US embassy cable - 05HARARE492

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 000492 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2015 
TAGS: ZI, PGOV, MDC, March 05 Elections 
SUBJECT: MDC TAKES EARLY URBAN LEAD BUT ALLEGES FRAUD; 
CONSIDERS OPTIONS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell 
Reason 1.4(b) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C)  Summary: Early election returns show that the MDC 
has won 28 of the first 32 announced seats.  However, almost 
all of these wins were in urban areas, taking all 7 seats in 
Bulawayo and 16 of 17 announced in Harare.  Despite the early 
official results, MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai was 
downbeat in both his discussion with the Ambassador and in 
his mid-morning press conference, alleging fraud and implying 
that ZANU-PF had manipulated the vote in rural areas.  He 
predicted a "status quo" result when all of the seats are 
counted.  Others predict that the MDC may lose its 
constitutional blocking minority in Parliament. 
 
2.  (C)  Tsvangirai publicly called on the people of Zimbabwe 
to "defend their vote," but stopped short of calling for mass 
action.  In their private conversation, the Ambassador made 
clear that Washington would have to determine whether and how 
the U.S. could support an eventual civil disobedience 
campaign.  Turnout figures are incomplete, but appear to be 
less than 40 percent and marked by high levels of rejected 
voters, 10 percent nationwide, which appears to have been a 
deliberate ZANU-PF tactic to deny MDC votes.  Embassy and 
independent observers noted other instances of intimidation 
and potential fraud, especially in rural areas, that support 
Tsvangirai's claims.  End Summary. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
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CLEAR URBAN VICTORIES FOR THE MDC... 
------------------------------------ 
 
3.  (SBU)  As of noon local time, the Zimbabwe Electoral 
Commission has called 28 of 32 early races in favor of MDC 
candidates.  The MDC took all 7 seats in Bulawayo, with their 
candidates averaging around 80 percent of the vote.  In 
Harare, the MDC took 16 of 18 seats.  One seat, 
Tafara-Mabvuku, is still pending, while ZANU-PF candidate 
Hubert Nyanhongo upset MDC candidate James Mushonga in Harare 
South by about 800 votes out of over 22,000 cast.  Contests 
were generally tighter in Harare than Bulawayo, with several 
ZANU-PF candidates claiming over a third of the vote.  MDC 
candidates also have won the urban districts of Mutare 
Central, Mutare North, and Masvingo Central.  The other three 
announced ZANU-PF victories are in largely rural 
constituencies. 
 
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...BUT TSVANGIRAI DOWNCAST 
-------------------------- 
 
4.  (C)  MDC head Morgan Tsvangirai called the Ambassador 
Friday morning to discuss early election results and the 
party's next steps.  A downcast Tsvangirai said despite the 
promising early results, the trend appeared to be toward the 
status quo.  He said the MDC had expected to do well in the 
urban constituencies.  However, early returns from Masvingo 
seemed to indicate that the party had failed to achieve the 
hoped for breakthrough in that province.  He said fraud was 
the key factor.  In Manyame constituency in Mashonaland West, 
for instance, the original Zimbabwe Election Commission (ZEC) 
voter count yesterday had 14,812 voters.  However, today's 
official results had over 23,000 voters, with the seat going 
to ZANU-PF. 
 
5.  (C)  Tsvangirai said there were no results as yet from 
the other principal battleground, Midlands province, but if 
the same trend were seen there, it would be very difficult 
for the MDC to get to its goal of 61 seats, a majority of the 
contested seats.  Tsvangirai told the Ambassador that he 
hoped to build momentum among MDC supporters to challenge the 
official results.  The Ambassador asked if Tsvangirai judged 
a civil disobedience campaign could succeed.  A seemingly 
dispirited Tsvangirai responded that he was unsure but that 
the MDC needed to try.  When asked if the U.S. would support 
such a campaign, the Ambassador repeated his message of 
Wednesday night: he could make no commitments without 
Washington's approval. 
 
