US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK2351

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002351 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/BCLTV. HQ US PACOM FOR FPA (HUSO). SEOUL 
FOR AMBASSADOR HILL. 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2014 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, TH, Southern Thailand, NRC - National Reconciliation Committee 
SUBJECT: THAILAND: STAFFDEL JANUZZI VISIT TO FAR SOUTH 
 
REF: A. BANGKOK 2255 
 
     B. BANGKOK 1008 
     C. 04 BANGKOK 8377 
     D. 04 BANGKOK 7171 
     E. 04 BANGKOK 6647 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert J. Clarke. Reason 1.4 (d) 
 
1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  On March 28-29, Senate Foreign Relations 
Committee professional staff member Frank Januzzi visited 
Thailand's southernmost Muslim majority provinces.  Januzzi 
spoke with a variety of interlocutors and heard local views 
on the origins and nature of the continuing unrest, cautious 
assessments about the prospects for success of the newly 
appointed National Reconciliation Commission (NRC), concerns 
about the deteriorating relations between the Buddhist and 
Muslim communities, and local assessments that offers of U.S. 
assistance could be counterproductive.  END SUMMARY 
 
2.  (C)  On March 28-29 Senate Foreign Relations Committee 
professional staff member Frank Januzzi visited Thailand's 
far southern provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani, and Songkhla 
as part of an effort to understand the ongoing violence in 
the region.  Januzzi met with several local journalists, 
leaders of the Narathiwat Islamic Committee (NIC), Muslim 
academics from Prince of Songkhla University - Pattani and 
the Pattani Vice Governor for Security.  Embassy Bangkok 
Poloff accompanied Januzzi on his visit. 
 
UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT VIOLENCE - WE'VE BEEN HERE BEFORE 
 
3.  (C)  Many of Januzzi's interlocutors pointed out the 
importance of keeping the violence in southern Thailand in 
context because, as members of the Narathiwat Islamic 
Committee (NIC) emphasized, separatist related violence has 
been occurring in southern Thailand for over 100 years.  At 
Prince of Songkhla University (PSU) Dr. Ibrahem 
Narongraksaket, the head of the Islamic Affairs Division, 
said he is greatly concerned about the current level of 
violence.  He emphasized, however, that some level of 
violence is inevitable in southern Thailand given the 
historical and ethnic realities of the region.  Pattani based 
journalist Paret Lohansen agreed that while there is a 
current upsurge of violence, it is important to bear in mind 
that conflict between local ethnically Malay-Thais and the 
central Thai government has been going on in the South for 
several generations. 
 
WHY HAS THE VIOLENCE INCREASED IN THE SOUTH? 
 
4.  (C)  The Deputy Chairmen of the NIC told Jannuzzi that 
they believe that the recent cycle of violence in the south 
originated with Prime Minister Thaksin's anti-narcotics 
campaign in early 2003.  They said that locals seeking 
revenge for extra-judicial killings and arbitrary arrests by 
police entered into a cycle of violence.  They say the cycle 
of revenge and government retribution was reinforced after 
the mass arrests of local Muslims following the armory raid 
in January, 2004 and the Tak Bai incident in October, 2004, 
in which 78 Muslim detainees died from suffocation while 
being transported to an Army camp.  They believe this cycle 
will continue, given the deep animosity felt by many young 
Muslims in the South towards Thai security forces. 
 
5.  (C)  Waeda-o Harai, a respected local journalist, blamed 
Thaksin administration bungling for increasing violence in 
the region.  He said the government has steadfastly ignored 
sensible local solutions while focusing on a security-based 
approach.  He opined that the heavy RTG security presence is 
increasing the local populace's estrangement from the 
government.  Chaiyong Manerrungsakul, Chairman of the 
Southern Thailand Journalist Association, agreed that the 
RTG's "security first" approach was fueling the violence. 
Chaiyong said that the imposition of martial law in 
particular is increasing local resentment of the central 
government. 
 
