US embassy cable - 05HARARE488

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000488 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF DAS WOODS; AF/S BRUCE NEULING 
NSC PLS PASS TO SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE 
DEPARTMENT PASS EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, ZI, MDC, March 05 Elections 
SUBJECT: MDC HEAD PREDICTS VICTORY AND ASKS SUPPORT 
 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHRISTOPHER W. DELL, REASON 1.4 b/d 
 
 
 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) In a midnight meeting with the Ambassador on March 30, 
MDC leader Morgan Tsvagirai predicted that his party would 
win a majority of the contested seats in the next day,s 
parliamentary elections.  He said he would hold a press 
conference on Friday afternoon, April 1, to claim a 
democratic mandate and asked for a strong statement of 
support from the United States.  The Ambassador responded 
that if the MDC won a clear majority of the contested seats, 
we would support his claim to a democratic mandate.  He added 
that in our view, President Mugabe would have to be held 
responsible for any post-election violence that resulted from 
GOZ electoral fraud.  End Summary. 
 
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MDC Will Win Big 
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2. (C) Tsvangirai said he had just returned from a final 
campaign swing.  He was tired but elated by the enthusiastic 
crowds he and his party had drawn in the campaign,s final 
weeks.  The momentum was with his party and ZANU-PF knew it 
and was gearing itself for defeat.  ZANU-PF was saddled with 
bad candidates and a bad campaign and their support was 
noticeably flagging.  Nathan Shamuyarira, Politburo member 
and ZANU-PF Secretary for Information and Publicity had 
publicly acknowledged that his party might win only 57 seats. 
 Tsvangirai said that result would already leave the MDC with 
a majority of the contested seats, but he thought they could 
do even better. 
 
3. (C) Tsvangirai said that in that event he would claim a 
democratic mandate.  His party would have won a majority of 
the contested seats and in any democratic country that should 
give it the right to form the next government.  He would hold 
a press conference on Friday, probably around noon, when he 
was fairly sure of the final tally, to call upon President 
Mugabe to recognize the MDC victory and to begin negotiations 
on transition arrangements. 
 
4. (C) Tsvangirai said Mugabe would doubtless argue that he 
was elected through 2008 and he would rely on the 30 
appointed seats to maintain ZANU-PF control of Parliament. 
Tsvangirai said MDC had no preconceived agenda for 
 
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negotiations.  However, it would not join a government of 
national unity and would argue that 30 appointed seats should 
be ignored.  He acknowledged that a key moment could come 
when the new Parliament was seated some two weeks after the 
election.  The Ambassador asked what role Tsvangirai foresaw 
for South African President Mbkei, to which Tsvangirai 
replied little or none given his open support for Mugabe and 
ZANU-PF. 
 
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Appeals for U.S Support 
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5. (C) Tsvangirai asked that the U.S. come out strongly in 
support of his claim of a democratic mandate.  The Ambassador 
responded that in the event the MDC won a clear majority of 
the contested seats he could count on our support.  The 
Ambassador said he would also hold a press conference on 
Friday, at 11:00.  His purpose was to be among the first to 
publicly comment on the election ) drawing on the Embassy,s 
extensive observation efforts ) and thereby frame the 
subsequent debate.  He asked to speak with Tsvangirai in 
advance to coordinate messages.  He added that the U.S. would 
likely issue an official statement at the noon State 
Department press briefing in Washington that day.  We hoped 
at both his press conference and in the statement to say that 
despite the obstacles the GOZ had placed in their way, the 
Zimbabwean people had spoken and the voice had to be heard 
and respected by the nation's leaders. 
 
6. (S) The Ambassador asked what the MDC would do in the 
event fraud prevented an MDC victory.  Tsvangirai said he did 
not expect such a result and hoped to avoid any violence but 
that contingency plans were being made.  The Ambassador 
stressed that the U.S. would not encourage a Ukraine-like 
campaign of civil disobedience, but that if one gathered 
momentum of its own accord we would look to Washington for 
guidance on ways to be supportive.  He added that in our 
view, the responsibility lay with Mugabe to avoid violence by 
ensuring that the will of the Zimbabwean people was 
accurately reflected in the election,s results and that he 
not destabilize the country by setting off a wave of angry 
protests in response to election fraud. 
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Comment 
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7. (C) Win, lose, or draw, Tsvangirai has raised his stature 
within Zimbabwe and within the region over the past month as 
he has personally led a resurgent and better organized MDC to 
the cusp of a historic electoral outcome.  More than ever, he 
appears to have what it takes to lead this country in a 
democratic direction.  However, no one, least of all 
Tsvangirai, is under any illusions about the long, difficult 
 
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road ahead.  Robert Mugabe hasn,t survived as president of 
this country for twenty-five years without an abundance of 
nerve and guile.  Regardless of the outcome of this election, 
our task remains to find ways to support Tsvangirai, the MDC, 
and other democrats in their crusade to free this country. 
 
Dell 
Dell