US embassy cable - 05AMMAN2694

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002694 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, JO 
SUBJECT: AMMAN BUZZES WITH RUMORS OF IMPENDING GOVERNMENT 
CHANGE 
 
REF: A. AMMAN 2557 (NOTAL) 
 
     B. AMMAN 2382 
     C. AMMAN 2297 
     D. AMMAN 2044 
     E. AMMAN 0585 
 
Classified By: CDA David Hale for Reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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1.  (C) There is widespread public speculation that King 
Abdullah plans to overhaul his cabinet.  The recent crisis in 
Jordanian-Iraqi relations and missteps at the Arab League 
Summit in Algiers have fueled rumors that the King is ready 
to dismiss PM al-Fayez and FM al-Mulki.  End Summary. 
 
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ON THE WAY OUT? 
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2.  (C) Rumors of an impending change in government have been 
the center of discussion in West Amman salons in recent days, 
as well as the subject of local press articles.  While the 
Jordanian elite has been trading gossip for months about 
royal dissatisfaction with current PM Faisal al-Fayez and his 
inability to control his ministers (ref E), speculation on a 
cabinet change has redoubled following perceived GOJ missteps 
in the handling of the row with Iraq and the "revitalization" 
of an Arab League peace initiative.  Several contacts have 
roundly criticized the government for letting a press story 
on terrorist Raed Al-Banna escalate tensions to the point 
where both Jordan and Iraq recalled their diplomatic envoys 
(refs B and C).  In the view of many Jordanians, the fact 
that King Abdullah had to personally intervene from the U.S. 
and order the return of the Jordanian Charge to Baghdad was 
an embarrassment to Fayez (and FM Hani al-Mulki) and a sign 
that his days as PM are numbered. 
 
3.  (C) Tongues have also been wagging over the prospects of 
FM Mulki.  His attempt to relaunch the Arab League's peace 
initiative (adopted in Beirut in 2002) at the 
recently-concluded AL summit in Algiers became the subject of 
considerable controversy and confusion.  Asked about Saudi 
anger at alleged Jordanian modifications to the Beirut 
statement, King Abdullah told London-based Arabic daily Al 
Hayat that there had been a "misunderstanding" because Mulki 
"did not clearly express himself to his Saudi counterpart." 
The King's statement has been widely interpreted as evidence 
that Mulki is skating on thin ice -- or in fact, has crashed 
through it.  King Abdullah has carefully nurtured Saudi 
relations during his reign and is seeking oil assistance from 
Riyadh, making Mulki's fumble all the more damaging to the 
King personally.  An emergency cabinet meeting on March 28 
added fuel to the Mulki gossip mill.  Journalists reported 
rumors that the meeting discussed Mulki's tendered 
resignation, and/or was a last-ditch attempt to get the GOJ 
to put its affairs in orders, to the extent that the 
government spokesperson was compelled to deny he had 
resigned. 
 
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WHO'S IN? 
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4.  (C) Speculation about a new PM to replace Fayez has 
(wrongly) centered on Saad Khair (Director of the General 
Intelligence Directorate).  Press articles and dinner party 
conversations would have Khair as the clear front-runner 
among several contenders.  Arabic weekly Al Majd, for 
example, reported that according to "informed sources," the 
King will likely assign Khair to form a new cabinet. 
Political and human rights activists have expressed strong 
reservations about Khair as PM.  They contend that installing 
the current chief of intelligence as head of the government 
would send the wrong signal on democratic reform.  (COMMENT: 
Charge is confident Khair will not be chosen, see ref A.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
5.  (C) Meanwhile, government business is proceeding as 
usual, including the current push for greater public 
transparency.  The Central Bank confirmed to Arabic daily 
Al-Ghad on March 29 that it had rejected a proposal from 
former PM Ali Abul al-Ragheb to establish a new bank (ref D) 
despite rumors that back-room maneuvering had closed the 
deal.  Ragheb told reporters that he had not yet received any 
formal document from the Central Bank and that a negative 
decision would "violate" his understanding with Bank 
officials. 
HALE