attempts by Marxist pragmatists to temper his ideological 
zeal when faced with the day to day running of the party. 
Moreover, because of Communist discipline, Karat has no 
choice but to follow the dictates of the party if it decides 
to continue along the moderate path. 
 
4.  (C) Left sources have told Poloff that the CPI(M) does 
not have a provision to force a Party president from office, 
and that Surjeet has indicated that he does not want to step 
down.  There is also considerable speculation that the 
ambitious Sitaram Yechury is the choice of powerful party 
moderates such as Jyoti Basu.  As a "cadre based" party, the 
CPI(M) prefers not to conduct party disputes in public.  If 
it cannot resolve the Yechury/Karat rivalry behind the scenes 
and out of the public eye, there may be a concensus to keep 
Surjeet on.  Several CPI(M) watchers and Forward Block MP 
Subrata Bose told Poloff that Karat is not yet ready to take 
the helm, does not have the stature and widespread respect of 
Surjeet, and is unlikely to be as adept at managing 
Communist/Congress relations, and needs several years of 
further experience. 
 
Seeking to Expand Its Support Base 
---------------------------------- 
 
4.  (SBU) If Karat were to take charge, he would likely would 
attempt to harness the Communists, growing power and popular 
momentum to push its immediate agenda and broaden its support 
base beyond the "red forts" of West Bengal, Kerala, and 
Tripura.  CPI(M) experience in West Bengal, where it has 
"creatively applied Marxism to India's society," has ensured 
its survival there for the last 27 years, and it is looking 
to build on its success, while adapting to a post-Cold War 
world, and redefining "the struggle."  In this new 
environment, the "class enemy" is no longer "capitalist 
imperialism," but the neo-liberal economic and development 
policies espoused by the US and "captive" multilateral 
lending institutions such as the World Bank and the 
International Monetary Fund.  The Communists are also moving 
away from a combative approach and towards a commitment to 
parliamentary and electoral politics, appealing to a wider 
audience. 
 
5.  (SBU) Former West Bengal Chief Minister and CPI(M) 
heavyweight Jyoti Basu admitted that the "world has changed 
where militant trade unionism has no place," and said the 
Communist parties were wrong in allowing aggressive labor 
movements during the 1980-90s.  According to Basu, Communists 
also recognize that India's traditional caste struggle 
overlaps with the socialist emphasis on "class struggle," and 
that Communists can use caste to develop a wider base of 
support.  The party has also made it clear that it will 
continue alliances with non-Communist parties -- for specific 
electoral purposes -- as it did with Congress in Maharashtra, 
the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar, and the RJD, 
Congress, and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in Jharkhand. 
CPI(M) State Secretary for West Bengal and influential 
Politburo member Anil Biswas told US officials the CPI(M) was 
"reaching out" to small, regional parties who "have no 
ideology, unlike the CPI(M)" to form coalitions, and that the 
party was focusing on developing party structure and bases in 
"other areas," such as Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, and Kashmir. 
 
6.  (U) Karat would also try to take advantage of Congress's 
recent election gaffes to siphon off disillusioned defectors 
from other parties (Ref B).  Bihar and Jharkhand, whose 
dominant political parties have been discredited in the 
recent state elections, are fertile territory for the CPI(M). 
 Communist parties have been very successful in recruiting 
new members on university campuses, but have trouble keeping 
them after they graduate and enter the workforce.  They are 
conducting an internal review to devise an effective policy 
to retain membership.  Biswas acknowleged that the CPI(M) 
"needed change" and "to bring up" new members. 
 
Challenges Ahead for CPI (M) 
---------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) The untested and inexperienced young leadership -- 
neither Karat nor Politburo member Sitram Yechury have actual 
governing experience -- may have trouble bringing the CPI(M) 
into the next generation.  Older Leftist leaders such as 
Forward Bloc MP Subrata Bose and CPI(M) icon Jyoti Basu are 
concerned that Karat will not be as adept is handling the 
Congress or even the Left Front coalition as well as Surjeet. 
 Basu, however, predicted to Poloff that "he will grow."  The 
CPI(M) has rudimentary party organization in most of India's 
urban areas and limited appeal outside of its traditional 
strongholds.  Once a favorite of the middle class because of 
its anti-establishment stance and relatively clean image, the 
party has had difficulty maintaining its appeal in an era 
when rapid economic expansion presents new opportunities for 
the urban middle class.  According to a leading Kolkata 
businessman, the trade unions, once a breeding ground for 
future Communist leaders, no longer attract the "talent," 
making it difficult for the Communist parties to groom a new 
generation of leaders.  Embassy contacts also point out that, 
because the Communist parties are unwilling to join the 
Central government, they are not an "attractive option" for 
budding leaders. 
 
8.  (U) Karat and others also face a challenge from Naxalites 
and Maoist parties, which strongly emphasize rural and 
low-caste recruitment.  Karat and the new generation leaders 
have advocated that the CPI(M) and other mainstream Communist 
parties expand into the rural areas, where Maoists and 
Naxalites have laid the foundation by cultivating support and 
educating the rural poor about Marxism. 
 
