US embassy cable - 05TEGUCIGALPA697

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEGUCIGALPA 000697 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA, WHA/USOAS, AND WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2006 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AORC, HO, OAS 
SUBJECT: OAS SYG: GOH BELIEVES DERBEZ AND INSULZA HAVE 
SOLID CARICOM SUPPORT, BUT USG CAN STILL SWAY OUTCOME 
 
 
Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Francisco Palmieri; 
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Honduran Foreign Minister Leonidas Rosa Bautista and 
Senior MFA advisor AMB Policarpo Callejas told POLCOUNS on 
March 30 that next week's OAS SYG race will hinge on the 
ability of the U.S. to swing the votes of CARICOM nations. 
Callejas added that Honduras expected the U.S. would be able 
to sway the CARICOM votes at the end of the day to ensure 
Flores' election. 
 
2. (C) Nonetheless, FM Bautista said that Mexican FM Derbez 
and Chilean FM Insulza have seven and six committed CARICOM 
votes respectively.  When pressed by POLCOUNS that the USG 
believed that former Salvadoran President Francisco "Paco" 
Flores had some CARICOM votes, both replied that he did not 
have committed votes for the first round of voting.  Callejas 
then stated that they had seen at least some written 
(although not quantified or specified) CARICOM commitments 
for Derbez and Insulza. 
 
3. (C) Both conceded that a first round victory for any 
candidate seemed less and less likely, although they believe 
Derbez has 14 committed votes, including Haiti's.  When asked 
if Honduras was prepared to support Flores candidacy in 
subsequent voting rounds, FM Rosa Bautista said that Honduras 
would have a difficult time voting for Flores under almost 
any scenario and would likely stick with Derbez.  POLCOUNS 
suggested that Honduran support for Flores in a second or 
third round of voting could prove pivotal in the SYG 
selection process.  FM Bautista took the point but did not 
offer any opening that Honduras might switch its vote. 
Palmer