US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK2322

UNCLAS BANGKOK 002322 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/BCLTV. HQ USPACOM FOR FPA (HUSO) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TH, Southern Thailand 
SUBJECT: THAILAND: THAKSIN SIGNALS SHIFT IN SOUTH POLICY 
 
REF: BANGKOK 2255 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary:  On March 30, Prime Minister Thaksin, 
speaking to a joint session of parliament, surprised the 
political establishment by suggesting that the RTG would take 
a less security focused approach towards Thailand's troubled 
far south.  Thaksin's conciliatory tone, with statements such 
as "violence only begets violence," is a dramatic shift away 
from past tough talk about the south.  On March 31, Thaksin 
indicated that troops would have a less visible presence in 
the South, but would not, as some reports had indicated, be 
withdrawn.  Thaksin's conciliatory speech, and the recent 
formation of a National Reconciliation Commission, or NRC 
(reftel), are positive developments for a region that has 
received or produced only bad news of late.  However, 
Thaksin's promise to use a less security focused approach 
might meet with some internal resistance from Thai security 
forces.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU)  On March 30, Prime Minister Thaksin addressed a 
rare joint session of parliament.  He had convoked the 
special session to debate the violence-plagued far south of 
Thailand.  Thaksin, showing uncharacteristic humility, 
admitted to policy missteps in the region, "I am now 
determined to undo what I have done wrong in the past."   The 
Prime Minister also backed down from his usual tough 
rhetoric, agreeing with critics that a less security focused 
approach was called for, "violence only breeds violence" he 
said. 
 
3.  (SBU)  Thaksin was also surprisingly conciliatory towards 
opposition leader Aphisit Vejjajiva, saying the Democrat 
Party leader's views on the South "are mostly consistent with 
my thinking."  Continuing his praise for his main political 
rival Thaksin said, "I admire your presentation and accept 
all your 9-point proposed approach to the southern unrest for 
further implementation."  (Note: The 9-point Democrat plan 
calls for the government to: 1) cancel plans to withhold 
government development funding from "red zone" villages 
blamed for harboring militants; 2) increase development 
projects; 3) name a civilian official, vice military, to 
coordinate regional government programs; 4) compensate 
victims of the violence; 5) improve the southern economy; 6) 
improve education in the South; 7) encourage local officials 
to learn about Islamic culture; 8) allow international 
organizations to access the South to help; 9) follow the 
advice of the National Reconciliation Commission (NRC).  End 
Note.) 
 
4.  (SBU)  Thaksin also reiterated his public endorsement of 
the 48-member National Reconciliation Commission which, under 
the leadership of Anand Panyarachun, a highly respected and 
politically independent former Prime Minister, is tasked with 
developing policy recommendations for the troubled south. 
Thaksin said, "I would like to see it use its independent 
role, offer diverse views and dimensions, and I confirm full 
governmental support and readiness to respond to its 
requests." 
 
5.  (SBU)  Speaking to reporters on March 31, Thaksin seemed 
to indicate that troops would be "withdrawn" from the far 
south as part of the government's new strategy.  He said 
"adjustments are imminent."  However, the military was quick 
to clarify that "adjustments" did not mean that actual troop 
levels would be reduced in the south; instead troops would 
have a less visible presence, or would work on civil-military 
projects instead of security missions only.  General Sirichai 
Tunyasiri, who heads the Southern Border Provinces 
Peace-building Command (SBPPC) and acts as the coordinator 
for all Thai security forces in the region, said that troops 
would be repositioned in the South, but "absolutely will not 
be pulled out of the region." 
 
7.  (SBU)  Comment:  Thaksin's assuaging remarks in front of 
both houses of Parliament are a welcome change from past 
rhetoric or inflammatory off-the-cuff remarks about the 
south.  The Prime Minister's apparent new policy flexibility 
on the south, coupled with the appointment of the politically 
independent NRC, are positive signs that the administration 
may be learning from the policy failures of the last two 
years.  However, if he tries to move too far away from a 
security-based strategy for the South, Thaksin could face 
internal resistance from hard-liners within the RTG security 
forces.  This seems to be the implication of the rapid 
clarification by the SBPPC that no troops would actually be 
withdrawn from the troubled far south.  End Comment. 
ARVIZU