US embassy cable - 05MUMBAI876

UNCLAS MUMBAI 000876 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, ECON, PHUM, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: GUJARAT CHIEF MINISTER MODI SURVIVES, FOR NOW 
 
REF: A)  MUMBAI 756;  B) NEW DELHI 2140 
 
1. (U) Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi has successfully 
fended off another attempt by dissidents within his own party to 
dislodge him.  The leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party 
(BJP), headed by party president LK Advani, met with a 
delegation of Modi's opponents in the Gujarat BJP on March 31 in 
New Delhi.  Following the meeting former party president M 
Venkaiah Naidu told the media that there was no need for a 
leadership change in Gujarat and that the leadership question 
had not been discussed with the rebels.  Naidu also indirectly 
admonished Modi's critics for publicly airing their criticism of 
the chief minister and his leadership style in recent weeks. 
 
2. (U) Naidu did say, however, that the BJP would address the 
dissidents' grievances. Observers took this to mean that the 
party may give jobs in the state cabinet or in the state party 
leadership to some of the key dissidents.  The BJP leadership or 
spokesmen for the dissidents did not indicate when any changes 
would be announced, but one of our contacts said it could take 
place following meetings of the national BJP leadership in the 
coming week. 
 
3. (SBU) Over half of the BJP faction in the Gujarat parliament 
are unhappy with Modi for what they say are the chief minister's 
heavy handed leadership methods (ref A).  They claim that the 
chief minister has centralized far too much power within the 
Prime Minister's Office.  For example, Modi has personally 
assumed responsibility for key cabinet portfolios including the 
Home (Internal Affairs) Industry, Ports, Petrochemicals and 
Information Ministries.  Some of his critics have accused Modi 
of intimidating inner-party opponents and wiretapping their 
phones. 
 
4. (SBU) In meeting with the dissidents on March 31, the 
national BJP leadership fulfilled a promise it had made after a 
series of highly visible protests by the dissidents in early 
March.  The internal opposition to Modi, as well as the party 
leadership's offer to speak with the dissidents, predates the 
USG decision to deny Modi a visa (ref B).  According to our 
information the visa issue had not influenced the timing of the 
meeting and was, if at all discussed, not a major topic. 
 
Comment 
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5. (SBU) The central BJP leadership's decision to back Modi 
after meeting with the dissidents came as no surprise to us 
since BJP leader Advani had repeatedly supported Modi in public 
in the face of the growing inner-party opposition in recent 
weeks.  It does appear, however, that the party, and Modi, are 
willing to make certain concessions to the rebels in an effort 
to quiet a rebellion that has refused to go away, despite all 
threats by Modi and despite admonishments by the central 
leadership.  We expect these concessions to involve some sort of 
devolution of power.  Key dissidents may receive cabinet 
positions or important jobs in the state party leadership.  For 
the time being, therefore, Modi's position appears to be safe. 
However, concessions may not quiet Modi's opponents for long. 
Many of his critics appear to be determined to oust the chief 
minister at any cost.  They may see the concessions as a sign of 
Modi's growing weakness.  New Delhi Poloff reports that BJP 
leaders there did not expect Modi to be dismissed in the 
aftermath of his problems with the governments of the US and UK, 
as the party's nationalist wing would see this as caving in to 
foreign manipulation in India's internal affairs.  Post will 
report on the Gujarat political scene's reaction to the March 31 
announcements septel. 
 
SIMMONS