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TSVANGIRAI"S PRESS CONFERENCE 
 
SIPDIS 
----------------------------- 
 
6.  (SBU)  At 1100 local time, Tsvangirai held a press 
conference at MDC Headquarters in Harare and publicly accused 
the GOZ and the ZANU-PF party of stealing the elections.  He 
noted the discrepancies in Manyame and said the MDC had clear 
evidence of similar fraud in many constituencies, especially 
rural ones.  He cited a number of constituencies that ZANU-PF 
had "stolen:" namely Hwedwa, Beitbridge, Chimanimani, 
Chipenge North, and Chegutu.  Tsvangirai rejected criticism 
of MDC's decision to participate in an unequal election, 
saying it had been the "people's choice" that MDC run.  He 
noted the high percentage of rejected voters nationwide and 
called on the people of Zimbabwe to "defend their vote." 
However, he declined to go as far as to call for mass action, 
saying simply that he had a "plan," and that it would not be 
the failed legal route the MDC had followed after the 2000 
elections. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
HIGH LEVELS OF REJECTED VOTERS; SOME INTIMIDATION 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
7.  (SBU)  Although figures are incomplete, turnout 
nationwide appears to have been low.  The most recent figures 
for 6 available provinces show turnout at 39 percent with 
Bulawayo at just 31 percent.  This low turnout appears to be 
partly a reflection of an inflated voter roll.  However, it 
also reflects the high percentage of rejected voters, which 
the ZEC acknowledged averaged 10 percent nationwide.  ZESN, 
Embassy and EU observers noted that in some areas, MDC 
strongholds and close seats, the rejection rate was 20 to 25 
percent.  Most voters were rejected because, due to 
redistricting, they had tried to vote in the wrong 
constituency and no longer appeared on the voter rolls. 
These individuals were unable to cast a ballot. 
 
8.  (SBU)  Most Embassy and ZESN observers said polling 
appeared to be calm and orderly.  However, there has been a 
growing number of reported cases of intimidation at or around 
polling stations the day after the election: 
 
--MDC Acting Elections Director Lucia Matibenga said there 
were instances of MDC polling agents being harassed, and that 
the party was looking into claims of violence in rural areas. 
 
--A Canadian observer said he saw men who appeared to be 
police officers taking names of voters outside a station in 
Zvimba (Mashonaland West). 
 
--In Kadoma, Embassy observers noted that three stations had 
tables outside the 100 meter perimeter manned by unidentified 
individuals who asked voters for their names and ID numbers 
and had papers with constituents' names.  Polling officials 
said the tables were outside their jurisdiction. 
 
--At a station in Manicaland, Embassy observers noted a stack 
of mealie meal about 100 meters from the polling station. 
They were told that the Grain Marketing Board was 
distributing it, but while no official from the Board was 
present, the presiding election official repeatedly walked 
back and forth to the stack. 
 
--In Mt. Darwin South, Embassy observers spoke with the local 
MDC candidate, who told them that ZANU-PF incumbent-and 
well-known thug-Saviour Kasukwere had been intimidating 
voters, and had threatened kombi drivers into not 
transporting MDC polling agents into the field.  Embassy 
observers also saw a local headman, who also happened to be 
the ZANU-PF polling agent, being given a copy of the voter 
roll. 
 
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COMMENT 
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9.  (C)  The MDC's growing momentum and the Zimbabwean 
people's yearning for change may have been thwarted yet 
again.  That said, we are skeptical that Tsvangirai's Plan B 
will have much resonance given a "status quo" result.  We 
have argued all along that given the prevailing conditions, 
such a result is a victory for the MDC.  Instead of crumbling 
under ZANU-PF's onslaught of the past five years, and despite 
the highly uneven electoral playing field, the party will 
have held its ground.  Moreover, whether the MDC gets 51 or 
61 seats doesn't alter the fundamental post-election reality. 
 They will have prevented a two-thirds ZANU-PF majority and 
set the table for renewed intra-party talks on the 
Constitution.  A more dire prediction, from the UK Embassy, 
is that the MDC will end up with fewer than 51 seats and will 
lose its ability to block constitutional change.  In any 
event, we will need to put the pressure on President Mugabe 
to recognize the MDC as a legitimate and permanent part of 
Zimbabwe's political landscape and to negotiate accordingly. 
Dell