Congress/Communist Coalition 
---------------------------- 
 
9.  (SBU) Some Congress insiders are concerned that should 
the ideologically more aggressive Karat become party leader, 
the CPI(M) could withdraw support for the UPA alliance. 
Surjeet, who steered the party to a pro-Congress stance, was 
primarily focused on keeping the BJP out of power, with 
Communist cohesion a secondary factor.  Karat would place 
more emphasis on Communist cohesion and developing a more 
united Left Front alternative than worrying about a BJP 
resurgence, raising concerns that he will be less willing to 
placate the UPA.  Senior Communist leaders hope Karat will 
moderate his stance should he become party president, and 
would probably try to rein him in if they believed he was 
taking the Party and the LF in the wrong direction. 
 
10.  (C) Rajat Roy, Associate Editor of the West Bengali 
daily Anandazabar Patrika and a long-time Left observer, told 
Poloff that although in the near term Karat would not do 
anything to bring down the UPA government, over the long run, 
Karat,s appointment would negatively impact the 
Left-Congress relationship.  Karat would likely rally the 
hardline faction and marginalize the older, more moderate 
cadres.  Roy noted that Karat was a very experienced party 
insider and could "control the party" and put his supporters 
into the influential Politburo.  This could potentially 
weaken the CPI(M) over the long run, as dogmatic hardliners 
would be less willing to "change with the times" as Basu, 
Bhattacharjee, and Surjeet have done. 
 
11.  (C)  Roy also commented that Karat "doesn't like to deal 
with the Congress" and the role of intermediary, usually 
performed by the ailing Surjeet, would be delegated to Sitram 
Yechury, who "loves the camera and acting as interlocutor." 
Roy posited that the combination of Karat (the private power) 
and Yechury (the public face)  would be good for the CPI(M). 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
12.  (C) Karat's ascension may make CPI(M)/UPA cooperation 
more difficult, but is unlikely to result in a separation in 
the near future.  The party leadership makes a clear 
distinction between the political and economic agenda of the 
Congress coalition, disparaging Congress commitment to 
"neo-liberalism," while supporting Congress secularism.  This 
was typified by CPI(M) Rajya Sabha MP Nilotpal Basu who 
stated that "there is a disconnect between Congress President 
Sonia Gandhi's vision and the policies of the Government." 
 
13.  (C) Despite its "faults," the Communists overwhelmingly 
prefer secular Congress ideology to that of the "communalist 
rightists" of the BJP.  The CPI(M)'s view of Congress as a 
treacherous ally to be kept in check through constant 
brinkmanship is a philosophy that will play to Karat,s 
hardline positions.  From the UPA side, the PM has developed 
a symbiotic relationship with the Left, believing it balances 
against over-zealous reformers, and has even incorporated 
some LF ideas into UPA governance. 
 
14.  (C) Should the Left become too problematic, however, the 
PM may become more isolated and the UPA may reassess its 
strategy.  The CPI(M) leadership believes that should Karat 
try to take the party in an unpopular direction, he can be 
reined in.  The Communist parties are renowned for their 
party discipline.  Although they may have contentious 
backroom debates, Karat will ultimately follow party 
dictates. 
 
Bio Data For Prakash Karat 
-------------------------- 
 
15.  (SBU) Karat is a powerful member of the CPI(M) Politburo 
and one of India's best-known Leftists.  The relatively young 
(approximately 56 years old) and articulate CPI(M) spokesman 
has climbed to the upper ranks of a party dominated by 
octogenarians.  Karat is now seen, along with Sitaram 
Yechury, as a leadership candidate to succeed aging party 
heavyweights such as General Secretary Harkishan Singh 
Surjeet and former West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu. 
Ideologically a Marxist hardliner, Karat is a consensus 
candidate, and his election would represent an attempt to 
placate the important, but more dogmatic, Kerala 
constituency, which views Sitaram Yechury as too moderate. 
 
16.  (SBU) Karat is an ideologue opposed to foreign direct 
investment, privatization, and "interference" in Indian 
affairs by the United States and multilateral lending 
agencies such as the World Bank and IMF and remains focused 
on class struggle.  Indicative of his lack of interest in 
developing a positive relationship with the United States, he 
has reportedly stated that "India should not act as a US 
agent in South Asia."  Karat did not support the Communist 
decision to back the UPA.  Having never contested an election 
or held an government position, his hardline views are not 
tempered by executive experience, unlike many of the 
Communist leaders in West Bengal, who are more open to 
foreign investment in infrastructure in the state. 
 
17.  (SBU) Born into a middle class Hindu family of Kerala. 
He graduated from Madras Christian College before earning a 
M.A. in economics from Edinburgh University, Scotland.  After 
returning to India, he attended the Jawaharlal Nehru 
University (JNU), then the Mecca of Indian Marxists, as an 
M.Phil/Ph.D. student, but did not complete his degree.  Drawn 
to politics since his campus days in Chennai, Karat was 
elected President of the JNU Students Union in the 1970s 
before plunging into full-time CPI (M) politics.  He was 
initiated into politics by communist veteran, A.K. Gopalan, 
and was closely associated with the first Communist Chief 
Minister of Kerala, E.M.S. Namboodaripad.  He has authored 
and edited several books, including "World To Win," a volume 
of essays explaining the relevance of the communist 
manifesto.  Karat is married to Brinda Karat, a well-known 
feminist leader.  He described by US officials as urbane, 
sophisticated, and a good organizer. 
MULFORD