6.  (C)  Dr. Ibrahem said the number of actual militants 
committed to violence in the South is very small.  Ibrahem 
believes that the militants have still not been able to 
convince the general population to support them.  However, 
government abuses under martial law reinforce feelings of 
"injustice" widely felt by local Muslims, opening them to 
greater sympathy towards the radicals (reftel E).  Ibrahem 
said economic factors are not behind the violence (reftel B). 
 He noted that southern Thailand, unlike other areas of the 
world experiencing intra-communal strife, does not have 
problems with limited natural resources, widespread 
unemployment or hunger.  At the heart of resentment is the 
local population's deeply felt feeling of "injustice" by the 
central government. 
 
LUKEWARM ENDORSEMENT OF THE NRC 
 
7.  (C)  Januzzi and poloff found most local observers 
cautiously optimistic about the likely success of the 
National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) (reftel A).  The 
journalist Waeda-o said that many people in the south were 
hopeful about the NRC, but are concerned that local Muslims 
are underrepresented.  The Narathiwat Islamic Committee (NIC) 
members approved of the NRC's mission (NOTE: Abduraman 
Abdulsamad, the NIC Chairman, was selected as an NRC member) 
and are hopeful that the commission will develop effective 
strategies.  The NIC also believes, however, that southern 
Muslims are underrepresented on the commission.  The 
journalist Paret is not optimistic about the success of Anand 
Panyarachun's NRC, even with the respected former prime 
minister at its helm.  He noted that many studies on the 
south have been commissioned in the past but recommendations 
have never been implemented by the government. 
 
BUDDHIST AND MUSLIM RELATIONS -- GETTING WORSE 
 
8.  (C)  Staffdel Januzzi heard concerns reported in past 
Embassy visits to the far South (reftels C,D,E) that 
relations between the Buddhist and Muslim communities are 
deteriorating.  NIC members acknowledged that relations 
between the Buddhist and Muslim communities were not as good 
as they were in the past.  They blamed government security 
forces for increasing divisions between the communities by 
acting as if they were on the ground only to protect 
Buddhists. 
 
9.  (C)  The journalists Paret and Chaiyong reported that 
they continue to hear steady anecdotal reports of ethnic 
Chinese-Thai and Buddhist-Thais leaving the south.  Chaiyong 
noted that many non-Muslim families were using the current 
break in school terms to remove their children from schools 
in the three southernmost provinces.  Chaiyong said that the 
top non-Islamic primary school in Narathiwat province only 
had 16 student enrolled for the next term. 
 
HOW CAN THE U.S. HELP? -- BY NOT HELPING 
 
10.  (C)  Staffdel Januzzi inquired about possible assistance 
the U.S. government could provide to help resolve the 
situation in southern Thailand, and was repeatedly told that 
most forms of U.S. assistance would be counterproductive. 
The journalist Paret noted the strong and widely held belief 
in the South that the U.S. was somehow fomenting the violence 
for its own ends (reftels).   Paret said that any U.S. 
assistance, no matter how benign, would reinforce the rumors 
of U.S. involvement. 
 
11.  (C)  Prasit Meksuwan, Secretary-General of the Teachers 
Confederation of Southern Thailand, and a member of the NRC, 
echoed these concerns.  He suggested that the best way the 
U.S. can help in the south is by maintaining our distance. 
He suggested that the way the U.S. can build credibility with 
southern Muslims is by continuing to challenge the Thaksin 
government publicly over egregious human rights abuses.  He 
noted that Muslims in the South were greatly appreciative of 
the latest U.S. Human Rights Report (HRR) which "bravely" 
addressed recent abuses by the RTG.  He suggested that the 
U.S. translate the HRR into the local "Yawi" dialect to allow 
for widespread dissemination. 
 
12.  (U) Staffdel Januzzi did not have an opportunity to 
clear this message. 
ARVIZU